1 / 29

Presented by:

Understanding the 2008 Elections. Presented by:. Patrick Lanne • Partner. The Political Environment. Heading into the election, Republicans faced a very difficult political environment with all the key national barometers in the dumps. National. 20%. 75%. Right Direction. /. Wrong Track.

eros
Download Presentation

Presented by:

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Understanding the 2008 Elections Presented by: Patrick Lanne • Partner

  2. The Political Environment...

  3. Heading into the election, Republicans faced a very difficult political environment with all the key national barometers in the dumps. National 20% 75% Right Direction / Wrong Track Presidential Job Approval 27% 71% Approve / Disapprove Generic Ballot 36% 48% Republican / Democrat Republican Party Image 32% 48% Favorable / Unfavorable Data From National Exit Polls

  4. It was a difficult Fall for the McCain campaign. Obama’s image improved, McCain’s stayed flat, and Palin’s fell. Barack Obama: Image John McCain: Image Sarah Palin: Image 56% 52% 48% 47% 46% 44% 44% 43% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 36% 36% 35% 33% Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Sept. 22 Oct. 05 Oct. 20 Sept. 22 Oct. 05 Oct. 20 Sept. 22 Oct. 05 Oct. 20 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Data from a NBC/WSJ national poll of 1,159 Registered Voters conducted October 17-20, 2008

  5. And all data pointed to an Obama win. If the election for President and Vice President were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: John McCain and Sarah Palin, Republicans ...and... Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 51% 50% 46% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO Rasmussen Reuters FOX NBC/WSJ Gallup CBS ABC/WP All data is from the week leading up to the 2008 election

  6. The Results

  7. Early voting spiked and provided Obama with a comfortable margin. Percent Voting Early 2000 2004 56% 54% 50% 50% 49% 49% 45% 43% 33% 24% 18% 18% Kerry Kerry Gore Gore Bush Bush Bush Bush McCain McCain Obama Obama Kerry Kerry Bush Bush 2000 2002 2004 2008 Voted Election Voted Election Early Day Early Day

  8. Leaving few late deciders for a McCain comeback. Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you were going to vote for in the election for President? 67% 59% 52% 51% 36% 28% 17% 17% 9% 6% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Election day/Last few days before the election Before September

  9. While younger voters and first time voters remained consistent with previous elections… 18% 17% 17% 11% 11% 9% 18-29 First yrs old Time Voters 2000 2004 2008

  10. …the racial make-up of the electorate is changing. % Of African American & Hispanic Voters 22% 19% 17% 15% 13% 13% 12% 10% AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  11. Obama’s advantages with these four groups were essential to his big victory. 95% 69% 67% 66% 32% 31% 30% 4% 18-29 African- Hispanics First yrs old Americans Time Voters McCain Obama * National Exit Poll Data

  12. African Americans turned out in record numbers, making Obama their nearly unanimous choice. Presidential Vote Among African Americans -81% -77% -91% 95% 90% 88% 11% 9% 4% Bush Kerry McCain Obama Bush Gore African Americans African Americans African Americans (10%) (11%) (13%) 2000 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  13. Obama’s increased margins among AA’s helped flip Southeastern states. Presidential Vote Among African Americans Virginia North Carolina Florida 96% 95% 92% 87% 86% 85% 14% 13% 12% 8% 5% 4% G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. Afr. Am. Afr. Am. Afr. Am. Afr. Am. Afr. Am. Afr. Am. (21%) (20%) (26%) (23%) (12%) (13%) 2004 2008 2004 2008 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  14. Two-thirds of Hispanics supported Obama. Presidential Vote Among Hispanics -27% -9% -34% 66% 62% 53% 44% 35% 32% Bush Kerry McCain Obama Bush Gore Hispanics Hispanics Hispanics (7%) (6%) (8%) 2000 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  15. His margins made a huge difference in the Southwest. Presidential Vote Among Hispanics Colorado New Mexico Nevada 76% 69% 68% 60% 60% 56% 44% 39% 38% 30% 30% 22% G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic (8%) (19%) (32%) (41%) (10%) (15%) 2004 2008 2004 2008 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  16. As did two-thirds of young voters. Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds -2% -9% -34% 66% 54% 48% 46% 45% 32% Bush Kerry McCain Obama Bush Gore 18-29 Years 18-29 Years 18-29 Years (17%) (17%) (18%) 2000 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  17. The Southeast – Obama significantly increased his margins among young voters. Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds Virginia North Carolina Florida 74% 61% 60% 58% 56% 54% 46% 43% 41% 39% 37% 26% G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. 18-29 Yrs 18-29 Yrs 18-29 Yrs 18-29 Yrs 18-29 Yrs 18-29 Yrs (17%) (21%) (14%) (18%) (17%) (15%) 2004 2008 2004 2008 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  18. And, Obama overwhelmingly won with first-time voters. Presidential Vote Among First-Time Voters -9% -7% -37% 68% 53% 52% 46% 43% 31% Bush Kerry McCain Obama Bush Gore First-Time Voters First-Time Voters First-Time Voters (9%) (11%) (11%) 2000 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  19. +7% Dem +10% Dem GOP erosion complicated the electoral math. Party Identification Figures POS’ National Merge Data 44% 43% 43% 41% 41% DEM GOP 38% 38% 40% 37% 37% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 NBC/WSJ National Data 47% 45% 43% 43% 40% DEM 36% GOP 35% 38% 34% 35% March Late October March March November 2004 2006 2007 2008 2008

  20. The Democratic advantage at the polls was unprecedented in recent years. Party ID -2% -3% -5% -4% -0- -7% 40% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 37% 35% 35% 35% 35% 32% GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Data from CNN Exit Polls

  21. 2004 2008 2004 2008 State Party ID Party ID Result Result (GOP-Dem) (GOP-Dem) CO Bush Obama 11 1 FL Bush Obama 4 -3 IN Bush Obama 14 5 IA Kerry Obama 2 -1 MI Kerry Obama -5 -12 MN Kerry Obama -3 -4 MO Bush McCain 1 -6 MT Bush McCain 7 0 NV Bush Obama 4 -8 NH Kerry Obama 7 -2 NM Bush Obama -7 -16 NC Bush Obama 1 -11 OH Bush Obama 5 -8 PA Kerry Obama -2 -7 VA Bush Obama 4 -6 WV Bush McCain -18 -14 WI Kerry Obama 3 -6 There were big swings in the battleground states.

  22. Red states turned blue. 2008 Pres. Results 2004 Pres. Results

  23. Both sides consolidated their partisans.

  24. Obama won the middle by a very wide margin. Among Moderates Among Independents 60% 54% 52% 49% 48% 45% 44% 39% Ind Ind Mod Mod Bush/McCain Kerry/Obama * National Exit Poll Data

  25. Looking Forward

  26. A new “progressive” era? Not exactly… this is still a center-right country.

  27. Let’s remember what’s this race was really about.

  28. Looking to 2010…pay attention to Obama’s approval rating. President's Party Performance Job Approval Avg. Loss 60+ 0 50-59 -12 Under 50 -41 Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1962 (Gallup/POS Polls & National Journal) 74% 66% 63% 63% 58% 57% 52% 49% 47% 46% 43% 42% 5 5 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 2006 1998 2002 -4 -8 -8 -12 -15 -26 -30 -47 -48 -52

  29. Patrick Lanne Partner • patrick@pos.org For more information, please contact us at: 8 Thistle Rd Gansevoort, NY 12831 Phone: (518) 581-7319 • Cell: (703) 785-7627

More Related