kevin.hicks@york.ac.uk

1. Review of UNEP modelling results applying SLCP mitigation measures in Asia and discussion of key priorities for Southeast and Northeast Asia • Kevin Hicksand JohanKuylenstierna High Level Sub-regional Consultation on Advancing Action on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) In Southeast and Northeast Asia 19 Aug 2014, Bangkok, Thailand kevin.hicks@york.ac.uk

2. Talk Outline • Introduction to UNEP Assessments and the SLCP 16 mitigation options for black carbon, methane and co-emitted species • Benefits of measures by region for human health, crops and climate change • Conclusions and some thoughts on the way forward

3. Two key reports that brought political attention to SLCPs Available at: http://www.unep.org/ccac/

4. A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce emissions and achieve multiple benefits • Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission changes • Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2 • Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit • Black carbon measures • addressing emissions from incomplete combustion • - BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs • Methane measures • reducing methane emissions No technical breakthroughs These measures already implemented in many countries Cost-effective

5. The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from wastewater Recovery from oil and gas Recovery from livestock manure / feed Recovery from landfill Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage

6. The measures aiming to reduce black carbon emissions Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF Improved biomass stoves Cooking with clean fuel Improved brick kilns Pellet biomass heating stoves Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring

7. Effect of measures on global emissions projected in 2030 relative to Reference emissions in 2030 9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030

8. Effect of 16 measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005 9 BC measures reduce ̴80% of BC Reference: CH4 increases 7 CH4 measures reduce ̴25% of CH4 (2005); or ̴ 40% relative to 2030 BC measures reduce CO

9. This integrative approach allows benefits of measures to be assessed in terms of climate, human health and food security

10. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures recovery from coal mines oil and gas production gas pipelines municipal waste Recovery from livestock manure / feed Intermittent aeration of continuously flooded rice paddies Relatively low uncertainty regarding temperature impact

11. The share of global temperature reduction from implementing black carbon measures Bigger uncertainty for impact on climate

12. Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of Rainfall Patterns Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference case in the two models • Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to warming of the atmosphere occurs • This drives regional weather pattern changes

13. 2.4 million avoided premature deaths - fromreducing outdoor PM alone • Approx. equal number avoided from reducing indoor air pollution

14. 2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM S, W & C Asia 1.15 million deaths/yr Premature mortality avoided (1000s of deaths) Africa 200 thousand deaths/yr

15. Health Benefits by Country

16. Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan Clean air Air with ambient ozone Avoid loss of 52 million tonnes (within a range of 30–140 million tonnes), 1–4 per cent, of the global production of maize, rice, soybean and wheat each year Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields

17. This analysis can be linked to specific policy measures in different regions Global crop yield loss avoided due methane measures

18. How much does it cost? Costs of implementing 16 measures 50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions: Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency • Black carbon measures • Improved stoves • Upgraded brick kilns • Methane measures • Recovery from fossil fuel production (coal mines; gas distribution) • Waste / landfill management

19. SLCPs as a way to achieve SDGs • Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closely linked to many pressing development needs: • Health • Sustainable energy access • Food security • Urban development: waste, sanitation/ sewerage, and sustainable transport • Adverse climate change impacts

20. National level: Fast start actions Why national action? • Most of health benefits related to air pollution reduction close to emission sources. • Integrate measures with local sustainable development • Integrate measures with national climate policy. Options for fast action • Target obvious SLCP sources for immediate action • Consolidate actions in National Action Plan Specific Action on Methane • Near-term benefits will only be realised if specific action on methane is taken

21. General Conclusions • Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions will benefit from improved health - avoid 2.4 million premature deaths; +INDOOR!; crop yields - avoid > 50 million tonnes loss every year • 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the warming projected by the Reference Scenario • Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. Asian rainfall patterns • Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC target, but contingent on ambitious CO2 reductions, starting now (complementary strategies; not alternatives) • The identified measures are all currently in use and many measures achieve cost savings over time. • much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve the benefits outlined.

22. Way forward in NE and SE Asia • Global analysis shows that this region can potentially achieve the largest social and economic benefits from tackling SLCPs • Need to understand regional specificities and the potential for integration of SLCP measures with existing policies • Large health benefits for indoor and outdoor pollution can be obtained by tackling residential combustion sources in the region • Ongoing policy to control NOx and NMVOC emissions to control the peak ground level ozone problem in Asia should be carefully integrated with the SLCP measures to obtain greatest benefits in each sector • Mitigation options and policies for sectors that produce emissions that have short and long-term impacts on climate should be carefully designed to avoid tradeoffs

23. Translating the Science into Policy and Action http://www.unep.org/ccac/