1 / 17

Joint production of cocoa powder and butter: price implications, explanations

Joint production of cocoa powder and butter: price implications, explanations. Kees Burger. Leuven, 17 September 2012. Starting points. Beans are roasted and ground into paste (liquor) Paste is Either sold as is Or processed into Cake, for powder Butter

erich-brady
Download Presentation

Joint production of cocoa powder and butter: price implications, explanations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Joint production of cocoa powder and butter: price implications, explanations Kees Burger Leuven, 17 September 2012

  2. Starting points • Beans are roasted and ground into paste (liquor) • Paste is • Either sold as is • Or processed into • Cake, for powder • Butter • Ratio of 1. and 2. variable; ratio of a) and b) fixed at, say ½ • Returns to 1. should equal returns to 2. and therefore equal average of a) and b). • Factors affecting each of 1., a) or b) also affect the other components

  3. 1. and 2. same price a) and b) move in opposite direction along a straight line Q1. Is this so? Q2. Does this provide a better basis for explaining the dramatic changes in the powder-butter prices? Some graphs: Consequences for the prices

  4. A look at the relationships between the prices (EU, 2000-2010)

  5. Monthly beans, powder and butter prices NL, 1999-2012, €/ton

  6. powder margin x butter margin monthly data; 1999-2011; NL, €/ton

  7. Cocoa and butter ratios, monthly, NL 1999-2011

  8. Pbut Ppow Demand and supply schemes Ppaste Grindings

  9. Pbut Ppow Demand and supply schemes Ppaste Grindings

  10. Demand for paste Demand for butter Demand for powder Technical restrictions Economic arbitrage This by itself already suggests the 135o line: Model

  11. Solve for prices: Price of paste = Price of butter = Price of powder = Implications: Consequences for the prices

  12. Movement along the 135-degree line Pc-Pk Distance = M + pc – pb . M Pb-Pk

  13. Compare with simply taking Pc as dependent variable: Analysis of position on line

  14. Simple regression

  15. Compare with estimated/predicted Analysis of position on line

  16. The regression suggests sensitivity to demand (-) and supply (+) factors b1<c1 plausible (butter less sensitive to prices than powder) The lack of predictive power is reason for concern Possible reasons: European specificities Major exporter of powder; importer of butter, paste Grindings fell in 2009, 2010 Strong demand from Ukraine, Russia (and Turkey) No statistical confirmation of this effect Comments

  17. Suggestions welcome Thank you

More Related