International CLIVAR update (Prospects for 2009-2013)

1. International CLIVAR update(Prospects for 2009-2013) Jim Hurrell Howard Cattle, Tim Palmer, Martin Visbeck and Valery Detemmerman jhurrell@ucar.edu International CLIVAR Co-Chair National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO USA US CLIVAR Summit 15-17 July 2008 Irvine, CA

2. Outline Overview of CLIVAR Activities, Achievements and Plans Contributions to WCRP cross-cuts See CLIVAR Report to JSC-29 Discussion 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference Future evolution of CLIVAR (and WCRP)

4. ACC – IPCC AR4 • Prominent display of CLIVAR science • Leadership role as CLAs, LAs, and CAs • Nobel Peace Prize Activities and Achievements WGCM: CMIP3 multi-model dataset – coordination of integrations, data collection, and analysis for IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., BAMS, 2007) 16 modeling groups, 23 models, 35+ Tb data Access: 1,000+ scientists / 300+ papers GSOP: Carbon data synthesis GO-SHIP Basins panels Impact of climate change on natural modes Abrupt climate change (AIP)

5. Activities and Achievements Decadal Prediction WGCM-WGSIP/IGBP (AIMES): Development of Decadal Prediction Experiments Aspen Global Change Institute Workshop Climate Prediction to 2030: Is it possible, what are the scientific issues, and how would those predictions be used? June 23-28, 2008 Gerald Meehl, Ron Stouffer, Lisa Goddard, and James Murphy

6. Decadal Prediction AIP: Coordinated Monitoring/Predictability of AMOC Activities and Achievements Cunningham et al. 2007 Hurrell et al. 2008: Courtesy Tom Delworth

7. Decadal Prediction Activities and Achievements GSOP: Assessment of quality of ocean syntheses 2nd Synthesis Evaluation Workshop (MIT, 9/07) Mid-Lat Upper Ocean Atlantic Anomalies (Upper 300 m) Temp  Salinity 

8. Seasonal Prediction WGSIP: WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction Barcelona, Spain June 2007 Activities and Achievements • What factors are limiting our ability to improve seasonal • predictions for societal benefit? • What factors are limiting our ability to use seasonal predictions • for societal benefit? • 180 Attendees from across WCRP, 30 Countries • Maximum Predictability Has Not Been Achieved • Interactions within climate system components (cf GEWEX, SPARC, CliC) • WCRP position paper on Seasonal Prediction

9. The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project • Objectives • Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best • available models and data for initialization • Provide framework for assessing current and planned observing systems • Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model improvements • Provide experimental framework for focused research on how various • components of the climate system interact and affect one another • Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction • Certain elements of the CHFP are already part of various WCRP activities • e.g., GLACE-2, SPARC & CliC activities, JSC Decadal Prediction, etc. • Goal is to leverage, coordinate and synthesize these ongoing activities into a • focused seasonal prediction experiment that incorporates all elements of the • climate system. • First necessary steps in developing seamless weekly-to-decadal prediction

10. Climate system Historical Forecast Project • Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System • Role for each of core WCRP projects • Key: No future information after initialization • Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System • Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-Present • Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut) • Intermediate complexity/Uncoupled experiments not excluded • Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …) • International Multi-Institution Participation • Diagnostic sub-projects being developed • will also include extensive interactions among WCRP project panels

11. Seasonal Prediction PIP: Cracking barriers of ENSO prediction Activities and Achievements • ENSO prediction forecast web site to: • provide probabilistic forecasts • assess skill of different techniques • White paper on ENSO metrics • Hindcast experiments on role of MJO • in onset of El Niño (with AAMP) • Western tropical Pacific workshop • and panel meeting (China, 2007) • SPICE science and implementation • plans and coordination with VOCALS McPhaden et al. 2006) Simple ENSO prediction model: Nino 3.4 SST (DJF) = a WWV(FMA) + b MJO wpac (AMJ) + R

