1 / 71

Antony Mueller UFS

Antony Mueller UFS. De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura na Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos. Para receber o data show. Website: www.continentaleconomics.com Blog internacional: www.continentaleconomics.com/blog Blog em Português: www.economianova.blogspot.com e-mail:

emerson-heath
Download Presentation

Antony Mueller UFS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Antony MuellerUFS De Bush à Obama. Continuidade e Ruptura na Política Econômica dos Estados Unidos

  2. Para receber o data show • Website: • www.continentaleconomics.com • Blog internacional: • www.continentaleconomics.com/blog • Blog em Português: • www.economianova.blogspot.com • e-mail: • antonymueller@yahoo.com

  3. A herança • Duas guerras • US “soft power” (poder suave) enfraquecido • Crise financeira • Crise econômica • Crise social • Dívida externo • Dívida pública • Dívida pessoal • Setor financeiro em bancarrota • Setor industrial em fraqueza

  4. A promessa: “Change we can believe in”

  5. Obama: “Ajuda está no caminho” "Help is on the way," Obama proclaimed at his third news briefing on the economy this week. Fifty-five days away from taking office, he declared he would have an economic plan ready for action "starting day one.“

  6. A situação

  7. Fim de uma economia ilusória • “For the past several years people thought we had a real economy and we didn’t. We had a bubble. All we did is borrow a trillion dollars from the rest of the world and now we can’t pay the bills.” • Peter Schiff, fund manager and financial analyst

  8. As tarefas (missão impossível) • Quebrar a formação de um circulo vicioso entre desemprego e desvalorização dos ativos (imóveis e ações) • Parar a aprofundamento da crise financeira (com pulverização da poupança de aposentaria) • Controlar a explosão da dívida pública • Resistir as tentações do populismo (promessas da campanha)

  9. O “plano Obama” • “…we risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further,” … • work out details of an “economic recovery plan” that will be “big enough to meet the challenges we face that I intend to sign soon after taking office” on Jan. 20. • “It will be a two-year, nationwide effort to jumpstart job creation in America and lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy,”… • “We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing schools that are failing our children, and building wind farms and solar panels; fuel-efficient cars and the alternative energy technologies that can free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead.”… • The initiatives will address “this immediate crisis” and represent “long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long,” • O plano econômico de Obama, Novembro 2008

  10. Obama’s plano econômico criar 2.5 million empregos investir na infraestrutura construir estradas e pontes modernizar as escolas desenvolver sources de energia alternativa e carros mais eficientes "These aren't just steps to pull ourselves out of this immediate crisis. These are the long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long," Obama said in the weekly Democratic radio address.

  11. A realidade • Limitações da atuação da política econômica • Desemprego e dívida

  12. Taxa de desemprego

  13. Déficit orçamental

  14. Gastos do governo

  15. Dívida pública

  16. Poupança pessoal

  17. Balanço de Conta Corrente

  18. Dependência financeira

  19. Dívida federal em mão de investidores internacionais e externos

  20. A posição dos Estados Unidos no mundo de hoje e de amanha • Declínio do poder Americano ou • a nação indispensável? • A economia mundial pode sobreviver sem o consumidor Americano? • A importância relativa da economia Americana • O papel dos novos players

  21. Top 5 em PIB • GDP at purchasing power parity 2007 in USD trillion • World 65.6 (PIB do mundo) • European Union 14.4 (União Européia) • United States 13.8 (Estados Unidos) • China 7.1 • Japan 4.3 • India 3.0 • Memo: • Brazil 1.8 Rank 11

  22. FMI Quotas Setembro 2008 • Estados Unidos: 17.09 % • Cinco maiores economias da UE: 21.50 % • União Européia: mais de 30 % • Japão: 6.13 % • China: 3.72 % • Argentina: 0.97 % • Brasil: 1.40 % • Chile: 0.39 %

  23. Gastos militares • Military expenditures (USD bilhões) • WorldTotal (Gastos total no mundo) • 1,470 • United States • 711 • People's Republic of China • 61 • Brazil • 24

  24. Dimensões do Poder:Gastos militares

  25. Gastos no orçamento de defesa

  26. Continuidade do complexo militar-industrial? • “The signs are amassing that Barack Obama put a political con job over on the American people. He is now daily buying into the entrenched military-industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned Americans about in his farewell address.” • Ralph Nader

  27. Farewell speech of Eisenhower • Links: • Text: http://coursesa.matrix.msu.edu/~hst306/documents/indust.html • Speech: • http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/dwightdeisenhowerfarewell.html • Military-Industrial Complex

  28. Obama’s “dream team” Clinton Gates Geithner Summers • Golsbee Volcker

  29. A continuidade da política econômica • Gastos • Impostos • Bailouts • Dívida • Regulamentações • Intervenções • Moeda fácil

  30. A Continuidade da Política EconômicaBush “ajuda ao povo” • 2001: Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act • 2002: Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act • 2003: Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act • 2008: Economic Stimulus Act

