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Earthquake Early Warning

Earthquake Early Warning. Use P-wave to get magnitude and location Predict shaking at more distant sites. Areas for improvement P-wave-based magnitude estimate may saturate for large earthquakes

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Earthquake Early Warning

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  1. Earthquake Early Warning • Use P-wave to get magnitude and location • Predict shaking at more distant sites • Areas for improvement • P-wave-based magnitude estimate may saturate for large earthquakes • Earthquake source dimensions and fault orientation can improve shaking predictions and tsunami warnings

  2. Real-time slip model for Tohoku-oki from GPS Data Real-time GPS Prediction JMA EEW (seismic) Probabilities for fault orientations Best fault orientation

  3. Mean rupture model • Bayesian inference for Tohoku-oki kinematic rupture model using physical priors • Parallel Monte Carlo simulation on NAS Pleiades • ~50 billion rupture scenarios calculated in parallel on thousands of cores Uncertainties in space and time

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