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Early Early Warning Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman

Early Early Warning Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio. Stylised fact.

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Early Early Warning Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman

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  1. Early Early Warning Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman

  2. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ……….

  3. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

  4. STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

  5. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

  6. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

  7. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

  8. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

  9. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement Revenge

  10. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

  11. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

  12. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies State control MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

  13. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector ECONOMIC ORDER Divisive ideologies State control MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

  14. PROTECTIVE Security Vulnerability Access to Justice ECONOMIC Macro: growth/stability Micro: Assets Opportunities POLITICAL-JURIDICAL Rights Influence Freedoms BASIC SERVICES Health Education Nutrition SOCIOCULTURAL Status Dignity Contacts (social capital) POOR

  15. THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE STATE Private Law (Property, contract, etc) State Institutions (communities, associations) Health Education Talent Character • Environment: • Economy • Polity • Society Entitlements Capacities Claims Activities ACQUIREMENT (failure)

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