10-2

1. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Warm Up Problem of the Day Lesson Presentation

2. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Warm Up 1.You have a jar containing 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble? Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain. 2.Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%. Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting? blue certain

3. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Problem of the Day Based on a series of free throws, Liana figured out the probability of her making a free throw was 2 3 . If she made 24 of her free throws, how many did she miss? 12

4. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Learn to find experimental probability.

5. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Insert Lesson Title Here Vocabulary experimental probability trial

6. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. It is based on actual experience or observations. Experimental probability is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials, the times an experiment is carried out or an observation is made. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

7. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 number of times an event occurs probability  total number of trials

8. Experimental Probability 10-2 number of times an event occurs total number of trials P  number of jumps landed number of jumps attempted P  7 12  The experimental probability that Sasha will land her next jump is . 7 12 Course 2 Additional Example 1: Sports Application During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump? Substitute.

9. Experimental Probability 10-2 number of free throws made number of free throws attempted P  9 10  The experimental probability that Martha will make the next free throw is . 9 10 Course 2 Insert Lesson Title Here Try This: Example 1 During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt? number of times an event occurs total number of trials P  Substitute.

10. Experimental Probability 10-2 Writing Math “P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).” 0 total number of trials P(impossible event) = Course 2 Recall that an outcome of an experiment can be impossible, certain, or in between. If an event is impossible, it will never happen in any trial. = 0 0 divided by any number except 0 equals 0.

11. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 If an event is certain, it will always happen in every trial. This means that the number of times the event happens is equal to the total number of trials. total number of trials total number of trials P(certain event) = = 1 Any number except 0 divided by itself equals 1.

12. Experimental Probability 10-2 0 1 1 2 As likely as not Impossible Unlikely Likely Certain Course 2 All probabilities can be expressed numerically on a scale from 0 to 1.

13. Experimental Probability 10-2 32 55 . Course 2 Additional Example 2A: Application Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction. A. What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction? number of fiction books checked out total number of books checked out P(fiction)  32 55 Substitute.  The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately

14. Experimental Probability 10-2 23 55 . Course 2 Additional Example 2B : Application B. What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction? number of nonfiction books checked out total number of books checked out P(nonfiction)  23 55  Substitute. The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be nonfiction is approximately

15. Experimental Probability 10-2 number of pears selected total number of fruit selected P(pear)  18 47 . Course 2 Insert Lesson Title Here Try This: Example 2A Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears. A. What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear? 18 47 Substitute.  The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately

16. Experimental Probability 10-2 number of apples selected total number of fruit selected P(apple)  29 47 . Course 2 Insert Lesson Title Here Try This: Example 2B B. What is the experimental probability that next fruit selected will be an apple? 29 47 Substitute.  The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is approximately

17. Experimental Probability 10-2 Course 2 Insert Lesson Title Here Lesson Quiz 1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that he will make the next shot? 2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton. What is the experimental probability that it will rain this year on July 4? 3. There have been 15 or more birds eating at a feeder at noon on 12 of the last 15 days. What is the experimental probability that there will be 15 or more birds feeding at that same time on the 16th day? 4 9 1 5 4 5