Steven C. McCutcheon, Ph.D. U.S. EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory Athens, Georgia,

1. Steven C. McCutcheon, Ph.D. U.S. EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory Athens, Georgia, CREM Regional Modeling Seminar Series November 17, 2003 Collaborative ORD Temperature Modeling and Development to Support Environmental Protection in Regions 7, 8, 9, and 10

2. Overview • History of Stream Temperature Modeling • Model Selection and Development • Model Development for the 1st Temperature TMDL • Using Temperature Modeling to Provide a Sound Science Basis for Applying State Temperature Standards 2

3. Model Uncertainty Many Less Reliable Climate/hydrology +/-10 oC? Statistical (Velz) +/-5 oC Heat balance measured +/-4 oC Uncertainty Watershed (Chen) +/-3 oC Data requirements Qual2 (Roesner) +/-1 oC Reliable Few Simple Complex Model complexity or no. of calibration parameters 3

4. Model Selection • In general, lacking peer review and independent evaluation of models • Model selection is still an indefinite art 4

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13. Reasons for Development of SHADE and HSPF • Need defined by the May 1993 President’s Forest Summit • UGA Ph.D. dissertation planning involved OR DEQ, Indian Tribes, other federal and local agencies, and NGOs and private citizens • Vital OW development support 13

14. Unusual Research Planning • Followed up finding of the Summit—need tools and science basis to weigh impacts of forestry practices on environment • OW and Region 10 located data rich watershed with known problems that had to solved—upper Grande Ronde watershed 14

15. More on Research Planning • Series of meetings in Portland to define short-term and long term temperature modeling needs • OR DEQ—stream segment modeling • NERL/UGA—first precision watershed model of temperature • OW—GIS and other methods to define riparian buffers 15

16. HSPF Revised + SHADE 16

17. Upper Grande Ronde 17

18. Stream Flow Simulations 18

19. Flow Exceedance 19

20. Stream Temperature Simulations 20

21. Findings • Simulate T to + 3 oC on watershed scale • Limited by meteorological data collection in mountainous basin • Heterogeneity in groundwater recharge not measured • Not all riparian buffers characterized directly by remote sensing 21

22. Findings--continued • + 3 oC resolution sufficient to guide decisions on 8 to 10 oC violations of salmonid criteria • At least supports adaptive management • If Tcriteria – 3 oC not readily achievable—more precise stream segment models necessary 22

23. Findings--continued • Cutting of riparian trees in east-west flowing channels clearly allowed water heating above salmonid criterion • Canyon shading in N-S streams may not require riparian restoration • Channel widening may not respond to riparian restoration alone to achieve salmonid temperature criteria in all segments 23

24. Actions Based on Findings • OR DEQ used stream segment models in data rich environment to set first stream temperature TMDL • Watershed scale results provided support for segment models • Provided management information for other segments not simulated 24

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27. More Actions • OW used classified remote sensing of riparian characteristics and SHADE to prioritize analysis of six NW watersheds 27

28. Technology Transfer: Briefings on Findings • OR DEQ and Indian Tribes • US and OR Forest Services • Eastern OR Cattleman’s Association and other NGO 28

29. Central Platte River • FERC Dam Re-Licensing • Vital Migratory Bird Lay Over • Threatened and Endangered Species • Birds—forage fisheries—temperature of Platte habitat • FERC, Nebraska, and others unable to define flow and climate effects vs. dams influence 29

30. Central Platte River 30

31. Agency Actions • Region 8 statistical analysis • OFA requested ORD support • Recommended rigorous stream segment modeling to define impact of dams on Platte temperature violations • Blue ribbon peer review panel of all Agency analyses to assess science basis for action in involving Administrator and Governor of Nebraska 31

32. Temperature Simulations • Region 8 selected U. Minnesota and Wenck Assoc. to calibrate and validate a stream segment model • Iowa State developed an independent equilibrium temperature approach • ORD chaired a 3-person panel with two members of the NAE to peer review statistical analysis and the 2 independent model simulations 32

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37. Findings • Independent temperature modeling by U. Minn. and Iowa State deemed scientifically sound to distinguish effects of dams and climate on temperature in Platte • Panel could not determine a scientific basis for the Region 8 statistical analysis but the right decision was made—need rigorous analysis 37

38. Outcomes • Model simulations and Agency interpretations were accepted without further debate • FERC used a similar statistical analysis and the Agency model results to require minimum low flows necessary to meet Nebraska Standards for 90% of climatic conditions • Stakeholder attacks on technical analysis stopped • Avoided need to elevate dispute to CEQ and Office of the White House 38

39. Conclusions • Physics-based temperature simulations are highly feasible for • Temperature TMDL analysis • FERC re-licensing and other environmental decision making • Current watershed and stream segment models clearly relate water quality conditions (temperature) to flow, climate, geomorphology, and other conditions 39

40. Acknowledgements • David Chen, University of Hong Kong • Doug Norton, OW • Robert Carousel, NERL • Wade Nutter, UGA • Frank Parker, Vanderbilt and Larry Roesner, CSU • John Gulliver (U. Minn.), Roy Gu (Iowa State), and Bashar Sinokrot (Wenck) 40