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Global Change Research in Belgium 1990-2002

Global Change Research in Belgium 1990-2002. Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Hamburg, Germany. An enigma from the ice….

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Global Change Research in Belgium 1990-2002

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  1. Global Change Research in Belgium1990-2002 Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Hamburg, Germany

  2. An enigma from the ice… The only place this much carbon can “hide” during the ice ages is in the ocean  strong coupling between climate and marine carbon cycle Methane comes mostly from wetlands  strong coupling between climate and terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle Antarctic record of temperature, CO2 and CH4

  3. … pointing into an uncertain future… History shows that physical climate, ocean dynamics, and terrestrial ecosystems are a strongly linked system. In the last 150 years, we have introduced massive perturbations in some of the forcing variables --- How will the system respond??? ?

  4. The Earth System

  5. The Earth: A Complex Dynamical System • In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.

  6. The International Geosphere Biosphere ProgrammeIGBP IGBP provides scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth. Specifically IGBP studies the interactions between biological, physical, and chemical processes, and human systems. It collaborates with other programmes to provide the knowledge necessary to respond to environmental change.

  7. IGBP Projects • Atmosphere: IGAC • Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC • Land: GLP • Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS • Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS • Land-Ocean: LOICZ • Integration: PAGES and AIMES AIMES GLP

  8. Health www.ess-p.org

  9. Challenges for the Future Based on P. Cox, 2004 CLIMATE Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources Greenhouse Effect Heat island effect Human Emissions AEROSOLS GREENHOUSE GASES CH4, O3, N2O, CFC Fires: soot Mineral dust Oxidants: OH, H2O2 HO2,O3 Human Emissions CO2 N deposition 03, UV radiation (Gas-phase) CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS Biogenic Emissions:CH4,DMS,VOC’s Dry deposition: stomatal conductance Land-use Change, Fires Human Emissions LAND WATER / CITIES Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks

  10. Carbon and Climate

  11. 1860 - 2100 CO2 emissions 2300 GtC ECHAM5 T63L31 CO2 transport 610 GtC HAMOCC MPI-OM JSBACH interface export production THC upwelling albedo carbonpools soil, hydrological and energy balance phenology C transport photosynthesis stomatal conductance 40.000 GtC

  12. Atmospheric CO2 concentration (global and annual mean) 80 ppm CO2 acts on radiation, stomata and photosynthesis (with climate feedback) CO2 ppm CO2 acts on stomata and photosynthesis, but not on radiation (no climate feedback) year

  13. Difference in carbon uptake between experiments (with minus without carbon cycle - climate feedback) [kgC / m2] 2100 positive feedback negative feedback

  14. Atmospheric CO2 Difference Atmospheric CO2 Feedback C4MIP (IGBP/AIMES)

  15. Air Quality and Climate Change

  16. (K) Climate Response to Potential Improvement in Air Quality • In blue: GHG unchanged after year 2000 (commitment experiment). • In Red: GHG unchanged and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols removed after year 2000 (sensitivity experiment). (%)

  17. Response in Temperature and Precipitation(30 year average) • Temperature increase larger than 1K over the continents, larger than 4K in the Arctic. • Temperature and precipitation changes bear some resemblance with greenhouse warming experiments • A significant increase in precipitation is found in Eastern Pacific, suggesting an El-Nino like change in the mean climate state.

  18. Global Change and the Social System

  19. Including Social feedbacks Human perturbation Earth System Model Human impact

  20. Including Social feedbacks Human perturbation Earth System Model Human impact Land use Water use Energy production and consumption Population growth Economic growth Structure of the economy Human health

  21. Challenges for the Future • Earth system science should contribute to the themes that will drive fundamental research in the 21st century: • Interfaces between the micro- and the macro-worlds • Interfaces between the living and the dead nature • Interfaces between nature and culture

  22. Thank You

  23. Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

  24. Atmosphere Models The Earth System Unifying the Models Climate / Weather Models Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemistry Water Cycle The Predictive Earth System Hydrology Process Models Ocean Models Land Surface Models Natural Hazard Prediction Terrestrial Biosphere Models Solid Earth Models Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems 2000 2010

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