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Dependent variable: Vote

Dependent variable: Vote. Share of two-party vote Share of popular vote Share of Electoral college 1-0 variable for Win-lose Coolidge adjustment. Data run . Most recent back to… Smith Fair – two versions 1948 Full Employment Act. Growth rate. Three quarters prior Per capita Real GDP.

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Dependent variable: Vote

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  1. Dependent variable: Vote Share of two-party vote Share of popular vote Share of Electoral college 1-0 variable for Win-lose Coolidge adjustment

  2. Data run • Most recent back to… • Smith • Fair – two versions • 1948 Full Employment Act

  3. Growth rate • Three quarters prior • Per capita • Real GDP

  4. Inflation • Average rate over 15 Q • % change in GDP deflator • Inflation-deflation symmetric • War adjustment

  5. Good news • # of Qs in previous 15 with g > 3.2 • War adjustment

  6. Duration • 1 term = 0 • 2 terms = 1 • 3 terms = 1.25 • 4 terms = 1.50 • 5 terms = 1.75

  7. Person • 1 if sitting president running • Includes VP becoming President • Ford exception

  8. Party • 1 = Democrat • -1 = Republican

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