  31. O mito do “desregulamento” • In the second presidential debate, Barrack Obama declared that “the biggest problem in this whole process was the deregulation of the financial system.” • Yet fact is: no financial deregulation under Bush.  • 2000-2008 no new deregulation but re-regulation: • Stricter capital norms (Basle II) • Mark-to-market rule

  32. “Bailouts” dos mercados financeiros • 2000 Nasdaq collapse (dot.com bubble) • 2001 US recession • 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks • 2003 Gulf War II • 2003-04 Deflation scare • 2005 Housing froth • 2006-07 Subprime market crisis • 2007 Financial market “freeze” • 2008 Stock market crash • 2008 Year of the mega bailouts

  33. $ 4.62 trillion bailout money • Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion • Source: Barry Ritholz and Bianco Research

  34. O que é atrais da crise? • Resposta: O aumento da massa monetária produzida por o Banco Central Americano provocou o aumenta da dívida e causou o declínio da poupança. A conseqüência era taxa de juros hipotecarias baixa sem precedente e uma corrida por o endividamento sem precedente. A crise de hoje não é nada de mística. Era o – como os Americanos dizem -- “O acidente esperando para acontecer”, an accident waiting to happen.

  35. Criação de moeda (zero maturidade)

  36. Taxa de juros (FFR)

  37. Taxa de juros hipotecária

  38. Taxa de inflação – oficial e do Shadow Government Statistics John Williams

  39. Um prognóstico condicional Tendências estabelecidas: Aumento do desemprego Aumento do déficit orçamental Aumento da dívida externa Aprofundamento da recessão • Perguntas abertas: • Financiamento externo? • Inflação ou deflação? • Impactos para o resto do mundo? • Conseqüências para o Brasil?

  40. National Intelligence Council Nov. 2008 • The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game. • Dollar will lose its role as the leading reserve currency • The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future. • Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply. • The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East. http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

  41. O declínio do papel do US dólar • “… Despite recent inflows into dollar assets and the appreciation of the dollar, the dollar could lose its status as an unparalleled global reserve currency by 2025, and become a first among equals in a market basket of currencies. This may force the US to consider more carefully how the conduct of its foreign policyaffects the dollar. Without a steady source of external demand for dollars, US foreign policy actions might bring exposure to currency shock and higher interest rates for Americans. • Growing use of the euro is already evident, potentially making it harder for the US in the future to exploit the unique role of the dollar in international trade and investment to freeze assets and disrupt the financial flows of its adversaries…” Source: Report by the US National Intelligence Council 2008

  42. As previsões de Gerald Celente do Trends Research InstituteOs Estados Unidos vai se tornar numa nação "undeveloped" ("dedesenvolvida")com- tax revolt (rebelião contra imposts)- job marches (demonstrações trabalhistas- food riots (rebelião para comida)- squatter revolt (rebelião de pessoas sem moradia)Até hoje os Estados Unidos ainda não estão preparado para este choque e continuam estar em um estado de negação, incluindo negar que já estamos numa forte recessão.

  43. As previsões do antigo chairman de Goldman Sachs, John Whitehead: • America's problems will take years and will burn trillions • "nothing but large increases in the deficit” • "the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs, all very costly and all done by the government." • - 'I've always been a positive person and optimistic, but I don't see a solution here.”

  44. 2009 • It is only the beginning. The 2009 year will be one of titanic shocks and changes to the global order of a scale perhaps not experienced in the past five centuries. This is why we should speak of the end of the American Century and its Dollar System. • How destructive that process will be to the citizens of the United States who are the prime victims of Paulson’s crony capitalists, as well as to the rest of the world depends now on the urgency and resoluteness with which heads of national Governments in Germany, the EU, China, Russia and the rest of the non-US world react. • William F. Engdahl (Engdahl Strategic Consulting)

  45. Risco global • O grande risco para a economia mundial é se Obama vai cair vítima das tentações do protecionismo com a taxa de desemprego aumentando no anos que vem. • Nos anos trinta, no começo da Grande Depressão, o erro fundamental da política econômica era lutar contra o desemprego com um forte aumento das tarifas. A conseqüência era de causar mais danos que benefícios para os Americanos próprios e tirar o resto do mundo no buraco da depressão.

  46. Os Estados Unidos perto do calote? • Balanço banco central (ativos tóxicos) • Resgates financeiros ($3.2 até $8.5 tri) • Aumento do hiato entre receita e gastos no orçamento (déficit previsto para ano fiscal 2008/9 de $1000 bilhões) • Recessão • Desemprego aumentando • Financiamento interno e externo em dúvida (taxa de juros quase no mínimo)

  47. Conclusão • Obama está confrontado com desafios enormes em quase todas as áreas da atuação política: • Duas guerras • Economia fraca • Finanças governamentais em situação catastrófica • Recessão com o surgimento de um complexo de círculo vicioso

More Related