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Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011

This presentation explores the relationship between demography and the likelihood of liberal democracy in Tunisia and the Greater Middle East region. Using data from the UN Population Division and insights from Richard Cincotta, it delves into the impact of age structures on political stability and democratization processes. The study addresses key questions on the readiness of states for liberal democracy, stability of democracies, breaks in liberalization, and expectations for democratization in developing countries. Insights on the Youth Bulge Hypothesis and the Hobbesian Bargain Theory are also discussed, shedding light on factors influencing the transition to liberal democracy.

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Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011

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  1. Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East Richard Cincotta Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center rcincotta@stimson.org Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011

  2. Thanks to: • National Intelligence CouncilLong Range Analysis Unit • Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program. • The Stimson Center

  3. Four democracy questions • Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? • Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? • Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? • What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?

  4. Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  5. Jordan Syria Egypt Algeria Tunisia Year (5-yr period)

  6. Transitional Population age structures 2005 Cincotta, 2009 Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  7. Four categories: four individual countries DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009

  8. Effort needed to recruit for political violence Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis: Security Elites Citizenry Political rights Civil liberties Youth Bulge Hypothesis: Low amount of effort needed High amount of effort needed

  9. Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature Net Benefits Authoritarianism Liberalization 15 25 35 45 55 Median Age (Years)

  10. Violent intra-state conflict Liberal democracy Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature Likelihood 15 25 35 45 55 Median Age (Years)

  11. Transitional Population age structures 2005 • Zone of Vulnerability: • high risk of political violence • high risk of losing liberal democracy Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  12. Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature Proportion Liberal democracies Nil set

  13. Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness in 5 world regions, 1975-2005 Cincotta & Doces, 2011 Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  14. Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines. Cincotta, 2009

  15. Four democracy questions • Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? • States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy • Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? • States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies. • Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? • Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years) • What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization? • Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.

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