Severe Weather Survey Analysis 2011-2012

1. Severe Weather Survey Analysis 2011-2012 Dr. Laura Myers Ms. Ashley Loftin Mississippi State University Social Science Research Center

2. Severe Weather Survey • The severe weather survey was developed to assess perceptions of severe weather events and the warning process primarily in Mississippi and the surrounding regions. • This analysis was conducted as part of the regional emergency management project, funded by SERRI and the Department of Homeland Security.

3. Severe Weather Survey • The results of this analysis are for use by regional emergency planning stakeholders, including… • The National Weather Service • Emergency managers • Weather professionals • The private sector • First responder agencies • Volunteer organizations

4. Severe Weather Survey • The survey was disseminated electronically and via hard copy to residents in these areas through local emergency managers, the media, and the weather enterprise.

5. Severe Weather Survey • The survey was initiated in mid-November 2011 and closed in mid-January 2012. • The final number of respondents with complete surveys was 1,810.

6. The Study Population • The majority of respondents to the survey are from Mississippi (43%-995 respondents.) • Over 20% of respondents are from Alabama (525 respondents) and 13% are from Tennessee (290 respondents).

7. Demographics of Study Population • Both males (58%) and females (42%) responded to the survey in Mississippi. • Males were much more likely than females to respond in Alabama (73%) and Tennessee (72%).

8. Age Distribution • The age distribution of respondents was normal in all three states.

9. The Weather Aware Respondents • As is typical with weather perception research, most respondents were more likely to.. • be Caucasian • have at least some college education • and earn moderate to high incomes. • It is the weather aware populations that are more willing to share their perceptions on weather.

10. Experience with Damaging Weather • Over 90 percent of the respondents in each of the three states had experienced some level of damage from severe weather. • Over 40% in each state had experienced either minor or major tornado damage.

11. Structural Protection • About 75% of the respondents in each state live in a wood frame home. • The rest of the respondents live in manufactured homes, apartments, or hotels.

12. What is a tornado watch? • Almost all respondents correctly identified a tornado watch correctly.

13. Receiving Weather Warnings • Mississippi respondents are more likely to use television as their primary method of receiving weather warnings, while Alabama is more likely to use NOAA weather radio. • Tennessee respondents are equally likely to use both.

14. Receiving Weather Warnings • There appears to be little reliance on cell phones or sirens as a primary method to receive warnings. • The most effective method for respondents is the NOAA weather radio.

15. First Response to a Tornado Warning • MS respondents are more likely to take immediate cover than respondents in AL and TN. • AL and TN respondents are more likely to seek a second source of information or wait to hear from a local source • They are putting themselves at more risk because they are cutting down their protective action time.

16. Seriousness of Tornado Warnings After the Extreme 2010-2011 Season • MS respondents were more likely to take warnings more seriously after the 2010-2011 extreme weather, followed by AL respondents. • About 40% of TN respondents did not take warnings any more seriously than before. • MS and AL residents were more likely to have experienced severe weather during the 2010-2011 season.

17. Serious Weather Warning Terminology • Enhancing the seriousness of warning terminology appears to make a difference for respondents. • Such serious terminology cause over 50% to prepare and monitor more.

18. Where do you shelter? • Nearly three quarters of the respondents choose an interior room for their shelter. • While a personal storm shelter is the better choice, only about 10% of respondents choose that option. • This is likely due to cost and also perceived risk.

19. Weather Alert Messages • Message content options were provided to determine which content options led to seeking shelter immediately. • Content most likely to result in seeking immediate shelter : • National Weather Service meteorologists are tracking a confirmed tornado near your location. • Trained weather spotters report a tornado near your location.

20. Weather Alert Message with Wind Speed • The increase from 60 mph to 80 mph wind speed seems to make the difference in when people start to seek shelter immediately. • There appears to be no real difference in the use of the term “tornado” versus “strong tornado.” • Both terms result in people seeking shelter immediately.

21. False Alarms • Change in behavior from false alarms from tornado warnings appears minimal. • Over two thirds will not change their behaviors after false alarms. • About 20% are less likely to seek shelter after false alarms. • It is of concern that almost a quarter of respondents would be less likely to seek shelter.

22. Conditions that protect you from tornadoes? • Respondents generally do not believe in the myths associated with conditions that protect from tornadoes. • Most respondents indicated that any place can be hit by tornadoes.

23. Number of Warnings Per Year • Actually a small number of warnings per location each year. • Percentages within each state show a wide variation in perceived number of warnings. • Reason for wide variation is probably due to hearing warnings for surrounding locations and recalling those as applying to the person’s locale.

24. Rely on Sirens? • Less than half of the respondents rely on sirens. • The primary problems are that people cannot hear them and they are not location specific. • Because sirens are for outdoor use, people may not be aware that sirens are not meant for indoor use.

25. Length of Weather Warnings • About two-thirds perceive weather warnings to be just the right length. • Just over 20% perceive them to be too long. • Only about 10% perceive them to be too brief. • Any efforts to decrease length should be taken with caution and monitored closely.

26. How to Warn and When to Warn • NOAA weather radio and television are primary methods to receive weather warnings for most people in the study. • Other methods suggested by respondents include more and better use of cell phone technology, especially text messaging.

27. How to Warn and When to Warn • Respondents note the need for greater specificity in the warnings. • They want proximity to location in the warning. • Many respondents felt the current methods used are useful and work very well.

28. How to Warn and When to Warn • Social media was also suggested, using Facebook and Twitter to convey warnings. • Social media would be an avenue to pursue as nearly three-quarters of respondents use social media.

29. How to Warn and When to Warn • For siren use, suggestions were made to use different tones to mean different things. • Some respondents suggest not telling them to shelter, just give location of tornado and the path.

30. How to Warn and When to Warn • It is suggested that at least 30 minutes of lead-time be given when possible. • Several days of lead-time are useful when that information is available. • Digital signs on the Interstate were suggested for those traveling the highways.

31. How to Warn and When to Warn • The polygon system is perceived as being confusing and useless. • False alarms should be eliminated if possible. • Alerting by phone at night would overcome the sleep issue. • Graphic warning maps are especially helpful.

32. How to Warn and When to Warn • The public seems to want to know as soon as possible, not just when the tornadoes are confirmed. • In regard to path, they want to know when it is at least 2 counties away. • Some refer to the window effect, a time frame in which people should be aware.

33. Conclusion • Multiple sources of weather warnings. • Lack of understanding by some of tools and warnings. • Polygon • Siren • Content of warning message critical. • Timing of message important. • Proximity and path important.

34. Conclusion • False alarm issue needs to be addressed with caution. • Warnings at night should be addressed • Use of social media. • Many tools and methods are effective. • Lead time

35. Conclusion • Use of the analysis by the emergency planning network. • Warnings • Education of the public • Education of specific populations • Vulnerable populations • Transient/tourist populations • The private sector • Knowledge about what people do with weather warnings.

36. Dr. Laura Myers, Research Professor Phone: (828) 243-2952 Email: Laura.myers@ssrc.msstate.edu Mail: PO Box 5287, MS State, MS 39762 Ms. Ashley Loftin, Field Coordinator Phone: (662) 436-0323 Email: Ashley.loftin@ssrc.msstate.edu Contact Information