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Hailstorm at 19 August over Berlin and Issues of Verification of Deep Convection

Hailstorm at 19 August over Berlin and Issues of Verification of Deep Convection. Matthias Jaeneke, DWD. Outline. Introduction Why Case-Studies in Verification ? The Berlin Hailstorm and Forecast-Verification Local Data, Synoptics, Short-Range Development

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Hailstorm at 19 August over Berlin and Issues of Verification of Deep Convection

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  1. Hailstorm at 19 August over Berlinand Issues of Verification of Deep Convection Matthias Jaeneke, DWD

  2. Outline • Introduction • Why Case-Studies in Verification ? • The Berlin Hailstorm and Forecast-Verification • Local Data, Synoptics, Short-Range Development • Time-Series of Model Weather Verification • What does the Berlin Hailstorm Case teach us for Deep Convection Case Verification ?

  3. Introduction • Why Case-Studies in Verification ? • Case-studies provide insight into strengths and weaknesses of forecasts of the single weather situation • Case-studies are able to stratify verification into typical classes of weather cases, for instance high impact situations • Case-studies are more adapted to problems and needs of the operational forecaster and are able to show up the real range of day to day variability of forecast quality • Case-studies are therefore integral part of all verification and represent all qualitative aspects of forecasts

  4. Direction of Wind Maximum Gusts Visibility MSLP Temperature 2m Temperature 5cm Precipitation (1 min.)

  5. Total Precipitation Amount (mm) during the Hailstorm

  6. B Geopot. 500 T850

  7. B Geopot.500 KO-INDEX : Generalized vertical gradient of ThetaE

  8. B Geopot. 500 IR-SAT

  9. Surface Map 19-08-2000 12 UTC Meteor.Institut Free University Berlin

  10. B NOAA-IR-DIAG T2m

  11. B NOAA-IR-DIAG T2m

  12. B NOAA-IR-DIAG T2m

  13. B NOAA-IR-DIAG T2m

  14. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  15. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  16. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  17. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  18. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  19. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  20. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  21. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  22. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  23. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  24. B B B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  25. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  26. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  27. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  28. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  29. B Radar-Reflectivity Warning-Markers

  30. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  31. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  32. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  33. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  34. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  35. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  36. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  37. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  38. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  39. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  40. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  41. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  42. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  43. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  44. B LM: Grid-Weather 1h Lightnings

  45. B LM: Grid-Weather Weather-Observations

  46. B LM: Grid-Weather Weather-Observations

  47. B LM: Grid-Weather Weather-Observations

  48. B LM: Grid-Weather Weather-Observations

  49. B LM: Grid-Weather Weather-Observations

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