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Europe yes or no? Déjà vu (again)

Europe yes or no? Déjà vu (again). Michael Marsh. Introduction. What do we know about referendum voting? It’s the government, stupid It’s party loyaties It’s the issues, (but what issues?) What do people now about the referendum anyway? When it doubt use proxies. How can we know?

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Europe yes or no? Déjà vu (again)

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  1. Europe yes or no?Déjà vu (again) Michael Marsh

  2. Introduction • What do we know about referendum voting? • It’s the government, stupid • It’s party loyaties • It’s the issues, (but what issues?) • What do people now about the referendum anyway? When it doubt use proxies. • How can we know? • Cross sections, post ref surveys: problems of recall on key variables, problems of rationalisation, problems of establishing causal sequences • Panels, better equipped to deal with sequences of change, although concerns over effects of being studied • Rolling cross sections, some panel advantages without some of the disadvantages • Data here: cross section surveys, but done immediately after each referendum; questions about issues and perceptions of treaty and analyse links to vote

  3. What changed 2008 to 2009 • Opinions on underlying issues, on trust, on EU, on consequences?? • To some degree more favourable - on neutrality, trust in party and perceptions of consequences - but not entirely so, notably the unpopularity of the government; more information too • The importance of such things for the voter’s decision? • Helpful changes re EU + and govt, weaker links to views on neutrality, stronger link to economic future • New circumstances? • Was 2009 a more rational, better informed decision?

  4. Who changed their mind?

  5. 2008 voters in 2009 2008 behaviour measured by recall; 2009 surveys pre- and post Lisbon2 vote

  6. Stable /Unstable No 08-09 by age

  7. Stable /Unstable NO by Gender

  8. Stable /Unstable NO by Occupation

  9. Stable /Unstable NO by Party

  10. Support for Integration and Change As regards the European Union in general, which of the following comes closest to your view:  “Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union” OR  “Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union”

  11. Changing perceptions of the Treaty

  12. Lisbon will erode Neutrality

  13. Lisbon will hasten abortion

  14. Lisbon will change business tax

  15. Lisbon will reduce our influence in EU

  16. Lisbon will strengthen the protection of workers' rights

  17. Lisbon will increase unemployment

  18. Lose Commissioner/Keep Commissioner

  19. Lisbon will simplify decision making

  20. Fewer “bad” consequences

  21. The Protest Vote 2008 2009 Rating the government’s performance

  22. Lack of trust in party Trust own party to do/say right thing on economy, health, EU and social issues

  23. Parties and the NO vote

  24. Europe and the the Vote2009 and 2008 As regards the European Union in general, which of the following comes closest to your view:  “Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union” OR  “Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union”

  25. Identity and Vote2008 2009

  26. Opinion on neutrality and vote Ireland should accept limitations on its neutrality so that it can be more fully involved in EU co-operation on foreign and defence policy

  27. Subjective understanding

  28. Knowledge Oct 2009

  29. Knowledge of EU and NO vote 2008 data taken from Millward Brown survey

  30. Knowledge of EU and NO vote Knowledge from 2009 survey; vote in 2008 is recalled

  31. Effect of knowledge on 2008 NO vote

  32. Opinion change June2008-Oct2009

  33. Economic benefits of Ratification2009 2008

  34. Significant influences on vote X means p < 0.10

  35. Conclusions • People THOUGHT they knew more, and arguably had less misleading views on Treaty • Opinions on some underlying issues, on trust, on EU, on consequences broadly more favourable • Some changes too in importance of POSITIVE things for the voter’s decision and decline of negative ones – protest vote – in importance • New circumstances with respect to economy, and guarantees[?]

  36. Some outstanding questions… • When did people change their mind – somewhere between June and November • How widespread was knowledge of guarantees, or does this not matter • Were more positive perceptions cause of consequence of Yes vote • Did the fact that Yes outspent the No side matter in altering perceptions • Did the greater involvement by civil society help weaken protest vote

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