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Rolf Langland NRL-Monterey

Plans for Evaluation of Lidar Wind Observations at NRL-Monterey. Working Group on Space-Based Lidar Winds 05 Feb 2008. Rolf Langland NRL-Monterey. Outline of Talk. T-PARC plans - Falcon and P-3 Data Assimilation Issues Potential Benefit of Space-Based Lidar Wind Observations.

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Rolf Langland NRL-Monterey

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  1. Plans for Evaluation of Lidar Wind Observations at NRL-Monterey Working Group on Space-Based Lidar Winds 05 Feb 2008 Rolf Langland NRL-Monterey

  2. Outline of Talk • T-PARC plans - Falcon and P-3 • Data Assimilation Issues • Potential Benefit of Space-Based Lidar Wind Observations

  3. Falcon plans: T-PARC 2008 airport base: Atsugi, Japan (tbc with US Navy) alternative airports: Okinawa, Misawa, Iwo Jima (?), Korea (?) flight time: 90 h plus 30 h for transfer planned schedule (depending on funding) total: 7-8 weeks incl. transfer/integration takeoff in Germany: 21 Aug 2008 arrival in Japan: 24/25 August 2008 last day in Japan: 4 October (~6 weeks in Japan) arrival in Germany: 7/8 October real-time data: dropsondes near real-time: aircraft in-situ, lidar quicklooks non-realtime: lidar data lidar aircraft manager: Andrea.Hausold@DLR.DE max. range: 1350-1600 NM max altitude: 12.8 km (42 kft)

  4. Falcon plans: T-PARC 2008 wind lidar data: horiz resolution: ~10 km vert. resolution: 100 m number of wind profiles in Japan: 5400 number of profiles on transfer though Siberia: 1800 (the permission for observations in Russia is not certain yet) expected lidar coverage based on the experience from A-TReC 35% for 10-km horizontal resolution 55% for 40-km horizontal resolution Research interests: observation targeting extratropical transition of tropical cyclones and downstream impact value of new observing systems (lidars) tropical moisture export

  5. NRL plans: T-PARC 2008 • Targeting Guidance for TC forecasts – • NOGAPS singular vectors • Adjoint-based observation impact evaluation (after reanalysis with T-PARC lidar observations) • Conventional observation addition and denial forecast experiments (after reanalysis)

  6. NOGAPS Singular Vector Targeting Guidance Observation Target Time Forecast Verification Time Target area for additional observations

  7. Example of NOGAPS-NAVDAS Adjoint-based Observation Impact Effect of observations on 24-hr fcst error norm Reduction Increase

  8. Data Assimilation Issues for Lidar Observations • Procedures for super-obbing or thinning of raw data • Quality control – innovation checks • Specification of observation and representativeness error

  9. Potential Benefits of Space-Based Lidar Observations • Will observations fill gaps in current observing network (esp. 500-800 mb layer?) • Will observations be in forecast error source regions? • More accurate than other wind observations? • How much data will be provided, and how frequently ?

  10. Current GEOSAT Wind Coverage 500 – 700 mb 300 – 500 mb 700 – 800 mb 800 – 900 mb Impact of JMA – MTSAT wind observations

  11. Error Source Regions – Sensitivity to Initial Conditions January 2007 – 0000 and 1200UTC Analyses NOGAPS - NAVDAS

  12. Observations in the North Pacific Region 60N 130W 140E North Pacific Ocean 20N

  13. North Pacificregion observationdata count - NAVDAS 04 Feb 2007 (00,06,12,18UTC) Total = 97,183 obs = 6.7% of global data Ob Data Count

  14. North Pacific Region Observation Variable Count - NAVDAS 04 Feb 2007 (00,06,12,18UTC) Ob Data Count

  15. North Pacific observationimpact sum - NAVDAS Change in 24h moist total energy error norm (J kg-1) 1-31 Jan 2007 (00UTC analyses) Error Reduction

  16. North Pacific forecast error reductionper-observation Change in 24h moist total energy error norm (J kg-1) 1-31 Jan 2007 (00UTC analyses) Error Reduction (x 1.0e5) Ship Obs Targeted dropsondes = high-impact per- ob, low total impact

  17. End of Presentation !

  18. Global observationdensity - NAVDAS 04 Feb 2007 (00,06,12,18UTC) Excluding Aircraft & Satwind Observations All Observations Excluding Aircraft Observations Than over land More satellite data over ocean Number of data in 5deg x 5deg lat-lon areas

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