Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing) 24 th October 2005 paul.watkiss@aeat.co.uk

1. Adaptation: Policy Perspectives Paul Watkiss (for Tom Downing) 24th October 2005 paul.watkiss@aeat.co.uk

2. Adaptation • Given historic/current emissions - already committed to climate change (~2C?) • Policy debate starting to switch to adaptation • Adaptation focuses on risks and opportunities to adapt to climate change • Action in the short, medium and longer-term • Institutional, structural, research

3. Sectors – Key Impacts (€) = Key adaptation • Sea level rise • Agriculture* • Energy use • Human health (temperature and disease)* • Water resources, water supply and water quality* • Tourism* • Ecosystems (productivity and bio-diversity*) • Built environment / infrastructure* (extremes - flooding, storm) • Major events From Supporting Material (impacts and costs of climate change) for Communication on climate change http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/staff_work_paper_sec_2005_180_3.pdf

4. Adaptation Policy Review • Review of adaptation policy • Review potential policy frameworks – does adaptation fit within a conventional decision making framework? • Review potential issues that likely to emerge in adaptation – and that need a policy perspective • What is successful adaptation?

5. Adaptation Policy Progress • Starting to see emergence of adaptation policy frameworks and plans… • IPCC • UNDP/GEF Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) • FINADAPT • Canadian Climate Change • Australian Government - National Climate Change Adaptation Programme • UK CIP + UK Defra Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) • UK work considering objectives, targets, indicators • Most – scope impact, quantify risks, discuss decision making / action.

6. Major Policy Challenges (1) • Uncertainty • Long time-frames • Different levels of certainty (projections, risks extremes, major events) • Dis-aggregration (high resolution needed for cost-effective adaptation) • Consideration of precautionary principle? • Irreversible losses (ecosystems) • Policy action and legislation (real adaptation) • Carried out at regional / local level by public / private sector. • Effective / appropriate adaptation “stakeholder-led”, rather than enforced

7. Major Policy Challenges (2) • Allocating costs • Who should pay? Can we implement the polluter pays? • Cost-effective adaptation? • Climate proofing all human activities ? extremely expensive • Likely to see a focus on cost-effective and proportionate adaptation • Considering impact-assessment and CBA? • Only adapt where costs of adaptation are less than costs of climate change • Avoiding Mal-adaptation • Inefficient use of resources compared to other options • Ineffective (scenarios that not appear) • Displacing vulnerability from one actor to another

8. Major Policy Challenges (3) • Option appraisal and cost analysis • Historical focus on policy focusing on technological options (and costs) • Adaptation needs to consider non-technical options more explicitly • impact assessment frameworks do not easily assess NT options • Economic, ethical and political issues • How discount long-term impacts CC vs costs of adaptation options now • How should adaptation consider equity and distributional benefits • Should we focus adaptation on protecting those less able to adapt (vs those with capital / resources) • Within countries, across Europe, Europe vs. developing countries

9. Successful adaptation? • 1. Prepare to adapt by building capacity • Research • Awareness • Policies • Monitoring • 2. Alter existing plans to manage climate risks and take advantage of new opportunities • Urgent and high priority • Win-win, Low cost • Existing frameworks • Disaster responses • 3. Implement adaptation actions • Cost-effective/Cost benefit analysis • Additional criteria-existing frameworks • Modify infrastructure • Alter processes

10. In Detail • 1. Define the overall (European) policy aim • 2. Determine priority sectors for adaptation action • 3. Characterise priority risks / opportunities (in each sector) • 3a. Identify potential adaptation options • 3b. Appraise adaptation options • 4. Propose adaptation objectives • 5. Define adaptation targets and indicators • 6. Link up policy framework at the EU, national and sectoral level • 7. Implement • 8. Monitor, Review and Revise

11. Conclusions • Adaptation • Need to develop policy framework – • Address policy issues • Research on costs and benefits • Cost-effective and proportionate • Mainstream adaptation policy in a conventional decision-making and economic perspective • Tiered approach: prepare – plan - proceed