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Quantifying natural and technological disaster impact Methodology and applications

Quantifying natural and technological disaster impact Methodology and applications. Femke Vos. CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium. 2 July 2009 – Copenhagen. Overview. Research framework at CRED EM-DAT database Global and European disaster statistics MICRODIS

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Quantifying natural and technological disaster impact Methodology and applications

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  1. Quantifyingnatural andtechnologicaldisaster impactMethodology and applications Femke Vos CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium 2 July 2009 – Copenhagen

  2. Overview Research framework at CRED EM-DAT database Global and Europeandisasterstatistics MICRODIS Priorities in research Ongoingactivities and future projects

  3. CRED Natural Disaster Research Civil Conflict Research Database and information support (e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT) Training and Capacity Building (e.g. APHES Summer Course)

  4. What is EM-DAT? • Emergency Events Database, created in 1988 • Project funded by OFDA/USAID • Occurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural and • technological disasters from 1900 until present • Objective: • Provide evidence-base to humanitarian and • development actors at national and international levels: • scientific research with a development agenda

  5. EM-DAT • Transparent conventions regarding data sources and internalprotocol • Standard data templates • Global and coherent data

  6. EM-DAT standard data template Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  7. Natural disasters in EM-DAT1950-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  8. Natural disasters in EM-DAT1950-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase Al Gore quote: “Human-driven climate change is creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented” Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/gore-pulls-slide-of-disaster-trends/?ref=science

  9. Where do disasters occur & how often? 1989-2008 • Human impact essentiallyconcentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affected • Europe and Africa report a similarnumber of disasters • Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$ • Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$

  10. Disaster distribution by region1989- 2008 Number of disasterevents by region (%) Disastermortality by region (%) Economic damage costs by region (%) Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  11. Disasters in Europe:Whatkindsoccurmostfrequently? Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  12. Natural disasters in Europe:shares of the pie 1989-2008 • Floods and storms are the major sources of natural perils • Drought affected the largest number of people * Includes dry mass movements ** Includes wet mass movements

  13. Technologicaldisaster distributionin Europe Number of disasters Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  14. Number of technologicaldisasters in Europe 1989-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  15. WHAT IS MICRODIS? A multidisciplinary consortium dedicated to a common goal MICRODIS focuses on the micro level of disasters. Health, Social and Economic impacts have been recognized as the key thematic areas in understanding extreme events and their relation to human populations. Health Impacts Group Integration Group Economic Impacts Group Social Impacts Group

  16. Key characteristics of MICRODIS • 16 field studies within a coordinated framework of analysis • yield16 primary data-sets fromdisaster-affected populations on-site • outputs: • standard methods to measure impacts in human populations • 16 comparable datasets for analysis

  17. Priority:Data for monitoring progress What do weneed: Standardizeddefinitions Inclusion criteria Standard data templates Whatcanbedone: Establishbaselines Monitoring Comparabilityacrossspace and time

  18. Priority:Humanhealth and acuteclimateevents How do acute climateevents affect the environment and ecology, leading to changes in disease transmission patterns?

  19. Ongoingactivities and potential collaborations at CRED • CEHAPIS – WHO – EC • Assessmenttools for climate change-relatedhealth impacts • Research on climatesignals in disaster data • In collaboration with NOAA • Natural disasterresearch program • Human impact of naturaldisasters • MICRODIS & similarfieldstudies in Europe • Spatial analysis of EM-DAT data

  20. THANK YOU … • CONTACT • CRED • 30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs • 1200 Brussels – Belgium • Tel: +32-2-764-3327/Fax-3441 • E-Mail: Debarati.Guha@uclouvain.be • www.cred.be

  21. Ranking Europe disasters and their impact Top 10 countries in 1989-2008 Incidence Victims Econ damage‏ Russia Spain Italy France Russia Germany Romania Albania United Kingdom Italy France France United Kingdom Moldova Rep Spain Germany Ukraine Greece Spain Macedonia FRY Switzerland Greece United Kingdom Soviet Union Bulgaria Lithuania Denmark Austria Germany Austria Highest 120 (Russia) 6,044,944 (Spain)‏ 34 US$ Billion (Italy)‏ Lowest 28 (Austria)‏ 578,699 (Germany)‏ 4 US$ Billion (Austria)‏ • High concentration in few countries (France, Spain, Germany)‏ • Russia most hit (wide geographical area)‏ • Italy the worst hit in terms of economic damages

  22. Natural disaster types Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) & MunichRe, 2009: “Disaster Category Classification for Operational Databases - Common Accord”, June (unpublished)

  23. Number of technologicaldisasters1960-2008 Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase

  24. Technological disaster types

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