A Reports Card for the Environment

1. A Reports Card for the Environment www.fragilecologies.comccb.colorado.edu mickeyglantz@hotmail.com “1 C, 3 B’s, 1 A and 1 Incomplete” November 11, 2008 Michael Glantz Director, CCB (Consortium for Capacity Building, INSTAAR, CU) McMaster University, Canada

2. Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000

3. Time, tide … and now global warming … wait for no one • These three processes are converging Time, tide and global warming are linked together in a way that threatens all settlements and ecosystems along coastlines worldwide.

4. Global warming: what’s happening now Increasing levels of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc) High rates of tropical deforestation (“Lungs of the Earth?”) Fossil fuel burning implicated Sea level rise Arctic ice melting rapidly Glaciers melting worldwide Warm ecosystems moving upslope Infectious disease vectors shifting poleward

5. No Place to Hide In rich as well as poor countries In industrial and agrarian societies On all continents Where humans and ecosystems meet Especially in vulnerable ecosystems

7. Global warming’s “Tipping points” IPCC 1st to 3rd Assessments IPCC 4th Assessment Inconvenient Truth Nobel Prize

8. The Spotlight has shifted From … WG 1 IPCC SCIENCE • To … • WG 2 IPCC IMPACTS “Impacts Research Seen as New Frontier” Science Magazine (October 10, 2008)

9. Changing role of sciencescience and society • Before the 1970s: “Science for Science” • In 1970s: “Science for the People” • After 2000: “Science with the People” Campaign button considered radical at the time Uppsala Universitet: Field Season 1999  Sharing Science with the People (called stakeholders)

10. No longer just for scientists

11. Politicizing the atmosphere Are we developing a “Law of the Atmosphere”?

12. Climate is not the only thing that is changing 2004 Shanghai Harbor By the Way … Climate is not the only thing that is changing 1988

13. 1 C • Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth (1972) • Model-based trends for … • Industrialization • Population growth • Widespread malnutrition • Depletion of non- renewables • Deteriorating environment

14. 3 B’s • Brandt Commission Report – 1980 • Barney Global 2000 Report – 1980 • Brundtland Commission Report - 1987

15. Barney Report (1980) “This is a massive and important study, in which all relevant U.S. government agencies participated, of world trends in population, natural resources, and the environment. What emerges is a set of global problems of fairly alarming proportions. Serious stresses by the year 2000 are clearly visible in a world more crowded (6.35 billion as compared to 4 billion population in 1975), far more polluted, less stable ecologically, and more vulnerable to disruption. The progressive impoverishment of the world's natural-resource base raises concerns about the earth's capacity to continue to provide for human needs. Because this study is more comprehensive and moderate in tone than many others-such as the Club of Rome's-it may have greater credibility.” (Foreign Affairs book review)

16. Brandt Commission (1980) • Transition from oil-based world economy to sustained renewable energy sources • Link together population, environment, trade, disarmament issues • Cooperate to manage the atmosphere …

17. Study of world trends in … • Population • Natural resources • Environment • Globe seriously stressed by 2000: • More people • More pollution • Less stable ecosystems • More vulnerability • Impoverishment of natural resources Barney Report (1980)

18. Brundtland Commission (1987) • Ensure sustained progress through development, without bankrupting resources of future generations • Link economic growth & sustainable development • Engage corporations in environmental issues

19. 1 A Agenda 21 (1992) • Humanity is at a defining moment in history • Disparity within & between nations • Worsening of … • Poverty, hunger, ill health, illiteracy, ecosystems • Integrate environment & development Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 1992

20. Agenda 21

21. and … 1 Incomplete IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1988- now

22. UN Conferences (1970s) • Conference on the Human Environment – 1972 (Stockholm) • World Food Conference – 1974 (Rome) • World Population Conference – 1974 (Bucharest) • World Water Conference -1976 (Rio del Plata) • World Habitat Conference – 1976 (Vancouver) • Conference on Desertification – 1977 (Nairobi) • Science & Technology Conference – 1979 (Vienna) • First World Climate Conference – 1979 (Geneva)

23. Nevadaenvironmental education for kids

24. The big question is not whether kids can learn, but …

25. SCEP 1970 • Focused on global atmospheric problems • Global problems do not necessarily need global solutions • “In the foreseeable future advanced industrial societies will probably have to carry the major burden of remedial action” Man’s Impact on the Environment Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP) M.I.T. Press

26. SMIC 1971 Inadvertent Climate Modification “We recognize a real problem that a global temperature increase produced by man’s injection of heat and CO2 … may lead to dramatic reduction even elimination of Arctic sea ice.” “This exercise would be fruitless if we did not believe that society would be rational when faced with a set of decisions that could govern the future habitability of our planet.” Report of the Study of Man’s Impact on Climate (SMIC) Edited by SMIC M.I.T. Press

27. The Changing Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security • Called for … • global pact to protect the atmosphere • ‘world atmosphere fund’ financed by tax on fossil fuels used by industrialized countries • 20% cut in 1988 global carbon emissions • “International Law of the Air” Toronto, Canada 27-30 June 1988

28. “LATE LESSONS from EARLY WARNINGS”

29. Concluding Thought “To know the road ahead, ask those coming back” Chinese Proverb

30. Concluding Question Could the 21st century become … The Climate Century?