U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program

1. U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Initial Remarks Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November 12, 2002

2. What is a Stakeholder? • A stakeholder is any person, group, or entity with an active interest in some element of our study. • Stakeholders in the room are from: • Federal, State, and Local Government • Environmental Conservation Organizations • Concerned Citizens • Academics

3. What is our purpose today? • Three Goals: • Provide brief overview of our project and plans. • Solicit immediate feedback from those in the room. • Develop a “communications document” that will describe the way that we will disseminate information to you as the project progresses

4. Introductions….

5. U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – An Overview PI: Moglen Co-PI’s: Palmer, Bockstael, Pizzuto November 12, 2002 – University of Maryland

6. Context: Four Projects… • EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project: our first project as a group, focused on predicting and quantifying impacts of urbanization. • EPA NCEA/GCRP problem formulation report: preliminary investigation of climate and land use change effects. • EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 1: “This Project”, focuses on model development of interactive effects of simultaneous land use and climate change. • EPA STAR ProposalEffects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 2: focuses on model production, predicting ecological impacts of the interactive effects of stress from land use and climate change.

7. LU/LC Imagery MD Office of Planning MoCo Dept Env Protection RESAC, NASA EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: June 2000 - May 2004 PI: Palmer Co-PI’s :Moglen, Bockstael, Pizzuto Hydrology Requires expertise from multiple fields – academic and agency partners Geomorphology Economics Ecology Funding EPA’s Star Program NCEAS Policy & Planning State & County Gov’t Watershed Managers Stakeholders Mathematical & Computer Modeling Requires partners from national, state, local, and private sectors

8. EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project Hydrology Geomorphology University of Maryland Margaret A. Palmer Glenn E. Moglen Nancy E. Bockstael Economics Ecology GIS, Policy & Planning Colorado State University LeRoy Poff Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection Cameron Wiegand Keith Van Ness Dan Harper Lonnie Darr University of Delaware Jim Pizzuto

9. Economics/ Land Use Change Irrigation Sediment regime Increase in Channel form impervious surfaces Geomorphology Hydrology Light levels Peak flow Riparian Vegetation Particle size Base flow Suspended sediments Channel form Flow variability Nutrient regimes Bed mobility Water quality Ecology

10. EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: Some Goals Cattail • Test hypotheses about effects of new growth control policies • Develop a method to estimate peak flows at high spatial and temporal resolution • Develop a numerical model forecasting effects of land use changes, including time-varying changes in channel width, … and sediment transport • Develop statistical relationships between land use change and ecosystem structure and function Howard County Hawlings Northwest Branch Paint Branch Montgomery County

11. EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report • PI: Moglen, Co-PI: Palmer • Duration: January 2001 – July 2002 • Some Goals: • Investigate how land use and climate change drivers affect streamflow distributions in study watersheds • Forecast ecological effects of climate change and land use change using simulations with Aquatox

12. EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report – Simulated Flow

13. EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report – Ecological Consequences • Ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate more stronglyaffected by land use than future climate • higher means and higher annual variability • predictions about climate change depended on the climate change model assumed. • Oxygen most strongly affected by climate change. • Oxygen levels decreased under all climate change • Organic matter most strongly affected by land use • Organic matter inputs decreased due mostly to decreases in riparian vegetation

14. EPA NCEA/GCRP – Current Project (or why you’re here!) • PI: Moglen Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Palmer & Nelson, Pizzuto • Duration: August 2002 – December 2003 • Some Goals: “Model Development” • Develop methods to translate probabilistic economic predictions into input for other disciplines including plausible 20-50 year land use change scenarios • Modify continuous flow model to be sensitive to dynamically changing land use as well as climate inputs • Develop methodology for forecasting sediment delivery to 1st order streams • Develop spatial habitat suitability model for one species

15. EPA STAR Proposal • PI: Palmer Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Moglen, Nelson, Pizzuto, Tuchman • Duration: Sept. 2003 – Sept. 2006 • Some Goals: “Model Production” • Generate land use change forecasts taking account of likely policy responses to climate change and sea level rise • Use hydrologic models to describe future flow regimes under varying land use and climate change scenarios • Use calibrated models … to provide parameters needed to forecast the influence of climate and land use change on ecological services • Parameterize and test models using two multifactorial experiments with temperature, flow, UV, N:P and CO2 as factors.