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A Tribute To Sarah Lichtenstein Risk Perception

A Tribute To Sarah Lichtenstein Risk Perception. Elke U. Weber Center for Decision Sciences (CDS) Columbia University SJDM, St. Louis, 2011. Sarah Lichtenstein. Trail Blazer/Pioneer Leading JDM Topics Preference Construction Decision Analysis/Uncertainty Assessment

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A Tribute To Sarah Lichtenstein Risk Perception

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  1. A Tribute To Sarah LichtensteinRisk Perception Elke U. Weber Center for Decision Sciences (CDS) Columbia University SJDM, St. Louis, 2011

  2. Sarah Lichtenstein • Trail Blazer/Pioneer • Leading JDM Topics • Preference Construction • Decision Analysis/Uncertainty Assessment • Probability and Confidence Judgments • Risk Perception (“Queen of Risk”) • Methods • Preference Reversal paradigm • Multidimensional scaling of risk similarity judgments • Role Model • Mother of (S)JDM • Her life history as reference-point therapy

  3. “Sarah Lichtenstein”

  4. Sarah Lichtenstein (by Zuckerman)

  5. “1970s Sarah Lichtenstein” by Roy Lichtenstein

  6. Sarah’s Impact on Risk Research • Psychological risk dimensions research established that perceptions of risk • Matter • Are not (only) consequential • Have strong experiential and affective component, anticipating • Emotions revolution • Decisions from experience vs. from description • Are subjective • Relative • “Compared to what?” • Recent work on Coefficient of Variation (CV = STD/EV) • Domain specific • Growing body of work on DOSPERT risk perceptions and risk attitudes • Depend on culture, anticipating • Mary Douglas & Aaron Wildawski’s anthropological perspective of perceiving risk in things that threaten one’s values or way of life

  7. Sarah’s Impact on Risk Research • Psychological risk dimensions research established that perceptions of risk • Matter • Are not (only) consequential • Have strong experiential and affective component, anticipating • Emotions revolution • Decisions from experience vs. from description • Are subjective • Relative • “Compared to what?” • Recent work on Coefficient of Variation (CV = STD/EV) • Domain specific • Growing body of work on DOSPERT risk perceptions and risk attitudes • Depend on culture, anticipating • Mary Douglas & Aaron Wildawski’s anthropological perspective of perceiving risk in things that threaten one’s values or way of life

  8. Scientific and Social Relevance • Psychological risk dimensions work continues to explain many political debates • Disagreements between domain experts and general public • Actuaries and flood plain residents on flood risks • Pediatricians and parents on vaccinations • Disagreements between observers with different degrees of knowledge and different political ideologies • Perception of risks of climate change by scientists, general public, Democrats, Republicans

  9. OBHDP 1998 Publication Analysis:Golden Oldies • #1 • citation count then: 777 • citation count now: 895 • Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971) • #6 • citation count then: 180 • citation count now: 322 • Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff, 1977) • #9 • citation count then: 114 • citation count now: 161 • Training for calibration (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff, 1980)

  10. Other impactful papers (ISI Web of Science citation counts) • 1977 Annual Review Chapter  575 • Preference reversals • JEP (1971)  473 • JEP (1973)  216 • AER (1983)  233 • Confidence • JEP:HPP (1977)  301 • JEP:HLM (1980)  490 • Probability judgments • JEP:HPP (1978)  244 • JEP:HLM (1978)  473

  11. More recent work has had an environmental focus • Preference reversals and the measurement of environmental values • Irwin, Slovic, Lichtenstein, McClelland, JRU (1993) (59 citations) • Valuing environmental resources: A constructive approach • Gregory, Lichtenstein, Slovic, JRU (1993) (154 citations) • What’s bad is easy: Taboo values, affect, and cognition • Lichtenstein, Gregory, & Irwin, JDM (2007)

  12. Sarah’s Risks

  13. Sarah Lichtenstein

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