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With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University)

Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research. Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisions Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10 th September 2013. With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University)

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With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University)

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  1. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisionsUrban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013 With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University) Mark McCarthy (Met Office) Mike Batty (UCL) richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk

  2. Challenge: Adaptation of cities and infrastructure to global change • Socio-economic change • Growing global population • Changing demography • Socio-economic trends • Ownership and governance • Urbanization • Concentrates infrastructure • Implications for external ‘support’ infrastructure • Environmental pressures • Climate change • Broader sustainability tradeoffs • Relationship with land use • Deterioration and replacement

  3. Some complicities and tradeoffs Adapted from: Dawson (2011) Potential pitfalls on the pathway to sustainable cities…and how to avoid them, Carbon Management,Vol 2(2)

  4. Socio-economic scenarios • City-scale climate scenarios • Temperature • Precipitation • Sea level rise • Storm surge Regional economy • Dynamic resource interactions between sectors • Specialist energy sector module Climate impacts and adaptation Greenhouse gas emissions • Multi-sectoral emissions accounting • Detailed sub-modules for transport (personal and freight) • Analysis of city-scale energy policies Land use Transport Model • Analyse risks of • Flooding • Drought • Urban heat • Test adaptation options • Employment • Multi-modal transport • Developed land cover • Population • Planning constraints and attractors Testing of policy options Working with key London stakeholders

  5. Climate vs. Socio-economic change: Flood risk Baseline 2100 Eastern axis 2100 2005 Centralisation 2100 Sub-urbanisation 2100

  6. Socio-economic vs. Climate changeFlood risk for different land use change

  7. Socio-economic vs. Climate changeAttribution of flood risk

  8. Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change

  9. Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change - 34% (annually incremented) by 2100 (mid-point of sustainable homes code) +300,000 Ml from 2020 +300 Ml/day from 2020 - 40% (annually incremented) by 2100

  10. Drought risk: Potential mitigation tradeoff Energy consumption 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 Carbon Dioxide (Mt/year)

  11. Land use: Adaptation vs. Mitigation Average currentheat emissions

  12. Land use pressures

  13. Tough decisions

  14. Transformation of urban systems to be climate sensitive will require • Motivation and leadership • Much improved understanding of the mechanisms of interaction in urban function, via: • Land use • Transport • Resource flows (energy, water, nutrients) • Building form and function • Urban climate • Information networks • Recognition of the time scales of change and the legacy of past decisions (planning, infrastructure, buildings) • Develop collective understanding of urban function and collaborative platforms for exploration of transition strategies

  15. Can IA information improve the urban experience? “We have come to recognise how integrated modelling of the type delivered by the Tyndall Centre Cities programme can help to bring different stakeholders together to develop common understanding of processes and consequences of long term change. That collective understanding is essential if we are to manage change rather than become its victims.” Alex Nickson, Strategy manager: climatechange adaptation and water, Greater London Authority http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser/researchprogramme/outputs/ richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk

  16. Challenges for using IA information to improve the urban experience? • How far is far enough in tracking down consistency, interactions and feedbacks? • How should we estimate and communicate uncertainties? • Can we transfer IA insights and methods to other cities worldwide? • How can IA information flows be best exploited by organisations and individuals? • How can we build a global coalition of researchers and practitioners equipped to address these problems?

  17. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisionsUrban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013 With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University) Mark McCarthy (Met Office) Mike Batty (UCL) richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk

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