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Climate Change and Water in Africa

Climate Change and Water in Africa. Mark New. Recent Research 1: Uncertainty in Future River Runoff. Grand Ensemble (2x CO 2 ) Climate Model Output. Run Hydrological Model at 1x1 ° lat/lon resolution. Analyse Simulated Runoff over Major River Basins.

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Climate Change and Water in Africa

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  1. Climate Change and Water in Africa Mark New OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  2. Recent Research 1:Uncertainty in Future River Runoff Grand Ensemble (2x CO2) Climate Model Output Run Hydrological Model at 1x1° lat/lon resolution Analyse Simulated Runoff over Major River Basins OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  3. Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:General Patterns of Rainfall Change OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  4. Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:River Nile OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  5. Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Niger River OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  6. Uncertainty in Future River Runoff:Orange River OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  7. Some Caveats… • Only sampling a few of the Global Climate Model Uncertainties • A simple 2 x CO2 experiment • The hydrological model also has uncertainties OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  8. Recent Research 2:Changes in Perennial Rivers De Wit, Science, 2006 OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  9. Recent Research 2:Changes in Perennial Rivers OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  10. Recent Research 2:Changes in Perennial Rivers OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  11. Concluding Thoughts • Recent research is providing new insights into future water availability in Africa • At this stage there are few basins where a consistent picture is emerging • Rural communities may be worst hit • Availability is only one side of the issue – future demand will affect water resources far more seriously • Climate change will likely be an added stress on increasingly stressed systems OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

  12. Questions? OUCE Oxford University Centre for the Environment

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