Climate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa

1. Climate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa Modeling Activity within T21 Framework Freising 2012 Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

2. Modeling Activity within T21 Framework Contents Questions What is System Dynamics Modeling What is T21 Institutional anchorage of T21 in Burkina Faso Stakeholders involved in the development of T21 Sectors to be dealt with, in relation to Climate Change Activity Schedule A proposal as mitigation action Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

3. Questions • Is it relevant to deal with vulnerability assesment in T21 ? • What information from other tasks could be used ? Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

4. What is System Dynamics Modeling • Complex systems A set of factors interacting with many feed-back loops Causal diagram for the market of a given product (source : Michel KARSKY) • SDM aims to catch the structure of such complex systems and their behaviour through the time Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

5. Causal diagram # cognitive or conceptual map This is not a causal diagram in the acceptation of SDM : Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

6. Modeling process • Causal analysis • Model bulding • Formalizing and quantification • Simulation, calibration and validation Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

7. What is T21 • An Integrated Socio-economic-environmentalModeling and Planning Toolbased on System Dynamics The highlights:1. Good representation of complexity2. Multidisciplinary3. Transparency - Usability4. Flexibility5. Powerful designing software: Vensim Source : Millenium Institute Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

8. What is T21 Source : Millenium Institute Multi-sector integrated model promoted by The Millenium Institute and ECOWAS Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

9. Example : T21 for Malidownloadable from the web site of Millenium Institute What is T21 Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

10. Institutional anchorage of T21 Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable Ministère de l’Économie et des Finances • CLUVA Team of UO will also act as a capacity building resource for PANA • It has been obtained a free participation of CLUVA Team of Saint – Louis at all workshops organised by AAP (African Adaptation Program) in Ouagadougou Millenium Institute Experts SP/CNPE : Secrétariat Permanent du Comité National de la Politique Économique SP/CONEDD : Secrétariat Permanent du Comité National pour l’Environnement et le Développement Durable T21 ECOWAS ( EconomicCommunity of West African states ) T21 Project PANA-BF : National Action Plan for Adaptation in BF ECOWAS Team CLUVA Team Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

11. Stakeholders involved • Accredited representatives of : • Direction de la Météorologie • Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour l’Environnement et le Développement Durable (SP/CONEDD) • Secrétariat Permanent du Commission Nationale de Politique Economique (SP/CNPE) • Ministère de l’Agriculture et de l’Hydraulique • Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances • Ministère des Infrastructures • Ministère de l’Habitat et de l’Urbanisme • Ministère de la Santé • Ministère des ressources animales • Ministère de la Recherche Scientifique et de l’Innovation • Ministère des Mines, des Carrières et de l’Energie • Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable • Millenium Institute & African Adaptation Programme Coordination /Dakar Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

12. Sectors we shall be interested in • Water resources • Forestry • Agriculture • Health • Energy • Human habitat and infrastructures • Natural disasters Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

13. Activity Schedule • Strategy •  Improve modeling skills step by step with applications to multi-sector modeling and integration. • Collaborate with involved stakeholders to model vulnerability and CC adaptation issues and integrate them to T21. • What is already done or going on Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

14. Activity Schedule Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

15. Activity Schedule • Further Actions from September 2012 • Long term activity Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

16. A First Causal Diagram Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

17. A proposal as mitigation action Design and experiment of a low energy consumption cooling system Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure

18. Introduction • Global warming has severalconsequences, amongwhich: • increasedneed to air-condition buildings and houses, thusincreasingelectricity bills : in 2009 in Burkina, 15 billion CFA for public buildings, of which 60% to 75% for air-conditioningalone, not to mention the negative impact on the environment; • abrupt temperature variations suffered by users, harmful to theirhealth; • management of peakconsumptionperiods made difficult for electricitycompanies . • An ΔT reduction ( in generalrangingfrom 10°C to 15°C ) in ambienttemperaturethrough air-conditioning, requires a quantity W of energyproportional to ΔT. • Hence, anyprocess capable of reducing ΔT to1°C or2°C couldinduceconsiderablesavings. That’s the goal of thisstudy.

19. Definition of an acceptable thermal comfort Surveyswithusersallowed to determineaccording to humidity rate and the ambient air temperature, a thermal comfort zone (Figure 1) Air-conditioning and thermal comfort Definition of an acceptable thermal comfort Surveys with users allowed to determine according to humidity rate and the ambient air temperature, a thermal comfort zone (Figure 1). Fig.1 : thermal comfort zone according to temperature and humidity rate Freising E. S. Traoré °C

20. Temperaturebelow the ground Fig. 2 :Comparedevolution of underground and surface temperatures Freising E. S. Traoré

21. The cost-effective air-conditioning system • The cost-effective air-conditioning system thatwe propose will combine four processes : • Controlledmechanical ventilation (CMV) : moderate air circulation allows to shift up the thermal comfort zone for a few degrees to hightemperatures (typically 30°C). • The « compressor-free A/C or humidificator: allows to considerablylower ( below 20°C) the temperature of a hot and dry air by drawingfromit the heatnecessary for the evaporation of the water used to humidifythat air. • Canadian wells : experiencesconducted in Ouagadougou have showedthatat about 1.8 m belowground, , temperatureoscillatesveryweaklyaround de 31°C, in phase opposition with large amplitudes observedat surface.( Figure 2) • The classicalcompressor A/C, equippedwithcompressorpoweredthrough an electronic speed variator: itwillbeturned on to reach the thermal comfort zone only in case previousprocesses have failed to do so. • Thus, for very hot periodswhere air conditioning use isusually intense and costly, a judiciouscombination of theseprocessesallows to do without air conditionersequippedwithcompressors Freising E. S. Traoré

22. The automatic regulator’s technology The regulator is in charge of bringing to and maintaining at a determined point of the thermal comfort zone by judiciously implementing the processes mentioned previously. To do so, it uses entry information vector : temperature, humidity rate, wind speed and possibly other parameters. Freising E. S. Traoré

23. Fuzzycontroler Freising E. S. Traoré

24. Work steps • Dynamic multi-sector model including CC adaptation issues to establish the relevance of developping the system • Assesment of energy and money savings due to such a system in relation withrenewableenergydevelopmentcosts • Assesment of gains related to gaz emissions, labour offer, wellfare in rural areas • Etc. • Design of a fuzzycontroler for comfort point tracing • Software in a chip card • Cardreaderdevicewith monitoring ability • Experimental installation • House • Canadian well • Fan • Humidifier • Fuzzycontroler prototype • Remotesensors • Zigbee connexion devices Freising E. S. Traoré

25. Expected gains • subtantialenergysavings • reducenegativeimpact on the environment; • easier management of peakelectricalenergyconsumption; • possibility to air-condition rural areas by usingphotovoltaiccells; • ability to adapt to existingbuildings; • isautomatic and does not rely on users’ active behaviour; • development and adaptation, mainlycarried out by software, are easy and cheap; • Its production and installation willcreate new competences and opportunities on the job market. Freising E. S. Traoré

26. Climate change and Urban Vulnerability in AfricaModeling Activity within T21 Framework Thankyou for attention Eric S. Traore & Hamidou Toure