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Development of an Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System: Current Efforts and Future Plans

Development of an Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System: Current Efforts and Future Plans. Jacob Carley ab , Eric Rogers b , Shun Liu ab , Xiaoyan Zhang bc , Brad Ferrier ab , Eric Aligo ab , Matthew Pyle b , and Geoff DiMego b a IMSG, b NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC , c ESSIC jacob.carley@noaa.gov. 1.

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Development of an Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System: Current Efforts and Future Plans

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  1. Development of an Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System: Current Efforts and Future Plans Jacob Carleyab, Eric Rogersb, Shun Liuab, Xiaoyan Zhangbc, Brad Ferrierab, Eric Aligoab, Matthew Pyleb, and Geoff DiMegob aIMSG, bNOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC,cESSIC jacob.carley@noaa.gov 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 1

  2. Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System • NAM – North American Mesoscale forecast system • Runs 4x daily at 00, 06, 12, 18Z • Short-range mesoscale NWP system for the U.S. which provides guidance to day 3.5 • NAMRR: NAM Rapid Refresh • Hourly updates • Future North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble system (NARRE) • NAMRR + RAP/HRRR Foundation • Development of hourlyNAM cycling capabilities on NOAA R&D machine Zeus • Part of DOE-funded wind energy projects • WFIP/POWER • Cycling 12 km NAM and 4 (3) km CONUS nest • Hybrid ensemble-3DVar via Global Data Assimilaion System’s EnKF members • Cloud analysis and diabatic digital filter initialization with radar-derived temperature tendencies 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  3. NAMRR Overview Current, example, NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) configuration for a single, arbitrary cycle: Example NAMRR configuration for 12, hourly cycles: Both systems assimilate a wide range of conventional (e.g. surface, profiler, mesonets, Doppler radar radial velocities, etc.) and satellite observations (e.g. radiances) 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  4. NAMRR: Configuration (still testing) *Using 80 EnKF members from the Global DA Systems 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  5. June 29-30, 2012 Derecho - NAMRR Test 4 Hour Forecast valid 22 UTC Poor 4 hour forecast from Ops NAM 4 km CONUSnest Obs Ops 4km Much improved 4 hour forecast from NAMRR 4 km CONUSnest Prelim. Storm Reports from SPC (06/29/2012) NAMRR 4km NAMRR 3km Additional improvement with NAMRR 3 km CONUSnest 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  6. June 29-30, 2012 Derecho - 27 Hr Forecast NAMRR Test with 3 km CONUSnest Significant improvement at longer lead times with 3 km NAMRR relative to Ops 4 km Ops NAM CONUSnest Fhr=27 3 km NAMRR CONUSnest Fhr=27 Observations 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  7. Impact of Cloud Analysis on 4 km CONUSnest Reflectivity Forecasts Verification over CONUS for 2012 Derecho short-term forecasts (dBZ >= 30) ETS Red = 4 km NAMRR CONUSnest withoutcloud analysis F01 F12 Blue = 4 km NAMRR CONUSnest withcloud analysis Bias Cloud Analysis Stats from 30 hourly forecast cycles. • Lines falling outside the rectangles are significant at the p=0.05 level F01 F12 CTL Perfect frequency bias 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  8. NAMRR Testing of Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics 3 km CONUSNEST forecast column max radar reflectivity from the 20120628 12Z cycle using the repository microphysics (top) and the Ferrier-Aligo microphysics (bottom). On grid 227 (5 km). Obs FCST NMMB Repository Ferrier Microphysics Increased number of forecast reflectivity values >= 50 dBZ. More consistent with observations. Updated Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics tested in NAMRR NAMRR is playing a role in current physics development. 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  9. May 20th, 2013 OK Severe Weather Event Ops 4km NAMRR 3km Obs Fhr = 03 Valid 21Z Fhr = 16 Valid 22Z 5 km grid 5 km grid NAMRR Nest Perfect frequency bias Ops NAM Nest ETS Bias 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  10. Ongoing and Future Work • Near Term • NAMRR retrospective tests for comparison with upcoming NAM bundle • Optimization (always improving) • Long(er) Term • Extend NAMRR from 2 to all 6 operational NAM domains • Initial evaluations of NARRE+HRRRE TL (RAP/HRRR +NAMRR/NESTs) • Test + evaluate in collaborative R2O settings? • WPC-HMT Flash Flood and Winter Weather Experiments, SPC Spring Experiment? • Planned for WCOSS Phase II (Petaflop): 2016-2018? • Hybrid 4DEnVar Example of the direct assimilation of Doppler velocity and radar reflectivity via the GSI into a 1.33 km version of the NMMB. The figure compares observed column max reflectivity to a case of no assimilation (CTL), 3DVar, and various hybrid ensemble-3Dvar (Hyb) configurations during 1 hour of assimilating obs at 5 minute intervals (from J. Carley’s PhD dissertation). 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  11. May 20th, 2013 OK Severe Weather – 1.33 kmHiRes Nest Experiment * Thanks to Eric Aligo for providing this run 14Z Cycle 14Z Cycle Obs HRRRE WoF NEST LOCATIONS FOR NEXT CYCLES • Where *might* WoF fit? • A locatable, on-demand, high-resolution set of nested ensemble members all featuring DA cycles • Adopt techniques and lessons learned from the WoF community! • Already doing something like this in Ops NAM with FireWX Nest (No DA, single member) • ***Just an idea – but good to think about these things as we all progress*** Max Hourly Updraft Helicity + Storm Reports Column-Max dBZ Obs Column-Max dBZ 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  12. Extra Slides 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  13. Convective Initiation: 3km NAMRR CONUSnest: 2013-08-15 @ 2200 UTC SPC MESO DISCUSSION #1709: ...ASCENT INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT ENTERS THE ERN PART OF THE MCD AREA FROM SERN KS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIMITED DEEP SHEAR PER VWP DATA WILL KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY DISORGANIZED OBS F10 F09 F08 F07 F06 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  14. POWER:Position of Offshore Wind Energy Resources • Collaborative effort with DOE, ESRL/GSD, and ESRL/PSD • Provide information about observation networks needed to support offshore wind energy development • Data denial experiments • Summer 2004 New England Air Quality Study deployed ~13 coastal wind profilers and one shipborne Doppler lidar in the New England area • POWER uses these pre-existing coastal profiler observations in a set of data-denial experiments with the NAMRR and RAP/HRRR systems • Shipborne lidar is used for verification • Two periods of study • July 10th-17th, 2004 • August 6th-12th, 2004 NOAA Ron Brown ship tracks (August, 2004) 08/06 08/07 08/08 08/09 08/10 08/11 NOAA Ron Brown http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/technology/vessels/ronbrown/ronbrown.html Courtesy of Yelena Pichugina 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

  15. August 6th-12th, 2004:0-2km AGL vs. POWER profilers CTL CTL NAMRRX CTL: No Extra profilerassim. • EXP: Extra profiler assim. RAPX EXP EXP NAMRRX+RAPX RMSE Parent RMSE 4 km CONUSNEST RMSE Forecast Hour Forecast Hour Forecast Hour All assimilated extra profilers in this case All assimilated extra profilers in this case • NAMRR+RAPX vs. NAMRRX vs.RAPX 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop

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