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Transition York Region Sustainable Business Conference, Earth Rangers October 18, 2010

Transition Town Initiatives. From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience. Transition York Region Sustainable Business Conference, Earth Rangers October 18, 2010. We’ll be covering. what all the fuss is about the need for Transition the nuts and bolts of Transition Initiatives

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Transition York Region Sustainable Business Conference, Earth Rangers October 18, 2010

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  1. Transition Town Initiatives From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience Transition York RegionSustainable Business Conference, Earth Rangers October 18, 2010

  2. We’ll be covering... • what all the fuss is about • the need forTransition • the nuts and bolts of Transition Initiatives • what has been achieved so far • next steps • how we can support one another

  3. A Work In Progress… This work, just like the Transition model, is brought to you by people who are actively engaged in Transition in a community—people who are learning by doing and learning all the time, people who understand that we can’t sit back and wait for someone else to do the work. People like YOU, perhaps…

  4. PEAK OIL How can we prepare? How will these affect us? CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

  5. Peak Oil

  6. Discovery, Production, Demand

  7. Post peak oil producers (64) Oil producers (98) www.lastoilshock.com

  8. “The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation…the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” • The Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of EnergyFebruary 2005

  9. Possible Energy Stories for the Future Techno-Fantasy Peak Energy Green-Tech Stability Industrial Ascent Creative Descent (Permaculture)‏ Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Pre-industrial culture Future Time Historical Time Great GrandChildren Industrial Revolution BabyBoom Agriculture 10.000yrsBP

  10. “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013…given recent price experience, a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible” —Professor Paul StevensChatham House Photo: Sustainable Energy Security Report, Lloyds & Chatham House

  11. The Need for Energy Transition • The challenge of global climate change makes a shift away from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival. • The impending peak in oil and gas production means that the transition is inevitable. • Our only choice is whether to proactively undertake the transition now—or later. • Transition Initiatives make the transition feasible, viable and attractive.

  12. Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Americas)

  13. Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Aus/NZ)

  14. Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Europe and beyond)

  15. Who’s designing creative, positive energy descent? (UK and Ireland)

  16. In Canada • In Ontario • Peterborough • Guelph • Dundas • Ottawa • London • Poplar Hill/Coldstream • Barrie • Other Provinces: • Victoria, BC • Vancouver, BC • Nelson, BC • Powell River, BC • Salt Spring Island, BC • Cocagne, NB • Cowichan Valley, BC • Alberni Valley, BC • Golden Ears, BC • Woodstock, NB Photo: Transition Victoria event, ‘The Capital” Newspaper article, Sharing Circle at T4T Vancouver

  17. The Beginnings

  18. Transition Town Totnes • Rob Hopkins, Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP) • Cooperative, phased process of transition from fossil fuels • 2006 Great Unleashing • Working groups launched projects • Collaboration with town council Photo: Planting Nut Trees, Totnes Pound, David Pearson/Rex Features, Guardian UK

  19. How it is shaped The Transition Model

  20. Purpose: Answer the Key Question For all those aspects of life that this community needs to sustain itself and thrive, how do we: • dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in response to climate change); • significantly increase resilience (in response to peak oil); • radically strengthen our local economy (in response to economic instability)?

  21. The 4 Recognitions • Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise • We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks • We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now • By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present. Photos: (top) Transition Whatcom feet! (centre) Transition Sandpoint’s Great Unleashing (bottom) Sonya Wallace and Janet Millington, Transition Sunshine Coast EDAP

  22. The Goal: Resilience • LOCALIZATION • From global > local • AUTONOMY • From centralized > discrete and connected • From consumption > self-reliance • COMMUNITY • From individual > collective • ENERGY STEWARDSHIP • From depletion > stewardship • From growth > steady state (re-use, repair, borrow, grow, make, share) Photos: (top) TT Totnes event, (centre) Hands in the dirt Transition Whatcom activity for the Perennial Project, (bottom) Transition Town Ashland Celebration Parade

  23. Unique Qualities • Open Source • Self organising • Solutions focused • Iterative • Sensitive to place and scale • Historic • Joyful Photo: Brixton Pound, Local Currency, Transition Town Brixton, UK

  24. How it is fueled The Transition ECONOMY

  25. Transition Economy • New LOCAL Industries and Businesses: • Renewable energy • Sustainable agriculture • Local manufacturing • Active transportation and renewable transport • Swap & Share, Re-purpose, Repair, Salvage • Community-owned finance • Greening business and green business launch consulting • Retrofit home construction • Sustainable waste management • Re-skilling for local needs gaps Photo: courtesy TransitionUS flickr album

