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www.nautilus.org Seoul October 18, 2010

Global Security and Complexity. Peter Hayes Professor, International Relations, Nautilus-RMIT Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, USA. www.nautilus.org Seoul October 18, 2010. Global Security: 1 st half of 20 th Century Fluidly Simple. State-based security

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www.nautilus.org Seoul October 18, 2010

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  1. Global Security and Complexity Peter HayesProfessor, International Relations, Nautilus-RMIT Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, USA www.nautilus.org Seoul October 18, 2010

  2. Global Security: 1st half of 20th Century Fluidly Simple State-based security Classic Realist Balance of power politics Two world wars Anti-colonial wars to establish new states or reinstate pre-colonial states or empires

  3. Global Security: 2nd Half of 20th Century Rigid Simplicity Cold War for 4 decades Bipolar structure covering entire planet Blocs and Alliances Balance of terror Spheres of influence Non-aligned states Contested zones (Korea) Wars of national liberation Very predictable…until the Soviet Union fell apart Bipolar system reconstituted around American hegemony for 10 years when the world spun apart

  4. CC Adaptation: Reminder--Complex Systems • Local processes may govern transitions of the state of the whole system due to dependence on the initial conditions or what is known intuitively as the “butterfly effect.” • Due to their non-linearity, the effects of these interacting processes across scales, including positive and negative feedbacks, are inherently unpredictable.

  5. 21st Century: Global Security Increasing Complexity – 13 dimensions Source: http://www.watsoninstitute.org/globalsecuritymatrix

  6. Global + Resource Conflict

  7. Global + Warfare

  8. Outside-In Approach:Wicked WMD-Insecurity Complex 16 Part Global Problem Outside-In Approach: Wicked WMD InsecurityComplex 20 Part Global Solution Perkovich et al, 2006

  9. Shift from Simple to Complex Security State -> {State + Market + Civil Society} State (military) -> {State + Military + Human + Ecological Security} Political -> {Political + Legal + Institutional Security} National -> {National + Local + Global + Individuals + Glocal + Networked Security}

  10. Simple to Complex Global Problem-Solving Shift from Singular, sequential problem-solving to Multiple, simultaneous problem-solving For example

  11. Outside-In Approach: “Sustainable Security” Conclusion (p. 29) Five macro-drivers of instability worsen each other and require simultaneous and integrated solutions Source: Oxford Research Group, June 2006

  12. Holdren: reduces this complexity to nexus:“energy-economy-environment dilemma” Pollution, Environmental Stress Nuclear Proliferation Climate Change Energy Poverty Climate Change Development

  13. Global Problem-Solving Failures and Strategies Global Gridlock • International treaties (too slow, too ritualistic) • International regimes (non-binding, no enforcement) • Mega-conferences (respond to cumulative failure to solve urgent problems, LCD consensus, dissensus, no followup) • G7-8, 20 type groupings (process failures, not inclusive, disconnected from market and CS knowledge, vertical and time distance • 40 global “multilateral” IGOs (constrained by paymasters, small funding, scapegoated) Global Solutions • World Government: distill all the above into global gridlock; great powers dominant and entrenched • or • Networked governance (multisectoral, global issue, norm-based networks, fast, legitimate, cross-border, inclusive of diversity, internet-based + G20 specialized inter-governmental initiatives

  14. Genesis of Modern Traditional Think Tanks (Rand, Hudson, IDA, CNA...) • academic • contract research • advocacy • party-affiliated “Keep an eye on those two.”

  15. States Cram Complexity into a Few Bureaucratic Boxes

  16. Enabling conditions: Internet + globalization

  17. Key Concepts for Transnational Think Nets • the information milieu of the global public sphere is the critical domain for policy articulation and implementation • because it contains the common knowledge and shared reference points that are critical to successful negotiation • seek to identify natural affines that share weak links • solution to the “small worlds” problem

  18. INFOAXIOM 2www.infoaxioms.org Common Knowledge and Networks Speed of diffusion varies by weak-strong links (less processing, less distance, fastest communication in weakly coupled networks)

  19. Transnational Think-Nets • communicate across borders and behind the scenes • speak truth to power • top quality information and analysis • Informational and analytic timeliness, accuracy, insight (especially early warning of pending events, emerging issues, or anomalies in conventional perspectives • connectivity to networked policymakers.

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