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Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006

RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCE Inventory, Impacts, and Regulation presentation by Robert M. Lewis, AICP, Principal D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES. Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006. THREE PRIMARY ASSIGNMENTS. Database of the physical inventory of retailing.

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Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006

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  1. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCEInventory, Impacts, and Regulationpresentation byRobert M. Lewis, AICP, PrincipalDEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006

  2. THREE PRIMARY ASSIGNMENTS • Database of the physical inventory of retailing. • Contract with city • Potential impact of three proposed retail centers. • Northgate • Bauer Farm • Mercato Added contract with city • Development code recommendations. • Subcontract with Stinson Morrison Hecker Same contract with city DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  3. INVENTORY: Methodology • Define retail geographic concentrations (city & DSI). • Field survey (primarily by city staff) • Compilation, verification, aggregation (DSI) • Peer city comparisons (DSI) • Summary report (DSI) • Informative intent; non-judgmental DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  4. INVENTORY: Retail Concentrations • Focus on “typical” retail locations. • Shopping Centers • First Floors – Second if occupied • Record of occupancy regardless of use or zoning. • Record of occupancy if retail land use or zoning. • 10 geographic areas plus miscellaneous. • West 6th Street • Hillcrest Shopping Center • Orchard Corners • Clinton Parkway • East 23rd St. • West 6th & Monterey Way • West 6th & Wakarusa • South Iowa Street • West 23rd Street • Downtown DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  5. INVENTORY: Field Survey • DSI designed a field recording form. • DSI tested the field work. • DSI trained city staff. • Staff completed field work. • Staff created database spreadsheet and sent to DSI. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  6. INVENTORY: Field Survey Form DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  7. INVENTORY: Compilation, Verification, Aggregation • Checked against previous Lawrence database. • Checked against telephone book and Internet. • Checked against Chamber of Commerce data. • Checked against Grubb & Ellis local data. • Selected telephone calls to retailers. • Determined NAICS of each entry (retail or not). • Aggregated by geography & NAICS. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  8. INVENTORY: NAICS Codes DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  9. SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by NAICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  10. SUMMARY DATA: Establishments by NAICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  11. SUMMARY DATA: Average Sq. Ft. by NAICS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  12. SUMMARY DATA: Dining Establishments DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  13. SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by Geography DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  14. SUMMARY DATA: Percent of Sq. Ft. by Geography DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  15. Distribution of Space: City of Lawrence DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  16. Distribution of Space: West 6th & Monterey Way DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  17. Distribution of Space: West 6th & Wakarusa DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  18. Distribution of Space: South Iowa Street DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  19. Distribution of Space: West 23rd Street DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  20. Distribution of Space: Downtown DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  21. Distribution of Space: West 6th Street DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  22. Distribution of Space: Hillcrest Shopping Center DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  23. Distribution of Space: Orchard Corners DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  24. Distribution of Space: Clinton Parkway DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  25. Distribution of Space: East 23rd Street DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  26. Distribution of Space: Miscellaneous Locations DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  27. PEER CITIES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  28. PEER CITIES: Population, 2004 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  29. PEER CITIES: Retail Sales to EBI DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  30. PEER CITIES: Retail Sales Pull Factors DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  31. POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  32. POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Northgate: 269,300 square feet • If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 7.7%. • If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%. • Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population). • To absorb 269,300 square feet requires 3,430 more residents. • Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  33. POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Bauer Farm: 118,800 square feet • If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 5.6%. • If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%. • Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population). • To absorb 118,800 square feet requires 1,515 more residents. • Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  34. POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:Mercato: 600,000 square feet • If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 11.9%. • If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.5%. • Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population). • To absorb 600,000 square feet requires 7,650 more residents. • Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  35. POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL:All Three: 988,100 square feet • If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 16.3%. • If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.3%. • Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population). • To absorb 988,100 square feet requires 12,600 more residents. • Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

  36. PEER CITY COMPARISONS • Selected cities similar to Lawrence. • Midwest or Great Plains • Cities that dominate their counties • Stand alone counties (little surrounding development) • Major university or similar institution • Used Survey of Buying Power for consistent measures. • Key purpose: Identify “gaps” in supply or demand. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

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