Biodiversity and Climate Change

1. Biodiversity and Climate Change Using Florida Plants To Explore Concepts in Ecology and Evolution

2. Biodiversity: The totality of life on Earth

3. Biodiversity Crisis& Societal Problems • Loss of biodiversity • Climate change • Emerging pathogens • Invasive species • Threats to food security • Environmentally induced health issues Solving these biodiversity-centered problems requires concentrated attention from diverse perspectives

4. Invasive Species:Ecological & Economic Impacts • Where have invasivesbeen introduced, and how quickly are they spreading? • What is the pattern of spread, and do patterns covary with other species? • How does climate change affect the spread of invasives? • Can we predict future invasions?

5. Biodiversity Collections The single largest source of information on biological diversity (outside nature) >1,600 natural history collections in US alone 1 billion specimens in USA 2-4 billion specimens globally

6. Collections: The Library of Life Florida Museum of Natural History > 30 Million Specimens and Artifacts 2nd Largest University Museum in US

8. Collection Size: US Ranking

9. Florida Plant Diversity in a Changing Climate Integrating herbarium specimen data, climate change models, and phylogeny Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes: 239 families (100% of FL) 1336 genera (96% of FL) 2587 species (63% of FL) Today, 2050, 2080 • C. Germain-Aubrey, J. Allen, • K. Neubig,L. Majure, R. Abbott, R. Guralnick, J. M. Ponciano, D. Soltis, P. Soltis • The Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes: • 239 families (100% of FL) • 1336 genera (96% of FL) • 2587 species (63% of FL) • The Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes: • 239 families (100% of FL) • 1336 genera (96% of FL) • 2587 species (63% of FL) • The Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes: • 239 families (100% of FL) • 1336 genera (96% of FL) • 2587 species (63% of FL)

10. Modeling the Distribution of Species • Location information and environmental data • Software to model the range of each species • Project onto future climate conditions • For Florida plants: • >1500 plant species (of 4200 species) • >511,000 georeferenced points • Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.

11. Responses to Climate Change: Winners & Losers Abildgaardiaovata(flatspike sedge) now 2050 Prunusgeniculata(scrub plum) now 2050

12. Florida Plant Diversity Now High species diversity Low species diversity

14. Research Lab Field Museum

16. Teaching Module Objectives • To use niche modeling as an example of how natural history collections are utilized by scientists. • To show students the applications of niche modeling, such as climate change and urbanization. • To familiarize students with the programs used to generate the models and the logic behind how those programs work. • To gain a better appreciation of the factors impacting the distribution of biodiversity today and in the future. Focal Concepts Skills Developed Skills and access needed Audience/Duration Assessment Future Directions • Add a phylogenetic context: Basic understanding of tree building, including parsimony and characters • The role of DNA in phylogenetic analysis, and the possible contribution of museum specimens in this process

17. Overview of Day’s Activities • Introduction – Pam • Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan • iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn • Georeferencing – Blaine • Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte • Tying to phylogeny – Doug • Discussion & Wrap-up

18. Using Museum Specimens and Computer Models in Biodiversity Studies • Herbaria important sources of information on past and present species distributions • Location information and environmental data • temperature, precipitation, soil • Software to model the range of each species • Project onto future climate conditions • >2700 plant species (of 4200) >511,000 plant location records Calhoun County

19. www.idigbio.org National center for digitization of biodiversity collections Collaboration among FLMNH, Engineering, & FSU: ~$12M Coordinate digitization and databasing of US collections Ingest, serve, integrate data: Localities Dates Images

20. HUB 134 institutions in 49 states Ten TCNS and collaborating institutions: 152 institutions in 50 states

22. Georeferencing • Assigns geographic coordinates to locality data • Allows data from previous collection events to be displayed on digital maps • Allows researchers to: • visualize the spatial and temporal intensity of scientific collecting activity • examine species distributions • develop predictive models of species habitat use • use natural history data to address important scientific and societal needs such as conservation, environmental restoration, and preparing for global climate change

23. Elements of a niche taxonomy J. Soberon

24. Modeling the Distribution of Species • Location information and environmental data • Software to model the range of each species • Project onto future climate conditions • For Florida plants: • >2700 plant species (of 4200 species) • >511,000 georeferenced points • Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.

25. Overview of Day’s Activities • 8:30 Introduction – Pam • 9:00 Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan • 9:15 iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn • 9:30 Georeferencing – Blaine • 9:45 Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte • 10:00 Break • 10:15 Ecological Niche Modeling Step by Step • 12:30 Lunch • 1:00 Tying to phylogeny – Doug • Discussion & Wrap-up – all

26. Between Now and 2050… • Panhandle species moving NORTH! • Peninsula species moving SOUTH! # spp 2050 - #spp now

27. Sea Level Rise by 2050 4m