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The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap

The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap. We have to act NOW for a sustainable future! Conclusions and recommendations from the HyWays project. Main message. Hydrogen has the potential to reduce total CO 2 emissions from road transport in a cost effective way by over 50% in 2050…

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The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap

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  1. The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap We have to act NOW fora sustainable future!Conclusions and recommendations from the HyWays project

  2. Main message Hydrogen has the potential to reduce total CO2 emissions from road transport in a cost effective way by over 50% in 2050… …if we start to act now!

  3. Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction

  4. 1000 Base line (-30% CO2) 900 800 Modest policy support, modest learning 700 Mtons/a High policy support, 600 high learning 500 Very high support, high learning 400 300 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emission reduction potential Annual CO2 emissions from European road transport Hydrogen scenarios: • Over 50% reduction of emissions from road transport by 2050.

  5. 120 Baseline 100 80 Modest support, modest learning MAC (€/ton CO2) 60 High support, high learning 40 Very high support, high learning 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Cost effective emission reduction Marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO2 emission reduction (Europe) Hydrogen scenarios: • Costs of CO2 emission reduction decrease by 4% in 2030 and 15% by 2050.

  6. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% UK PL ES FI NO NL IT GR Countries DE FR Pollutant emissions NOx emissions* compared to baseline • Short-to-medium term improvementof air quality. • 70% reduction by 2050. • Even higher reductions possibleat local level (cities). 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 * High support, high learning scenario

  7. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment

  8. Impact on economic growth The transition to hydrogen offers economic opportunities: • Strengthening Europe’s position as manufacturerof cars and energy equipment. • Decreasing vulnerability to oil price shocks and structural high oil prices. • Small positive GDP effects in most countries from 2030 onwards.

  9. 2 3 1 3 Worst case scenario (negative values) Impact on employment Employment 2030 • 25% of all vehicles are produced in Europe. (10% of total GDP in EU27) • Dilemma for large automotive countries: • Drastic GDP and job losses if these countries lose market shares due to a late market entry. • Uncertainties about success of H2 cars and risk of losses due to investments in premature H2 infrastructure and car development. • Less drastic for other countries; by following the "right strategies“, additional wins in GDP and employment can be obtained.

  10. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply 

  11. 4000 Nuclear Solar HT Natural gas Biomass 3000 Coal Wind PJ / a By-product Grid 2000 1000 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 Security of supply Hydrogen production mix (Scenario: Visions of the national stakeholders) • Hydrogen de-couples energy demand from resources (like electricity). • Diversified hydrogen production mix leads to substantial improvement in security of supply. • Total oil consumption of road transport decreases by 40% until 2050 (80% hydrogen vehicles).

  12. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving  

  13. 4000 Solar HT Nuclear Biomass Coal + 3000 natural gas PJ / a Wind By-product 2000 1000 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 Hydrogen & renewable energy Hydrogen production mix (Scenario: 80% emission reduction, failure of CCS technology) • Opportunity to increase the share of renewable energy (beyond biomass) in transport. • Link between fuel and power by electrolysis augments take-up of renewables into the grid.

  14. Hydrogen & energy efficiency Efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles is significantly higher than of internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid ICE vehicles. • End use efficiency is increased by hydrogen and fuel cell technology. • E.g., hydrogen from biomass (used in fuel cell vehicles) allows for substantial efficiency gains over biofuels.

  15. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving    But what do we need now? Immediate action!

  16. 80000 Total Cash Flow 60000 Fuel+Fleet cash flow Scenario “Modest policy support, modest learning”, WETO oil price "Business as usual costs SAVINGS  40000 MINUS H2 scenario costs" CUMULATIVE Cash flow (M€)   20000 Scenario “High policy support, fast learning”, +1000 €/vehicle acceptable, WETO oil price +20$/bbl 0 -20000 ADD. COSTS  -40000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 -60000 -80000 We have to act now for a sustainable future! Cash flow over time : • High introduction rates of vehicles and build-up rate of infrastructure are needed for an industrially relevant growth. • A slow market penetration of hydrogen is unacceptable from an investor’s point of view. • Immediate action is needed to overcome the initial barriers.

  17. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving    But what do we need now? Immediate action! A hydrogen-specific support scheme

  18. A European hydrogen-specific support framework is needed. • Innovation support: Increase R&D budgets at EU and member state level for hydrogen technologies. • Suggested European level: 80 M€/year. • Market support: Implement a hydrogen specific deployment support framework at member state level. • Starting point: equalise costs (€ct/km) for road transport (e.g. through tax incentives). • Total costs of deployment support scheme: ~180 M€/year. • Early markets: Create markets utilising the advantages of hydrogen applications. • E.g. city centre access regulations or procurement of zero emission vehicles within governmental services.

  19. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving    But what do we need now? Immediate action! A hydrogen-specific support scheme A public private partnership

  20. A public-private partnership (PPP) is needed. • Production of a small series of vehicles has started but has to be scaled up further soon. • In the early commercialisation phase, technology-specific deployment support and R&D must go hand-in-hand. • A European public private partnership between industry and the EC, such as a Joint Technology Initiative (JTI), is the most suitable framework to meet these conditions.

  21. Why do we need hydrogen?  Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving    But what do we need now? Immediate action! A hydrogen-specific support scheme A public private partnership

  22. Acknowledgement HyWays is an integrated project, co-funded by research institutes, industry, national agencies and by the European Commission (EC) under the 6th Framework Programme [contract No 502596].

  23. The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Want to know more?An executive summary and the full version of the HyWaysRoad Map and Action Plan are available for download at www.HyWays.de

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