Kazakh banking system: Learning the grammar of global crisis

1. Kazakh banking system: Learning the grammar of global crisis 1

2. Past Simple Tense 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Loans 4,208 5,949 8,725 14,543 24,875 47,213 73,351 Deposits 4,008 5,934 8,106 9,861 13,967 26,492 32,652 Banking penetration Loans and deposits/GDP, 2007 (% and USDm) (%) Loans and deposits/GDP, 2007 Comments • One of the most developed in a peer group of emerging European countries • Assets/GDP ratio tripling in a span of five years only • The most penetrated banking sector with a 71% loan/GDP ratio • Comparably low 42% deposit*/GDP ratio means there is a still lots of cash “stashed away under mattresses” • Aggressive targets for deposit gathering • Credit ratings upgrade • Public offerings and listing at LSE Source: NBK, EIU Source: EIU, local central banks, FMSA Note: Represents loans and deposits to individuals and non-financial corporations Deposit s include SPV’s deposits

3. January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 RoAA 2.47 2.52 2.21 2.23 2.08 1.83 1.64 RoAE 21.62 22.13 19.6 18.96 17.81 15.77 13.74 Present (Not) Simple Tense Deposit, loan portfolios / GDP over last year Banking assets / GDP over last year (%) Comments Profitability over last year • August 2007/July 2008 – decrease of banking assets / GDP, loans / GDP, deposits / GDP ratios with trend to flatten on the back of GDP decrease and slight assets increase • Profitability indicators decreased all over the sector • Huge amount of foreign debt to be paid and limited access to international capital markets caused by liquidity squeeze • 3% decrease in external liabilities for the period January – July 2008 • Downgrades of sovereign and individual credit ratings Source: National Bank

4. Present Continuous Tense Actions by authorities: • FMSA has strongly recommended banks to limit their foreign borrowings • NBK has offered short-term stand-by credit lines vs. banks’ reserve requirements • Government has pledged $ 1 bn in December and further $ 3 bn in 2008 to help finance the following sectors: • SMEs; • Mortgages (by capitalizing Kazakh State Mortgage Company to refinance bank’s mortgage portfolios) • Infrastructure and import substitution (by refinancing through Kazyna Fund or DBK) • Construction (by refinancing through Kazyna Fund or DBK) • Distressed Assets Funds – private andstate • Working Group under Ministry of Finance in Kazakhstan assigned for collaboration with IFI’s Actions by banks: • Conservative approach to asset&liability management • Limited access to global capital markets in order to diminish the dependence from foreign markets • Liquidity management - Liquid assets to remain at 20-25% of the total assets • Switch from asset growth stage to quality development: • Better understanding of concern as assets quality worsening • Risk-management adjusted to current market conditions • Slowdown in real estate/construction lending or cautious mortgage, real estate/construction lending • Proactive work with rating agencies on understanding the current performance of the banks

5. Future Continuous Tense Lessons of crisis • Liquidity management • Asset quality and risk management in high priority • Emphasis on local funding sources • Development of local interbank operations • Maintain level of capitalisation Positive factors: Government and shareholders support Still high oil&gas prices Assets restructuring Local currency stabilisation to maintain confidence of population As expected for YE 2008: GDP about USD 132 bn Banking assets/GDP ratio about 80% Loans/GDP ratio about 57% Deposits/GDP Ratio about 45% RoAA about 1% RoAE about 7% + For long – term period: Strong quality and diversified asset performance for whole banking sector Well developed local funding sources Stable moderate profitability growth Stable levels of credit ratings Strong confidence from the Government, shareholders, investors and population

6. Thank you for attention!