  26. The Business Opportunity… • Transitioning Existing Businesses • Lean & green audits (low carbon & low emissions) • Funding recommendations • ROI projections • Implementation consulting • Energy security risk management consulting • Carbon offsets (cap & trade) • Launching Energy-Transition Businesses • Operates on low-carbon / no-carbon / natural resource-neutral • Offers a low-carbon / no-carbon product or service • Creates a low-carbon / no-carbon supply chain in client business • Designs localization of business models • Integrates business proposition into local community resilience plan Any product or service that helps individuals or businesses transition away from fossil fuels and promotes their self-sufficiency. Photo: UK Publication profiling Low Carbon Start-Ups

  27. The New EntrepreneursAndrew Heintzman “Measured on the basis of green innovation and capital investment, Canada is falling behind.” However... “Canada still has the time and the potential to define a strategy for our companies and our economy to be leaders in green innovation. Our entrepreneurs are already pointing the way. Now we must follow their lead.” The New Entrepreneurs: Building a Green Economy for the Future

  28. How it is organized The Transition Steps

  29. The 12 Steps • Form an Initiating Group • Raise awareness • Lay the foundations • Organize a Great Unleashing • Form working groups • Use Open Space • Develop visible practical manifestations • Facilitate the Great Re-Skilling • Build bridges with local government • Honour the Elders • Let it go where it wants to go • Create an Energy Descent Plan Photos: (top) David Johnson presenting at Vancouver T4T, BC, (centre) Ann Arbor, MI T4T, (bottom) Transition Sebastopol, CA film night

  30. Form Working Groups Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul (& the psychology of change) / Health and Wellness/ Housing / Education / Transport / Arts / Local Economy / Meaningful Work / Urban Design / Business / Green Building Transition Milwaukee meeting, 2009

  31. What are the Groups up to? Common Projects • loads of awareness raising talks, movies, discussions • Skills sharing • seed sharing • local food directories • local currencies • oral history archives • planting fruit trees • starting up locally owned renewable energy companies • garden share schemes • energy saving advice for the community • central buying of trees for “city orchards” • Sustainable fishing • Fix-it and mending courses • loads of re-skilling events, eg. Dr Bike, composting toilets, reedbeds • working with local schools • cutting out plastic bags and holding workshops on how to make fabric ones out of scraps • getting sustainability books into their libraries • car share schemes • community supported agriculture schemes • guerilla gardening • permaculture courses • Peterborough Town Crier

  32. The 12 Steps • Form an Initiating Group • Raise awareness • Lay the foundations • Organize a Great Unleashing • Form working groups • Use Open Space • Develop visible practical manifestations • Facilitate the Great Re-Skilling • Build bridges with local government • Honour the Elders • Let it go where it wants to go • Create an Energy Descent Plan Photos: (top) David Johnson presenting at Vancouver T4T, BC, (centre) Ann Arbor, MI T4T, (bottom) Transition Sebastopol, CA film night

  33. How it is measured What Does Transition Success Look Like?

  34. Resilience Indicators • Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced within a given radius • Ratio of car parking space to productive land use • Degree of engagement in practical re-localization work by local community • Proportion of the community employed locally • Number of businesses owned by local people • Percentage of local trade carried out in local currency • Amount of traffic on local roads • Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given radius • Percentage of local building materials used in new housing developments • Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given degree of basic competency • Percentage of medicines prescribed that have been produced within a given radius

  35. Cheerful Disclaimer We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale. What we are convinced of is this: • If we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late • If we act as individuals, it'll be too little • But if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.

  36. Next steps - LEARN 1. Read the Handbook 2. Training for Transition (T4T) www.transitionnetwork.org/about/training 3. Surf the Transition Network • www.transitionyorkregion.org • www.transitionnetwork.org • Peterborough, Guelph, Barrie, Dundas, Victoria Photo: Transition Town Totnes community garden share

  37. Next steps – STAY CONNECTED • Join our Mailing List • Join our Website (NING network) • Join our Facebook Group www.transitionyorkregion.org info@transitionyorkregion.org Photo: Transition Town Totnes Graveyard Orchard, community garden share

  38. Next steps – GET INVOLVED • Form or join a Working Group • Talk to us and then go for it! • Next Events • Oct 18th, 8am-4pm – Green Business Exhibition, Earth Rangers • Nov 11th, 7pm-9pm – Guest Speaker Mike Nickerson, Aurora • Nov 25th, 7pm-9pm – In Transition 1.0 Film Screening, Vaughan Photo: Transition Town Totnes Graveyard Orchard, community garden share

  39. Questions and Discussion

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