A Reports Card for the Environment

1. A Reports Card for the Environment www.fragilecologies.comccb.colorado.edu mickeyglantz@hotmail.com “1 C, 3 B’s, 1 A and 1 Incomplete” March12, 2009 Michael Glantz Director, CCB (Consortium for Capacity Building, INSTAAR, CU) McMaster University, Canada

2. Time, tide … and now global warming … wait for no one • These three processes are converging Time, tide and global warming are linked together in a way that threatens all settlements and ecosystems along coastlines worldwide.

3. Global warming: what’s happening now Increasing levels of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc) High rates of tropical deforestation (“Lungs of the Earth?”) Fossil fuel burning implicated Sea level rise Arctic ice melting rapidly Glaciers melting worldwide Warm ecosystems moving upslope Infectious disease vectors shifting poleward

4. No Place to Hide In rich as well as poor countries In industrial and agrarian societies On all continents Where humans and ecosystems meet Especially in vulnerable ecosystems

6. No longer just for scientists

7. Politicizing the atmosphere Are we developing a “Law of the Atmosphere”?

8. A reminder: Climate is not the only thing that is changing 2004 Shanghai Harbor By the Way … Climate is not the only thing that is changing 1988

9. 1 C • Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth (1972) • Model-based trends for … • Industrialization • Population growth • Widespread malnutrition • Depletion of non- renewables • Deteriorating environment

10. In analyzing the club's follow-up volume-Eduard Pestel and Mihajlo Mesarovic's Mankind at the Turning Point (1974)-Rubin similarly argues that the extensive regional planning they propose is totalitarian because sectorial planning must be subordinated to the whole. Rather than focusing on parts and wholes, a framework that at times seems semantic, Rubin might have more instructively examined the tension between, for instance, technocracy, national sovereignty, and democracy. • Reviewed by Kenneth R. Weinstein

11. 3 B’s • Brandt Commission Report – 1980 • Barney Global 2000 Report – 1980 • Brundtland Commission Report - 1987

12. Brandt Commission (1980) • Transition from oil-based world economy to sustained renewable energy sources • Link together population, environment, trade, disarmament issues • Cooperate to manage the atmosphere …

13. Barney Report (1980) “This is a massive and important study, in which all relevant U.S. government agencies participated, of world trends in population, natural resources, and the environment. What emerges is a set of global problems of fairly alarming proportions. Serious stresses by the year 2000 are clearly visible in a world more crowded (6.35 billion as compared to 4 billion population in 1975), far more polluted, less stable ecologically, and more vulnerable to disruption. The progressive impoverishment of the world's natural-resource base raises concerns about the earth's capacity to continue to provide for human needs. Because this study is more comprehensive and moderate in tone than many others-such as the Club of Rome's-it may have greater credibility.” (Foreign Affairs book review)

14. Study of world trends in … • Population • Natural resources • Environment • Globe seriously stressed by 2000: • More people • More pollution • Less stable ecosystems • More vulnerability • Impoverishment of natural resources Barney Report (1980)

15. Brundtland Commission (1987) • Set up in 1983 by UN to ... • Ensure sustained progress through development, without bankrupting resources of future generations • Link economic growth & sustainable development • Engage corporations in environmental issues

16. 1 A Agenda 21 (1992) • Prepared for the Rio de Janeiro EARTH SUMMIT in 1992: • “Humanity is at a defining moment in history” • Disparity within & between nations • Worsening of … • Poverty, hunger, ill health, illiteracy, ecosystems • Integrate environment & development Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 1992

17. Agenda 21

18. and … 1 Incomplete IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1988 to present

19. UN Conferences (1970s) • Conference on the Human Environment – 1972 (Stockholm) • World Food Conference – 1974 (Rome) • World Population Conference – 1974 (Bucharest) • World Water Conference -1976 (Rio del Plata) • World Habitat Conference – 1976 (Vancouver) • Conference on Desertification – 1977 (Nairobi) • Science & Technology Conference – 1979 (Vienna) • First World Climate Conference – 1979 (Geneva)

20. We spend lots of time and money onenvironmental education for kids

21. The big question is not whether kids can learn, but …

22. SCEP 1970 • Focused on global atmospheric problems • Global problems do not necessarily need global solutions • “In the foreseeable future advanced industrial societies will probably have to carry the major burden of remedial action” Man’s Impact on the Environment Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP) M.I.T. Press

23. SMIC 1971 Inadvertent Climate Modification “We recognize a real problem that a global temperature increase produced by man’s injection of heat and CO2 … may lead to dramatic reduction even elimination of Arctic sea ice.” “This exercise would be fruitless if we did not believe that society would be rational when faced with a set of decisions that could govern the future habitability of our planet.” Report of the Study of Man’s Impact on Climate (SMIC) Edited by SMIC M.I.T. Press

24. “It was 20 years ago today, Sgt. Pepper began to play”

25. The Changing Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security • Called for … • global pact to protect the atmosphere • ‘world atmosphere fund’ financed by tax on fossil fuels used by industrialized countries • 20% cut in 1988 global carbon emissions • “International Law of the Air” Toronto, Canada 27-30 June 1988

26. “LATE LESSONS from EARLY WARNINGS”

27. Concluding Thought “To know the road ahead, ask those coming back” Chinese Proverb

28. Lingering Fear Could the 21st century become … The Climate Century?