Indicators of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity

1. Indicators of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans Bureau of Environmental Assessment

2. Past and Future Rapid Environmental Change

3. General conclusions by Huntley et al., 1997. • Response to rapid climate change is species-specific and involves spatial and evolutionary mechanisms. There are thresholds and magnitudes of change to which organisms respond with either or both mechanisms • Regional variation is profound. Sometimes the regional trend differ from the global trend. Biodiversity is reshaped according to regional environmental characteristics • Major species extinctions during the Quarternary occurred during periods of rapid climate change • High altitude areas, coastal areas, isolated islands (high levels of endemism) and continetal ‘cul-de-sac’ areas were and will be the most vulnerable • It seems certain that future CC will have substantial impact upon regional and global biodiversity.

4. Stresses on Ecosystems Exotic species Management practices Extreme events climate Air pollution Non- Sustainable biodiversity Sustainable Vitality productivity Soil conservation Carbon cycle Water conservation Reduction in size of components Diversity of seral stages and stand structure Change in productivity System retrogression Trophic network integrity Resilience Change in nutrient cycling Reduced carbon storage Continued carbon sequestration Physical and biotic stability Equilibrium among supply/demand of essential resources Changes in species diversity

5. Causes of changes in biodiversity ? Habitat destruction exotic species overexploitation and degradation biodiversity pollution protection fragmentation climate change restoration ? sustainable use timepath

6. Linkages and Trade-offs are Real Sectoral assessments are too narrow Water Agriculture Desertification Biodiversity Forests Climate

7. Combining climate change and other global change aspects: Impacts on biodiversity Boreal forests Arctic regions Temperate forests 1 Tropical forests Savannas 1 Land use CO2 concentrations Nitrogen deposition Climate change Alien species

8. NDVI in January

9. NDVI in February

10. NDVI in March

11. NDVI in April

12. NDVI in May

13. NDVI in June

14. NDVI in July

15. NDVI in August

16. NDVI in September

17. NDVI in October

18. NDVI in November

19. NDVI in December

20. Changes in length and start of growing season Increase in the length of the growing season Increase in summer droughts Start of growing season after the summer drought Length Start

21. Change in fire-proneness(i.e. the area of no current dry season but one in the future)

22. An example: Changing ecosystems at a global mean temperature increase of 3oC Change: needle-leafed forests becomes broad-leafed forest Extinction Improvement Degradation Ecosystems that change are coloured. Improvement: More trees and higher productivity Change: Different species composition and landscapes Degradation: Fewer trees and lower productivity Extinction: Large habitat decline and irreversible change

23. Dieback is fast, regrowth is slow

24. Impact on the yield of corn Less No More The regional yield can change: some regions improve while others decline (mainly driven by drought)

25. How do risks evolve globally? 1 oC 2 oC 3 oC Extent expansion Extent decrease Yield increase Yield decrease Ecosystems 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % Impacts are expressed as the percentage area affected. The reference is the current area (crops) or the total amount of land (ecosystems).

26. The reasons for concern Risks from future large-scale discontinuities Very low Higher Positive or negative Market impacts, Majority of People adversely affected Net Negative for most metrics Aggregate impacts Negative for some regions Negative formost regions Distribution of impacts Risk of extreme weather events Increase Large increase Risks to unique & valuable systems Risk to Some Risk to Many 0 1 2 3 4 5 Past Future

27. IPCC SRES scenarios and reason for concerns for dangerous impacts

28. Environmental Scorecard KEY Condition Changing Capacity Source: Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, WRI, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank

29. MA will address impacts of multiple drivers Climate Change Land Cover Change Biodiversity Loss Nutrient Loading Etc. Energy Sector Biodiversity Food Supply Water Ecosystems Health Economics Social Health Economics Social MA Driver Response Human Impact Climate Change IPCC

30. The MA assessment framework Scale 3 Scale 1 Scale 2 • Primary Drivers • Demographic Change • Economic Change • Social and Political Change • Technological change • Lifestyle and Behavioral change • Proximate Drivers • Climate Change • Land Use & Cover Change • Factor inputs • Pollution • Nutrient Release • Species Introductions • Harvest Demand • Ecosystems & • their Services • Supporting (Biodiversity and ecosystem processes) • Provisioning (Food, water,fiber, fuel, other biological products) • Enriching (Cultural, aesthetic) • Wellbeing & Poverty Reduction • Health and disease • Environmental Security • Cultural Security • Economic Security • Equity = Strategies and Interventions

31. Thanks for your attention

32. An example of the monthly exceedance indicator

33. An example of the monthly exceedance indicator

34. Global exceedance

35. Regional Exceedance Higher temperature increase but broad temperature ranges (especially in the winter): all ecosystems affected but not throughout the year Medium temperature increase but less broad temperature ranges: all ecosystems affected during most of the year Small temperature increase but narrow temperature ranges: almost all ecosystems affected during most of the year

36. Spatial pattern of exceedance in 2050