12. Seasonal Prediction US CLIVAR: MJO WG Activities and Achievements • Development of diagnostics for assessing MJO simulation • fidelity and forecast skill in suite of coupled and uncoupled • model simulations • Development and operational implementation of MJO • forecast metric • Develop and coordinate model simulation and prediction • experiments, in conjunction with model-data comparisons • Promote utility of subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the • context of seamless suite of predictions • Workshop (Irvine, CA, Nov 2007)

13. Seasonal Prediction AIP: TAV and TACE Activities and Achievements Progress on TACE (2006-2010): Enhanced observations (http://tace.ifm-geomar.de/index.html ) Biases in climate models and strategies to reduce them (http://www.clivar.org/organization/atlantic/TACE/tace.php) AMMA-Ocean/TACE/PIRATA workshop: Karlsruhe, Germany 11/07

14. AAMP: Role in AMY, IMS • Evaluated DEMETER hindcast experiments to determine • current skill in monsoon prediction • Promoting coordinated A-AM seasonal prediction studies; links • to IOP, PIP, GEWEX/MAHASRI – importance of initial land state • Contributions to WCRP/THORPEX YOTC planning • Work with US CLIVAR MJO WG; development of monsoon metrics for evaluation of simulations Monsoons IOP: Intraseasonal Variability • Continued coordination and development of IndOOS • Identified understanding the heat budget of the upper ocean • at intraseasonal time scales as a critical area of research • Contribute to A-AM predictability experiments Major Activities and Achievements

15. IASCLIP Monsoons VAMOS: Annual Cycle of Convection over Americas Activities and Achievements VOCALS: Multi-Scale Regional Climate Study Planning for field campaign and associated modeling activities well advanced • Organization of Modeling Group for VAMOS (MGV) Strategy integrates across all 4 science programs. Obj: • Integrate NAME-MESA-VOCALS modeling activities • Integrate field programs to improve research models, • data assimilation, analysis and operational forecasting • Develop collaborations between VAMOS research community and operational centers

16. Extremes ETCCDI Activities and Achievements • Expanding the coverage of 27 core indices via regional workshops • Contributes to capacity development in developing nations • Detection work done with indices (influential in AR4 assessment) • Indices also used by modeling groups to study projected changes in • extremes (also entered into AR4 assessment) • Planning of more regional workshops • Indices and software are being distributed (via web)

17. Extremes US CLIVAR: Drought in Coupled Models Project (DRICOMP) Activities and Achievements Aims: Identify and characterize physical and dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the mechanisms through which drought may change as climate changes. Follow-on to CMEP: diagnose simulation of drought in current models. 17 projects funded (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE) • Drought WG: http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html • List of relevant model simulations • List of relevant observational data sets • List of proposed new runs, strategy, modeling groups, contacts, data

18. Discussion World Climate Conference (2009) • CLIVAR to seek major presence • M. Visbeck on organizing committee and • chair of program committee • Theme • Climate Prediction and Information for • Decision Making • Subthemes • Advancing climate prediction and information • service • Climate risk management strategies and • information needs • Climate impacts and adaptive strategies • Mainstreaming climate predictions and information services

19. Discussion 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference • 1st Conference a success • Discussions have begun on desire to hold a 2nd CLIVAR • Science Conference • Venue and time not yet determined (Europe in 3-4 • years?) • Important to engage the (CLIVAR) community in • providing assessments of achievements and • identification of major outstanding questions • “Transition” meeting?

20. Discussion Future Evolution • Urgent need for vision of how WCRP will evolve • Affecting how core projects should focus and evolve • Guiding strategy is “Evolution not Revolution” • Transition requires more coordination across projects/programs • Dialogue between US and International CLIVAR key • Opportunity for US CLIVAR (and agencies) to provide input • Projects should play a major role • Need to keep the community “on board”: identify key science • questions • Preserve what is working: no need to “re-invent” core activities • still needed 5 years from now • Science needs to remain the goal: deliverables are the output • U.S. CLIVAR organizational structure: strawman?

21. Thank you! www.clivar.org