Public Opinion and the Media

1. Public Opinion and the Media

2. What is public opinion? What is the public agenda, and how is the agenda shaped? How is public opinion measured? What role does the media play in shaping public opinion? What effect does the media have on individual political beliefs and voting behavior? Concepts

3. Public Opinion • How people feel • Measure everything… why commission them? • Not uniform (some groups more than others) • Political issues • General public (day to day) • Does not have to be of interest • Issue public (a cause) • Few politicians seek the approval of the general public as a whole (except president)

4. Characteristics of Public Opinion • People who measure public opinion are not just interested in the direction or the current moment • Try to gauge the characteristics: • Saliency • Intensity • stability

5. Saliency • Is the degree to which it is important to a particular individual or group • For example, social security • Senior citizens? • Young voters?

6. Intensity • How strongly do people feel about a particular issue? • High intensity • Can wield strong political influence even when the group is relatively small • Example, gun control • Most favor some kind of gun control • Intensity is not high, consider other issues • NRA minority position with very high intensity and members do vote based on the issue • Result, NRA is one of the most powerful lobbying groups.

7. Stability • Public opinion on issues changes over time • Some issues like support for democracy or a controlled free-market economy remain stable or constant. • Other change quickly, case: last 2 yrs. of President Bush, Sr. administration • During Gulf War (1991) Bush had recorded the highest public approval ratings of any president since 1945 • Less than 2 yrs. later, majority of Americans showed their disapproval of his performance by voting against him.

8. Measuring Public Opinion • By elections • Indirect measure of public opinion • Yes or no vote • Rarely translates into clear and specific opinions • Referenda • Only for a specific issue • Very infrequent – submit to popular vote by a legislative body (not all states even use this) • Most frequent and direct is public opinion polls

9. Polls Measure Public Opinion • Polls • Designed by asking questions of a much smaller group • Achieve this through random sampling (a representative cross section) • How? • By phone, machine that dials numbers randomly • By exit poll, target voting districts that collectively represent voting public and randomly poll voters who are leaving • When preformed correctly, can measure the opinions of 300 million Americans by polling a mere 1500 of them.

10. Wording of the Questions • “Do you approve or disapprove of the death penalty?” Would yield a different result than, “Would you want the death penalty imposed on someone who killed your parents?” • Most try to phrase them objectively • Many generally ask closed ended multiple choice questions v. open ended questions (explain…) • Closed ended easily quantified

11. Polls cannot be 100 percent accurate • Polling organizations include a sampling error • Tells how far off the poll results may be • Suppose a poll says 60% favor the death penalty with a sampling error of  4 percent • Actual % could be anywhere between 56 and 64 • Generally, the more respondents a poll surveys, the lower the sampling error. • Another cause of error, dishonesty • Some answer polls as they feel they should verses how they really feel • Well known polls Gallup poll and Harris poll

12. Where does public opinion come from? • Views of individuals • Process called political socialization • Family • Location • School • Religious institutions • Mass media (youth?) • Higher education (questions beliefs) • College campuses that are highly politicized and lean in one direction strong impact on students there • Real life experiences • Generalizations.

13. Political Ideologies • Conservative • Liberal • Moderate • An ideology is a coherent set of thoughts and beliefs about politics and government. • Liberal and conservative are the predominant ideologies in the United States

14. Conservative • Stress individuals should be responsible for their own well being and should not rely on government assistance • Tend to oppose government interference in private sector • Oppose most federal regulations • Support free market to determine costs and business practices • Social conservatives • Powerful wing • Do support government action on social issues

15. Liberal • Believe government should remedy the social and economic injustices of the marketplace • Support government regulation of the economy • Support government efforts to redress past social injustices (like affirmative action) • Want strict enforcement of the separation of church and state • Against school prayer • Against bans on abortions (perceive as motivated by religious beliefs)

16. Moderate • Makes up the largest portion of the American public • In 1993, nearly half of all Americans identified themselves as politically moderate • Moderates do not constitute a coherent ideology • View themselves as pragmatists who apply common sense rather than philosophical principles to political problems.

17. Political Ideologies • Compared to other western nations, we have fewer main ideological groups • Americans readily vote outside of their self-professed political beliefs • In 1996, 30% of Americans identified as conservative voted for Bill Clinton over Bob Dole • If you have strong ideological beliefs, you tend to be the most politically active • Balancing act, to reach the top of your party you must appeal to the more ideological party faithful BUT to win the elections you must move back to the center to win over the general public

18. Factors in Ideological and Political Behavior There is no one-to-one correlation between people’s backgrounds and their political beliefs BUT people who share common traits TEND to share political beliefs.

19. Determining Factors • Race/ethnicity • Religion • Gender • Income level • Region

20. Public Opinion and the Mass Media

21. The News Media • Plays an important role in the development of public opinion • Includes the following: • News broadcasts on tv and radio • Newspapers • News magazines, like Time and Newsweek • Newsmaker interview programs like Meet the Press or Larry King Live • Magazine broadcasts like 60 minutes and 20/20 • Political talk radio like Rush Limbaugh • Websites, blogs, and online forums (we can look at few…Huffington, Politico, etc…)

22. The News Media • Provides Americans with most extensive exposure to politicians and the government • In some ways, like an intermediary between the people and the government • Questioning motives • Questioning purposes • Then reporting • As the literacy rate in our country grew so did the impact of the news media

23. The News Media • Most important role is setting the public agenda • Decide which news to cover • Decides relative importance of political issues • Dynamic, as interest in a story grows so does its importance • Less clear how it can influence public opinion • Generally accepted that it does only when coverage is extensive and it is predominantly positive or negative • Example, studies show public approval of the president is volatile and changes depending on the type of coverage • Most Americans choose media that reinforce their political beliefs.

24. Is the News Media Biased? • Lots of critics • Objectivity? • Time and space constraints? Decide what facts to omit. • Their sources of information can pass on bias • Most modern politicians understand the power of the media and attempt to influence coverage • Stage events • Press releases • More frequent and more sophisticated in recent years.