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Public Opinion

Public Opinion. What is Public Opinion. Definition: The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues When there is a generally agreement, we call that a consensus. Something to think about….

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Public Opinion

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  1. Public Opinion

  2. What is Public Opinion • Definition: The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues • When there is a generally agreement, we call that a consensus

  3. Something to think about… In 1984, researchers asked 1200 Cincinnati residents whether they favored passage of the Monetary Control Bill of 1983. Here are the results: • Favored the bill – 21% • Opposed the bill – 25% • The rest didn’t care much or didn’t know about it

  4. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE MONETARY CONTROL BILL OF 1983!

  5. How Polls are Conducted • Sample – small proportion of people who are chosen to represent the whole • Accuracy of polls depends on random sampling (everyone should have an equal probability of being selected) • Sampling Error – the level of confidence in the accuracy of the results produced by sample • The more people interviewed, the more confident you can be • 1500 – 2000 respondents have a sampling error of +/-3% (results are within 3 % of what population thinks)

  6. Accurate representation is the most important feature of a survey! A 1936 Literary Digest poll underestimated the vote for FDR by 19%, erroneously predicting a big victory for Republican Alf Landon. The well-established magazine suddenly became a laughingstock and soon went out of business. • # of responses to survey – 2,376,000 (wow!) • Sample was pulled from telephone book and motor vehicle records • So what was wrong with the survey?

  7. How are Polls used? • To determine public preferences • Supporters of public polling suggest that it helps democracy by keeping leaders informed of how the public feels • Critics of public polling suggest that it makes politicians more concerned with following than leading • Can distort the election process • Bandwagon effect • Exit polls (allow the media to project the “winner”

  8. How are Polls used? • Pollsters can get the results that they want • Wording of a question

  9. So, where do our beliefs come from?Especially party identification? • Family • Religion • Social status (ex: early in US history, Catholic immigrants faced discrimination, sided with the doctrine that was most sympathetic to their flight) • Religious tradition • Gender Gap – difference in views between male and female • Schooling and Information

  10. Cleavages in Public Opinion • Cleavages refers to the “split” or “division” • Race, income, gender, level of education, etc. • Cross-cutting Cleavage – one group separated by a cleavage (race), may not be wholly separated by another (income)

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