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Looking Back Looking Forward Local Wellington Communities in Transition 1981 - 2031

Looking Back Looking Forward Local Wellington Communities in Transition 1981 - 2031. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Backbencher, Wellington 18 th -November 2013. L ocal Wellington Communities in the Wellington Region – past and future.

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Looking Back Looking Forward Local Wellington Communities in Transition 1981 - 2031

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  1. Looking Back Looking ForwardLocal Wellington Communities in Transition1981 - 2031 James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Backbencher, Wellington 18th-November 2013

  2. Local Wellington Communities in the Wellington Region – past and future • 2013 census counts – summary • Local differences in the growth rate of lower primary age children (by school location) • Recent trends in ethnic composition in the school age population • School enrolment communities with high proportions of specific ethnic groups • Historical and projected changes in age composition and distribution

  3. Human Settlements : Population, Economy and Environment.. overlapping and interconnected • Community – Society • Population (age comp), households, residential land use, labour supply • Economy – Industry – jobs • Enterprises, jobs, industrial land use, labour demand • Environment • Land, water, soil, ecosystems • Residential and industrial use of land, water, inputs and outputs

  4. 2013 Census Counts – some observations

  5. 2013 Census counts - summary

  6. Some of the “Communities” showing highest population grth 2006-2013

  7. Some of the “Communities” showing low population grth 2006-2013 Perhaps the reduced occupancy rate of “Housing Corporation” dwellings is one factor?

  8. School Enrolments – an indicator of population change

  9. School Rolls 5-10 yrolds(Lower Primary School Age Range)

  10. Change in 5-10 yr old school enrolments by Schl Location Cmmty

  11. School Enrolments – and changing ethnic composition

  12. Changing 5-10 yr old School Enrolments byEthnic Composition

  13. School Enrolments – and ethnic communities / concentration

  14. High % 5-10 yr old Indian, Chinese School Enrolments by Cmmty

  15. High % 5-10 yr old Oth European, SE Asian School Enrolments by Cmmty

  16. High % 5-10 yr old NZ Maori , Samoan School Enrolments by Cmmty

  17. WgtnRgn Overall Dependency Ratios (LT 15 yrs plus 65 plus as ratio of 15-64 yr olds)

  18. WgtnRgn Child Dependency Ratios (under 15 yr olds as ratio of 15-64 yr olds)

  19. WgtnRgn Aged Dependency Ratios (65 yrs or over as ratio of 15-64 yr olds)

  20. WgtnTLAs Child Dependency Ratios (under 15 yr olds as ratio of 15-64 yr olds)

  21. Wgtn TLAs Child Dependency Ratios (under 15 yr olds as ratio of 15-64 yr olds)

  22. Wgtn TLAs Aged Dependency Ratios (65 yrs or over as ratio of 15-64 yr olds)

  23. % aged 85 plus in 1981

  24. % aged 85 plus in 2006

  25. % aged 85 plus in 2031

  26. Spatial dynamics … • There are localised areas of recent high growth and low growth in population within the modest and stable population growth rate of the region .. • The ethnic mix of the region has been changing gradually over time • There is a degree of spatial concentration of some ethnic communities – Maori, Chinese, Indian, Samoan …

  27. Changing age composition … • The proportion of the Wellington regional population over 65 is projected to double over the 2011 to 2031.. • The child dependency ratio has decreased by a third between 1981 and 2006 and is projected to continue to decrease • As a result, the increase in the overall dependency ratio is less than that for the aged dependency ratio

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