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Statistical Methods in Reliability Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data

Statistical Methods in Reliability Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data. Jesse Lesperance Spring 2008. Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data.

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Statistical Methods in Reliability Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data

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  1. Statistical Methods in ReliabilityDiesel Generator Fan Failure Data Jesse Lesperance Spring 2008

  2. Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data • Manufacturer: DGF, Inc. - a leading manufacturer in industrial generator equipment developed, produced and distributed a new type of radiator fan for industrial diesel generators. • New product line provided a 5000 hour warranty on each new fan. • To date 70 fans have been sold and there usage-rates differed. • A year after the products release they started receiving fans back for failure at low hour times. (12 of 70 generator fans reported failure) Source: Meeker, William Q. and Luis A. Escobar (1998), Statistical Methods for Reliability Data, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 8-9, 630

  3. Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data Assumptions: • Life distribution of units censored at a given age must be the same as the life distribution of the units that run beyond that age • Multiply right-censored with failure times exceeding some of the running times • Type IV censoring • Assume that the potential lifetimes are independent and identically distributed with a continuous life distribution • Weibully distributed Methodology: • Begin by validating the assumptions and then use this to calculate the MTTF and MRL • Non-parametric analysis will need to be performed • Use this to answer DGF, Inc’s questions

  4. Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data Shape: 1.25115 Scale: 16868.0 Weibully Distributed

  5. DGF Diesel Generator Fan Failure Data Conclusions: • System reliability will get better as more units reach there independent life • Poor initial system reliability may be attributed to unnatural usage, but cannot be assessed without additional usage information. • Can anticipate ~2-3 additional failures within the 5,000 hour warranty period. 5000 Hours System Information: • MTTF: 7565 hours • 95% CI: 6898 hours to 8231 hours

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