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Risk assessment of nature extreme events in the coastal zone

Risk assessment of nature extreme events in the coastal zone. Dangerous hydrological phenomena in the river mouths and their relation to synoptic situation. N.I.Alekseevsky, D.V.Magritsky, N.M.Yumina, I.N.Krylenko, D.N.Aibulatov, G.S.Ermakova, E.Antohina. D.Gutchina.

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Risk assessment of nature extreme events in the coastal zone

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  1. Risk assessment of nature extreme events in the coastal zone Dangerous hydrological phenomena in the river mouths and their relation to synoptic situation N.I.Alekseevsky, D.V.Magritsky, N.M.Yumina, I.N.Krylenko, D.N.Aibulatov, G.S.Ermakova, E.Antohina D.Gutchina

  2. Environmental - economic zones of coast (EEZC) of the European part of Russia

  3. Structure and impact degree of dangerous processes and phenomena depending on features of EEZC districts

  4. Time scales of dangerous hydrological phenomena (DHP) and hydrology-morphological processes in the river mouths

  5. Linear scales of dangerous hydrological phenomena (DHP) and hydrology-morphological processes in the river mouths

  6. Genetic classification of the dangerous hydrological phenomena

  7. List of hydrological data needed to assess the social and economic damages and risks • Type and coordinates of DHP-occurrence • Intensity of the dangerous hydrological phenomena (for Damage) • Duration of dangerous hydrological events and the residual phenomena (for Damage) • Exposure area SIFVI=(SSI-3)*(Exposure_area*10)*(IDI*10) SIFVI: social and infrastructure Flood Vulrability Index SSI: Social Susceptibility Index IDI: Infrastructure Density Index • Probability (frequency) of dangerous hydrological events of certain intensity RISK=f(Probability, Damage) • Other parameters

  8. Data source for assess and prediction the social and economic damages and risks • The Catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena • Data of hydrological monitoring on stations and from the satellites • Field studies • Statistic, geographic analysis • Computer simulation

  9. The catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena sections 1. Water object code 2. Water object name 3. Chronology of DHP 4. Type of DHP 5. Factors (origin) of DHP 6. A brief description of the dangerous hydrological phenomena and events 7. Parameters of DHP (3 parts) 8. Hydro-meteorological conditions (H, Q, v, t, x) 9. The economic and social damage 10. Data source

  10. The catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena data sources and structure ~760 events: • Inundations– 644 • Low water – 83 • Seawater intrusions – 13 • Others - 20

  11. Comparison of the river mouths on a set and degree of hazard of DHP

  12. The dangerous hydrological phenomena inthe Kubanrivermouth • Water-flowandice-jaminundations • Storm surges • Dangerous ice phenomena • Heavy sea • Low water Chronology of inundations for period 140 yrs. Structure of inundations for period 100 yrs.

  13. Flow-water inundations inthe Kubanriverdelta Precondition Flood-control system Results Spring high water Repeatability of years Hmax>Hcritical I. flood-control reservoirs Q The mean number of days per year Hmax>Hcritical Summer high water 1929-1972 1973-2003 II. flood-control dams Rain and snow-melt floods (autumn-winter) The mean depth of flooding of a flood plain

  14. Ice jams and ice-jam inundations inthe Kubanriverdelta Ice-jam inundation of winter 2001-2002 yr. River reaches of ice-jam formation Frequency of ice jams (1912-2002 yrs.)

  15. Long-term variability of the ice phenomena inthe Kubanriverdelta The period with ice phenomena Cases of Ice jams formation for different periods Ice thickness

  16. Flood zone and propagation length of backwater in the branches Storm surges in the Kuban river mouth Probability curve

  17. The dangerous hydrological phenomena inthe Donrivermouth and their long-term variability

  18. Flood zones The dangerous hydrological phenomena inthe Nevarivermouth and their long-term variability H=200 cm BS • Storm surges (delta) • Underflooding (delta) • Ice-snow jam (deltaside river section) H=500 cm BS

  19. Expedition to the river mouths of Black sea august 2011

  20. Hydraulic models of water stream movement 1.«Flood» and «River» (V.V.Belikov) 2. Mike 11, Mike 21 (Denmark) 3. Delft 3D (Netherlands) 4. «HEC-RAS» (USA) 5. «TELEMAC» (France) Simulation result of flooding of the Terek river delta (model and calculations of V.V.Belikov)

  21. Hydrological models of runoff formation basin model ECOMAG (author - Motovilov Y.G.) input data, structure, results

  22. Results of computer simulation

  23. The forecast of runoff changes Calculation: Climate-driven hydrological model Y = f (T0, P) Result: Runoff changes estimation Input: 12 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models data AOGCMs: CMIP3:CCSM3, CGCM3.1, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MIROC3.2, MRI-CGCM2.3.2А, PCM, IPSL CM4, MIUB ECHO G 1) • Y2050, Y2050max, Y2050min • Maps of Ky=Y2050/Ybas.period • Maps of KCv=Cv2050/Cvbas.period • Probability curves equation proposed by Mezentsev n – empirical coefficient T0 – sum of positive temperature (ºC) 2) resolution:2°×2° basic period: 1961-1990 yrs. forecasting period: 2046-2065 yrs.

  24. The forecast of annual runoff change of the Severnaya Dvina river Minimum value Ky Mean value Ky Maximum value Ky Mean value KCv P,%

  25. The synoptic situations associated to various origin floods

  26. Thank you for your attention!

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