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Strategy Implications: Competition for Standards in the PDA Industry . Presenters: Megan McCarroll Valentin Morozov Ahmed Ozalp Francis Vo. Agenda. Industry Background and Landscape Market Projections Decision Tree Recommendation. PDA Industry Background. PDA’s are a huge market
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Strategy Implications:Competition for Standards in the PDA Industry Presenters: Megan McCarroll Valentin Morozov Ahmed Ozalp Francis Vo
Agenda • Industry Background and Landscape • Market Projections • Decision Tree • Recommendation
PDA Industry Background • PDA’s are a huge market • In 2000, 8.9 million units sold word-wide, $2.3 billion industry • By 2005, we project the 39 million units and a $6.6 billion in sales Total PDA Units Shipped — Global Forecast, 2000 to 2005 Source: Aberdeen Group, August 2001
PDA Industry Background Major H/W Players Major O/S Players
Industry Landscape Threat of New Entrants High because of horizontal integration For H/W, convergence of consumer products For O/S, introduction of more flexible platforms for applications Competitive Rivalry Consumer – Price Wars Professional/Prosumer - Price differentiators Palm O/S vs.MS Pocket PC Buyer Power Strong buyer power Low switching costs within O/S Supplier Power Weak supplier power Industry-wide shortages increase power Complementors 3rd part applications developers 3rd party hardware add-ons Threat of Substitutes Very low, paper-based day planners Possibly Yahoo distributed system but not ubiquitous
Consumer Mostly Palm-based, difficult integration Palm, Handspring Prices $150-350 First-mover advantage, established the standard Dominates the market Buying decisions made by consumers Important features: price, ease of use Business Windows-based, easy integration Compaq, HP Prices $200-450 New standard Rapidly growing segment Buying decisions made by IT managers Important features: integration with IT systems, uniformity across company Industry segments
Growth Forecast • Windows-based systems overtake in 2003 • Economies of scope, scale, better margins, deeper pockets • Is Palm next BetaMax ? • What does this mean for HP ? Palm and Pocket PC — Global Forecast, 2000 to 2005 Source: Aberdeen Group, August 2001
Decision Tree Devoted, small share = Continue as is Might get larger percentage of small growth market = Alliance (cell phone, hardware) Bigger share = Change, dominant now N Compete on OS Smaller share - Smaller share - Get out of handhelds N Stay with MS, may become dominant + Biggest share - No risk, no reward
Recommendations • Continue to support and promote merger effort with Compaq • Advantages of not competing head to head with Compaq on MS OS • If merger does not succeed, we would still maintain our current trajectory with Microsoft OS, but would need to develop a differentiating point between HP and Compaq • Proactively co-brand with Microsoft • Work with Microsoft to fuel creation of “killer apps” for MS OS standard