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Scenario-building as a communication tool. Skryhan Hanna Krasnoyarsk, February, 15 – February, 22, 2014. The Anthropocene. Source: http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/12/welcome_to_the.php. What will the future bring?. O bservations. The problem studying with the future.
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Scenario-building as a communication tool Skryhan Hanna Krasnoyarsk, February, 15 – February, 22, 2014
The Anthropocene Source: http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/12/welcome_to_the.php
What will the future bring? Observations
The problem studying with the future • We can’t observe it, but … • We know that it’ll be different (probably) • We cannot use traditional scientific methods • We need a set of tools to tackle the unknowns and uncertainties of the future
The way we address ‘futures‘ in complex systems depends on: • (a) how well we understand a system‘s complexity / causalities; • (b) how uncertain we are about future developments of key drivers Source: Zurek, M., Henrichs, T., 2007. Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Scenario “Scenario (outcome) – a plausible image of the future, based on the qualitative or quantitative interpretation of a set of scenario assumptions, which can be presented as narrative storylines or quantitative figures and maps (models)” (Metzger et al., 2010) Scenarios are not predictions!
Scenarios and projections • Scenarios astools to • …explore the future, • …assess the effects of future (environmental, social) change, • …describe drivers of change – social, economic, policy, technology, governance, • …assess policy options in a context, • …provide a platform for stakeholder discussion, • …deal with uncertainty, • …connect descriptions of the future to the present through a series of causal links, • …etc.
Advantages and disadvantages • Critic of Explanatory scenarios : the constraints of the present are likely to lead to conservative scenarios, in that the progress that could be reached is underestimated and new options are not taken into consideration
Scenario development • Qualitative descriptions of the range and role of different land use change drivers • Quantitative assessments of the total area requirement (quantity) of each land use type, as a function of changes in the relevant drivers for each scenario • Spatial allocation rules to locate the land use quantities in geographic space across Europe
Driving forces: ESTEPEnvironmental, Social, Technological, Economic, Political • Define driving forces • Select scenario axis
Development of explanatory scenarios • Select scenario axis • Develop scenarios
Development of scenarioProblem: Transportation system in KrasnoyarskForecasting period: 2014 - 2034 • Step 1-2: Work in small groups – 30 min • Step 1. Identifying driving forces / impact factors influencing in present and future • Step 2. Assess of significance and likelihood of each impact factor (for each ESTEP group). Fill in the tables • Step 3. Distribution of driving forces for whole problems – 15 min • Distribute impact factors • Choose the most important factors • Step 4. Choosing and naming of scenario axis – 15 min • Step 5. Discussion and naming of scenarios – 15 min
Development of scenarioProblem: Transportation system in KrasnoyarskForecasting period: 2014 - 2034 High importance Low influencing High influencing Low importance