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Corps of Engineers

Missouri River Mainstem System 2014-2015 Draft Annual Operating Plan. US Army. Corps of Engineers. Mike Swenson, P.E. Power Production Team Lead Missouri River Basin Water Management. Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center. June Precipitation – Percent of Normal.

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Corps of Engineers

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  1. Missouri River Mainstem System 2014-2015 Draft Annual Operating Plan US Army Corps of Engineers Mike Swenson, P.E. Power Production Team Lead Missouri River Basin Water Management

  2. Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center

  3. June Precipitation – Percent of Normal

  4. July Precipitation – Percent of Normal

  5. August Precipitation – Percent of Normal

  6. 3-Month OutlooksAugust - October

  7. Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA Million Acre-Feet 2014 Historic Drought Periods 34.5 MAF 10% U.D. 30.6 25% U.Q. 24.6 50% Med. 19.3 75% L.Q. 16.1 90% L.D.

  8. Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2014 Actual and Forecasted Million Acre-Feet

  9. Missouri River Mainstem System Storage Zones and Allocations Storage In MAF 72.8 Historic max - 2011 72.4 Exclusive Flood Control 7% 67.7 Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% 60.8 Sept 16, 2014 56.1 Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min - 2007 33.9 17.6 50.7 MAF - March 1, 2014 Permanent Pool 24% 0

  10. Current Reservoir Levels – Sept 15, 2014 Fort Peck Garrison 1854.8 2252.3 1854 2250 Exclusive Flood Control Exclusive Flood Control 1850 2246 Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 1844.7 1837.5 2232.4 2234 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use 2196.2 1805.8 1775 2160 Permanent Pool Permanent Pool 1673 2030 1.6 feet below base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone. 7.2 feet above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone. Oahe System Storage 72.4 1620 72.8 1619.7 Exclusive Flood Control Exclusive Flood Control 67.7 1617 Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 1614.4 60.8 56.1 1607.5 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use 33.9 1570.2 17.6 1540 Permanent Pool Permanent Pool 0 1415 6.9 feet above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone. 4.7 MAF above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone.

  11. 2014 Reservoir Operations • Flood Control • System storage peaked on September 1 at 61.3 MAF, utilizing 32 percent of the system’s flood control storage • Gavins Point releases reduced in mid-June in response to record flooding on the Big Sioux River. Release reduction lowered peak stages 3 to 4 feet in most areas • Releases increased at lower four projects in September to evacuate stored water • Navigation • Started season at intermediate service • Increased to full service flow support after July 1 storage check • 10-Day extension to the navigation season • Hydropower • Annual generation forecast is 9.9 BkWh; long term average is 9.4 BkWh • Recreation, Water Supply and Irrigation • Normal to above reservoir levels and releases • Gavins Point winter release will be 20,000 cfs • Fish and Wildlife / Endangered Species • All three upper reservoirs rose this year during the forage fish spawn • Spring pulses from Gavins Point dam were not conducted this year

  12. Planned Operation for 2015 • Draft Annual Operating Plan developed using 1 September starting conditions • Based on 5 statistical runoff scenarios • Will begin runoff year at the base of the Annual Flood Control Zone • No spring pulse in 2015 • Letter to Tribes will offer consultation • Draft AOP released in September 2014 • Public meetings scheduled for October 27-29, 2014 • Fort Peck, Bismarck, Pierre, Smithville and Council Bluffs • Final Annual Operating Plan in December 2014

  13. 2014 2015 2016 System Storage 2014-2015 Decision Points Million Acre-Feet Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 maf Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 maf Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 maf Navigation Preclude – 31 maf

  14. Missouri River Downstream Flow SupportSupport for 2015 Navigation Season * 10-day extension for Upper Quartile and Upper Decile

  15. Draft 2014-2015 Annual Operating Plan (AOP)Median Runoff Condition • Flood Control • Begin 2015 runoff season at the base of the annual flood control zone • Navigation • Full service flow support to start season • Full service flow support for Lower Quartile and above runoff following July 1 storage check • Full length navigation season • Hydropower – Annual Generation = 9.7 BkWh in 2015

  16. Draft 2014-2015 Annual Operating Plan (AOP)Median Runoff Condition • Recreation, water supply and irrigation • Near normal reservoir levels and releases • Winter releases of 17,000 cfs from Gavins Point • Fish and Wildlife / Endangered Species • Favor Fort Peck and Oahe during forage fish spawn • No March and May spring pulses from Gavins Point • Minimize zero releases at Fort Randall to the extent reasonably possible

  17. Energy in GWh Missouri River Mainstem SystemForecasted Energy Generation Upper Basic: 10,500 GWh Basic: 9,900 GWh Lower Basic: 9,400 GWh

  18. Mainstem System Generation Million MWhs 14.6 13.5 12.8 11.2 11.1 10.0 10.4 10.2 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.4 9.6 8.7 8.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.9 UD Med LD Normal

  19. Missouri River Basin – Mountain Snowpack Water Content 2013-2014 with comparison plots from 1997*, 2001*, and 2011 July 7, 2014 The mountain snowpack peaked in the “Total above Fort Peck” reach on April 7 at 132% of the normal April 15 peak. The mountain snowpack peaked in the “Total Fort Peck to Garrison” reach on April 17 at 140% of the normal April 15 peak. *Generally considered the high and low year of the last 20-year period. Provisional data. Subject to revision.

  20. Plains Snowpack 1 March 2011 1 March 2013 1 March 2014

  21. Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center

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