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The Past and Future of Real-Time Pricing of Electricity

The Past and Future of Real-Time Pricing of Electricity. Bernie Neenan Neenan Associates September 9, 2002. Market Blowout. Vickery. Schweppe. RTP Redux. Cal Competition. CPUC RTP. FERC. FERC NOPR. PURPA. NE ISOs. TOU Experiments. FERC. 1971. 1985. 1994. 1997. 2000. 2002.

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The Past and Future of Real-Time Pricing of Electricity

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  1. The Past and Future of Real-Time Pricing of Electricity Bernie Neenan Neenan Associates September 9, 2002

  2. Market Blowout Vickery Schweppe RTP Redux Cal Competition CPUC RTP FERC FERC NOPR PURPA NE ISOs TOU Experiments FERC 1971 1985 1994 1997 2000 2002 Defining Events

  3. ISO PRL Programs Residential TOU HIPP Competitive RTP + 4000 VIPP Contestable RTP Competitive RTP = 300 UK NZ GP PRL Cinergy, Cal, NY, PJM, NE PoolCo Duke Cal RTP FPL Others CSW 2200 2100 Cinergy 150 1000 2000 50 70 500 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2000 2002 Development Refinement Indecision RTP Chronology NMPC

  4. Observations on 17 Years of RTP • Two Part model has been vital • Safe harbor for customers and utility • Legitimizes prices • Rationalizes curtailment buy-through • Collective Experience is promising, but thin • Not that many customer experiences • Portfolio elasticities of around .10 • Results have not been thoroughly vetted • Pass conventional DSM B/C tests, BUT • New measures of benefits needed

  5. hour 9-00 a.m. Day- ahead • It’s not for everybody Observations…

  6. Some Vexing Issues • Throw them into the pool, or teach them to swim? • One versus two part rates • Level and role of appropriate technology • What is the lasting value proposition to Customers? • To competitive suppliers? To POLR utilities? • Are demand call options more popular? More effective at abating price volatility?

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