Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society January 19, 2008

1. Climate Services Dr. Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological SocietyJanuary 19, 2008

2. Outline • Society’s Demand for Climate Services • Background of Climate Services • Legislative Response to Emerging Demand • NOAA’s Current Capabilities • NOAA’s Strategy • Enterprise Model Example: NIDIS

3. Record Breaking Season2007 Utah largest fire in history Driest rainy season in Southern California Phoenix 32 days above 110° Mountain Pine Bark Beetles Record high and max low temps in Missoula. MT Arctic Sea Ice Cover Shatters all Previous Record Lows

4. The Social and Economic Context for Change……is changing Increased Vulnerability • 9 billion people by 2050 (50% increase) • Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4 billion new city dwellers, aging populations, overdevelopment in coastal regions, and regions with limited water supply • Income inequality growing within nations and between nations

5. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had a Profound Impact “There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.” WG1 SPM

6. August 2007 “In general, resource managers lack specific guidance for incorporating climate change into their management actions and planning efforts. Without such guidance, their ability to address climate change and effectively manage resources is constrained.”

7. NOAA Data and Information for a Changing Climate: A Conference for Public and Private Sector Users* Conference Goal: Determining user needs for climate data and information in a changing climate. Sectors Addressed: • Energy • Insurance • Transportation Key Outcome Questions: • What are the concerns of these industries? • What are their data and information needs today and for the future? *Conference held November 5-6, 2007, The Grove Park Inn, Asheville, NC

8. Shared Concerns and Information Needs: Energy, Insurance, and Transportation Sectors • Shared concerns: • Vulnerability of societal infrastructure to… • Sea-level rise and coastal inundation • Extreme events: Changes in frequency, intensity, and probability • Prolonged extreme conditions (e.g., drought) Shared information needs: • Continued and sustained dialogue to ensure… • More accurate information at regional/local scales • Higher spatial and temporal data resolutions • Better understanding of changing hazards, consequences, assets,andresilience

9. Legislative Response to Emerging Demand • S. 2355 - Climate Change Adaptation Act • a national strategic plan for climate change adaptation • regional assessments of the vulnerability of coastal and ocean areas and resources to hazards associated with climate change, climate variability, and ocean acidification. • S. 2307 - Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007 • establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA.

10. NOAA’s Climate Mission Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond • OUTCOMES • A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions • Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions

11. A Strategy for the Development of Climate Services Advance predictive understanding and skill about the future state of the climate Understand the past and current state of the climate Develop climate information services Assess evolving information needs and the context

12. Understand the Past and Current State of the Climate • Climate System Observations • Ocean • Atmosphere • Arctic • Carbon • Data Management and Information • NOAA’s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System • State of the Climate Report • Climatological Statistics and • Summaries

13. Advance Predictive Understanding and Skill about the Future State of Climate • Understanding Climate Processes - • NOAA’s Research Laboratories, • Centers, and Cooperative • Institutes • Competitive Grants • Earth System Modeling, • Predictions, and Projections - • GFDL and NCEP coupled climate models • Earth system model development • Analysis and Attribution - • Reanalysis • Emerging focus on Integrated Earth System Analysis and attribution GFDL MODEL Capturing the global distribution of the short-lived Aerosols spreading out from the source regions

14. Assessing Evolving User Needs and Context • Assessing Climate, Impacts and • Adaptation - • Global, national, regional, sectoral assessments of • vulnerability, impacts and • adaptation • Climate Services Development • and Delivery - • National Integrated Drought • Information System (NIDIS) • Emerging foci on Coasts, Arctic, Fisheries,… • Regional • International Also 122 WFOs 15 WSOs 13 RFCs ~50 State Climatologists

15. Need for Integrated Climate Services “Whatever approach is chosen, it must be able to create a national framework that will encourage an intimate connection between research, operations, and the support of decision making. Specific responsibility and resources must be assigned to the integration of multiple-agency programs.” The Science of Regional and Global Change: Putting Knowledge to Work NRC, 2001

16. National Integrated Drought Information System A result of requests by the Western Governors Association and the NIDIS act of 2006 • NIDIS is an example of a national effort led by NOAA to coordinate across federal agencies the monitoring, data, and models needed to provide: • Ongoing information on current and future drought conditions across the nation And • Region specific products for drought management, planning and adaptation, and education and outreach tools

17. Lessons from NIDIS - Enterprise solution- Regional implementation of a drought early warning system – The plan for NIDIS Pilots 1

18. Thank you! Comments or Questions?

19. BACKUP

20. Specific Concerns and Information Needs: ENERGY SECTOR • Concerns: • Bridging the gap between science and industry (translators) • Industry does not know the scope of data availability • Delineation of public versus proprietary information resources • Immature link to water, food/agriculture, and health interests Information needs: • Climate data to support long-term planning (40-60 years) • Identification of adaptation measures necessary in a changing climate • Balance of data versus derived products (data interpretation) • Characterization of uncertainty in data quality

21. Specific Concerns and Information Needs: INSURANCE SECTOR • Concerns: • Understanding/building resilience • Predicting/assessing risk (e.g., changing demographics in addition to physical hazards) • Limited public awareness Information needs: • Measurement standardization (e.g., wind speed, gusts, instrument exposure) • Data capture reliability under extreme conditions • Data provenance: tagging observed versus inferred data • Integration of data from diverse sources • Characterization of uncertainty in data quality

22. Specific Concerns and Information Needs: TRANSPORTATION SECTOR • Concerns: • Incorporation of climate into scenario planning • Viability of emerging transport corridors (e.g., Northwest passage) • Dealing with mixed winter precipitation • Local and regional downscaling of global/national information Information needs: • Updating risk maps (e.g., FEMA flood maps) • Updating NOAA datasets (e.g., Intl Airport Climate Summary) • Probabilistic (versus deterministic) data • Integrate climate information with transportation-specific strategic planning models

23. Where do we go from here? Extend and Expand the Dialogue: Sector Scoping Papers • Anticipating and Addressing Unprecedented Change: • Historical data necessary but not sufficient • Integration of physical, ecological, social and economic data • Scalability - from global to regional to local (and back) - desirable • Proactive, evolutionary approach — adaptation and mitigation • Tailored data solutions for risk analysis, operations and planning • Enhanced interagency datasetintegration and consistency • Building Connections Based on Community Expertise • Existing corporate commitments • Science agency programs • Public-private partnerships • Corporate and community risk mangement (operations, development, and planning)

24. NOAA’s Current and Emerging Climate Products NOAA’s climate services provide data and information products for a variety of users. Climate Services are the timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to users, including decision makers. Product is a general term for tangible results, technology, or information that have potential value in one or more uses.

25. Climate Services NRC Definition of Climate Services (2001): “the timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers” NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy A comprehensive system that: • Monitors, collects and integrates Information on the key indicators of climate and develops credible, usable, accessible and timely assessments and predictions of climate, • Assesses climate trends, conditions, projections and impacts • Works with user communities to develop and transfer information into planning and decision-making.