Long-term monitoring and the perspective of detection and attribution of long-term change

1. Biologische Anstalt hHlgoland 18. September 2012 Long-term monitoring and the perspective of detection and attribution of long-term change Hans von Storch Institute ofCoastal Research Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Germany

2. Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Location: mainly Geesthacht. Institutes for Material Research Polymer Research Coastal Research plus Climate Service Center Total annual budget 95 Mio € Total number of employees: 850 Hamburg Geesthacht Berlin Teltow München

3. Coastal Research at the IfK@HZG Three key questions • What is the present synoptic state of the costal sea? (COSYNA) • What are the long term (decades of years) changes in the coastal zones, and which changes may be expected fur the future? (CoastDat) • What are the spatially distributed properties of the coastal sea floor? (CoastMap)

4. : Objectives • Generate synoptic view of the southern North Sea with new parameters and methods. • Provide new methods for regular observing and reporting key environmental parameters. • Enhance the exploitation of near real time data in order to improve coastal ocean forecasting. • Provide a design for the next generation observing systems, including hardware, software, quality assurance and sampling strategies.

5. Rsearch Platform COSYNA Folie 5 GKSS 2010

6. COSYNA develops methods for the operational (routine) description (analysis) of the state of the North Sea, or parts thereof in terms of physical state, water quality and ecosystem, in the past (months), presence and future (days). This is achieved by means of “products”, which are accessible for stakeholders First COSYNA products Mapping of currents in the German Bight; radar-data (WERA) assimilated into numerical models. Present status plus 3 day forecast (running) Forecast of salinity and temperature of the North Sea (in preparation) Forecast of suspended sediment matter (in preparation)

8. Folie 8 GKSS 2010

9. Product #1: Analysis of surface currents in the German Bight employing radar measurements and data assimilation in dynamical model Hours after Dec 5, 2009, 00 UTC: HF radar observations Predicted current Kalman filter analysis Complete, optimized current fields Only model Data assimilated

10. Technology example: Ferry boxDetection of short term events Salinities from all FB transects in 2008 Freshwater lens emanated from Rhine estuary „Ferrybox“ for the in-situ measurements of water quality parameters on the ferry Cuxhaven-Immingham 10

11. The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal Research@hzg • Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (60 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years) • Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe • Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances. Applications • many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts • economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company • Public information www.coastdat.de

12. Reconstructionof marine „weather“ in thepastdecadesofyears in inpossiblefutures („scenarios“)

13. CoastDat: Extreme wind events simulated and deived form local observations simuliert

14. More than 60 usersMostly in Europe (Germany)but also China and USA Diverse users50% commerical (e.g., Swiss Re, Deltares, Flensburger Shipbuilding),25% authorities25% scientific users Various applicationsOptimal ship designPlanning and design of offshore wind energyMarine energyAssessment of pollution risks and changes (chronic oil pollution, dispersion of lead)Security of shipping CoastDat: External users

15. Using CoastDart wind for planning ofOff-shore wind parks

16. Climate Change of Scenarios 2030: temperature +1 ±0.4 degree; strong wind +2%±1% (winter); Precipitation –10% summer, +10% winter (±5%); 2085: temperatures +3 ±1.2 degree; strong wind +8%±4%; (winter) precipitation –30% summer, +30% winter (±10%);

17. CoastMapA digital inventory of seafloor characteristics of the German Bight • Integration of observation data and model results • Online portal for the compilation and provision of research data on seafloor characteristics • Topic-oriented Web-GIS CoastMap How variable is the Wadden Sea? coastlab How endangered is the Wadden Sea? How polluted is the Wadden Sea? Data in Web-GIS Topics How endangered is the Wadden Sea? changing topics e.g. oil-sensitivity

18. Example: Renewable energies Converting 1/3 of the seafloor for the installation of offshore windfarms (Umnutzung von 1/3 des Meeresbodens) Increased use: Seafloor properties, sensitivities to natural and human caused disturbance, and the risk of losing ecosystem services of the seafloor are insufficiently known. EU-Marine Strategie Framework Directive: Good environmental status has to to be described, assessed and monitored by means of adequate indicators. Development plan till 2030 (according to national regulations) Total capacity 25.564 MW (source: Burkard 2008)

19. Example: Oil spills (here: hypothetical accident in the northern Wadden Sea area) Base Map: Sensitivityclassification scheme of the german coast based on biological and sedimentological characteristics. + Model (PELETS-2D): Drift Simulations to assess oil slick dispersal based on reconstructed weather conditions (coastDat) and assumed oil decay rates. Action planning for hazard control (www.havariekommando.de)

20. Socio-cultural contextualisation • Planning and management of seas and coastal zones • Perception of Change and risk in costal regions

21. North German Climate Office@hzg An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning • that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders • that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits.

22. The Baltic Sea Catchment Assessment: BACC An effort to establish which scientifically legitimized knowledge about anthropogenic climate change is available for the Baltic Sea catchment. Approximately 80 scientist from 10 countries have documented and assessed the published knowledge. The assessment has been accepted by the inter-governmental HELCOM commission as a basis for its future deliberations. In 2013 a second assessment report (BACC II) will be published.

23. LOICZ is an international research project and network involving more than 1000 scientists and over 50 individualresearch projects from across the globe who have been investigating changes in the biology, chemistry and physics of the coastal zone since 1993. Since 2003, LOICZ has expanded its areas of research to include social, political and economic sciences in order to address the human dimensions of the coastal zone and since 2006 LOICZ is hosted at the Institute of Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. Mission: LOICZ, working to support sustainability and adaptation to global change in the coastal zone. Currently LOICZ is focusing on these Hotspots:  Urbanization in coastal zones  Arctic  River Mouth System, incl. Dltas and Estuaries Islands at risk Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) LOICZ is a core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) which are part of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) www.LOICZ.org

24. Take home The research program of the Institute of Coastal Research takes into account questions of stakeholders and of the public, while maintaining a high scientific standard. This presentation described only parts of the program; the embedding into the overall program of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers has not been described. Also other elements of cooperation within the German community of coastal and oceanic researchers has not been addressed. Three key projects of the Institute of Coastal Research have been briefly sketched: The development of methods/technology for monitoring the coastal seas (COSYNA) with relevance of planning and management, the assessment of ongoing and expected future change in coastal zones (CoastDat) with relevance of risk analysis and adaptation, and finally CoastMap dealing with conditions, vulnerability and exploitation of the coastal sea bottom. Also some work on building community and dialogue with regional stakeholders is part of the program.