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Vinod Khosla vk@khoslaventures Sept, 2010

Vinod Khosla vk@khoslaventures.com Sept, 2010. k nowing less…. …failing more. 1. …when conventional wisdom makes no sense. in a 2005 study of 80 critically ill patients, “there were seven deaths in people getting standard treatment and only one in those allowed to have fever…”

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Vinod Khosla vk@khoslaventures Sept, 2010

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  1. Vinod Khoslavk@khoslaventures.comSept, 2010 knowing less… …failing more 1

  2. …when conventional wisdom makes no sense • in a 2005 study of 80 critically ill patients, “there were seven deaths in people getting standard treatment and only one in those allowed to have fever…” • …at which point the study was halted due to ethical concerns 2 Source: New Scientist - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727711.400-fever-friend-or-foe.html

  3. …when 5B people live like 500M do today 3 Source: EIA

  4. …worldwide car sales: 2000 4 Source: various reports – no’s are approximate

  5. …worldwide car sales: 2009 5 Source: various reports – no’s are approximate

  6. …but still plenty of room to grow! Number of cars per 1000 people (2008) 6 Source: Deloitte Consulting , Economist Intelligence Unit

  7. …the chindia testonly scalable if competitive unsubsidized

  8. Volt or Nano? Tata Nano: 203,000 pre-orders or Chevy Volt: 45,000 by 2012 8 Source: BBC, GM

  9. … liquid fuel vs. battery 0% 100% Fast (relative) battery tech development % of power from electric sources % of power from liquid fuel Slow battery tech development 0% 100% Time 9

  10. …traditional views? 10

  11. …green: batteries vs. ICE

  12. …electric cars aren’t an easy “fix-it” 12

  13. … coal in China 13

  14. … the BP oil spill 14 Source: The Guardian

  15. … coal mining 15 Source: http://dotdecay.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/wmd-coal-mine.jpg

  16. … the sources of petroleum 16

  17. …What are the real issues? Cost of aircraft carriers in Persian Gulf (1976 - 2007): $7.3 TRILLION! 17 Source: Foreign Policy, citing Roger Stern, Princeton

  18. …electric does not solve anything by itself “China's dirty and dangerous coal mining industry cost the country a hidden $250 billion last year in lost and damaged lives, wasted energy and environmental devastation.” 18 Source: Reuters – research initiated by WWF, Greenpeace, and the Energy Foundation

  19. Impact on CO2 & oil use : ICE or EV? U.S. New Vehicle Sales by Technology (millions) Source: Energy Information Administration

  20. If China’s per capita oil use = South Korea, its share of global use goes from 10% to 70%! 20 Source: Council of Foreign Relations/Paul Swartz, citing OECD / BP / IMF / US Census / BLS

  21. Technology Choices Adv. TDI TDI ECT VCR GDI V-6 Source: Estimates from discussions and the working committee of Academy of Science

  22. Technology Choices EV PHEV E-Hybrid Source: Estimates from discussions and the working committee of Academy of Science

  23. incremental gains continue over time Upper bound, powertrain Regen braking Stop-start Upper bound, base engine Reduced friction, thermal management Near-term Future 12-15% 8-12% 8-12% 7-9% 6-8% 5-7% 3-5% 2-4% 1-3% Cam phasing 2-step VVA w/ phaser Boosted, Downsized Fully flexible valve actuation Advanced DI/HCCI concepts PDA w/ high EGR Cylinder deactivation Flexible VVA DI stratified charged w/NOx Trap Excerpt from General Motors Presentation at the Chicago Federal Reserve - Automotive Outlook Symposium, June 2010

  24. …unconventional

  25. “The fine line separating the delusional from the visionaries amongst us is often not foresight, but rather hindsight.” Ben Semel

  26. …our approach: crazy risks Projects/plans or“shots on goal” Safe orLikely to fail Fiduciary investing orNon-fiduciary 26

  27. Ready… Fire! …Aim 27

  28. Ecomotors 28

  29. …the Ecomotors story re-examination of a 100 year old idea … …an entrepreneur with a track record of defying the naysayers 29

  30. …everyone told me: • It is not possible to convert a gasoline engine to a Diesel, using the same transfer line. I did it and it is the most successful Diesel in the world and it was copied by everybody. • The combustion for a high speed Diesel is not possible. I started production with a 5000 rpm Diesel with 2000 engines/day on the gasoline engine transfer line. • 3. You cannot use a rubber toothed belt to drive the camshaft and the injection pump. I did it and it is the standard solution today. • It is not possible to use an aluminum radiator because the corrosion will destroy the engine. I did it and it is the standard solution today. • It is not possible to create an “emission free” natural gas burner. I did it. It is in mass production at VIESSMANN. BUDERUS sued VIESSMANN about “emission free” and lost. • Dr. Peter Hofbauer, Chairman and CTO 30

  31. ….OPOC Engine Dual Module Design Unique Tribrid Design 31

  32. EcoMotors’ Technology Targets 50+% More Efficient -no change in “energy/distribution” infrastructure Target Efficiency: -Single Module +15% -Dual Module +45% -Tribrid +55% 1 / 2 the Weight & Size Lowest Cost… 1/2 the parts ~1 hp/lb -Easy to mfg -Uses existing suppliers Clean Emissions with the Lowest Carbon Footprint 32

  33. Technology Choices EV Ecomotors Tribrid PHEV E-Hybrid Source: Estimates from discussions and the working committee of Academy of Science

  34. Smallest Carbon Footprint • Assumptions • 5 yrs of operation • 12K miles/yr • US base electricity • (50% coal) OPOC ADVANTAGE!

  35. Lowest Cost…Initial Cost & Operating Cost • Assumptions • 5 yrs of operation • 12K miles/yr • $3.00/gal – gasoline cost • $2.75/gal – diesel cost • $0.10/kW-hr • 3% cost of capital OPOC ADVANTAGE! * * 14 * Source: McKinsey Quarterly #3

  36. Transonic 36

  37. …the Transonic idea SUPERCRITICAL FUEL INJECTION 37 Source: Transonic

  38. TSCi™ FUEL INJECTION GASOLINE DIRECT INJECTION (GDI) Liquid Injection 100⁰C (uncontrolled) Non-Catalyzed High Octane Gasoline Combustion before TDC Supercritical Injection 400⁰C Catalyzed Low Octane Gasoline Optimized Combustion 38 Source: Transonic

  39. NRG Dynamix 39

  40. NanoStellar 40

  41. Fuels 41

  42. …fresh approach to fuels Pathways Outputs Fermentation Sources Microbial cultures Specific alcohols/ chemicals/ alkanes Natural Oils Gasification Microbes Gasification F-T catalysis Sugars/ Starch Mixalco Process Mixed alcohols Decreasing cost/increasing scale Catalytic Conversion Algae Biodiesel (FAME/FAEE), Glycerin Transesterification Biomass Re-crude Waste Thermo-catalytic conversion Pyrolysis oil & black liquor Pyrolysis 42

  43. Amyris 43

  44. Gevo 44

  45. Coskata 45

  46. Kior 46

  47. Batteries 47

  48. Sakti3 48

  49. Advanced modeling drives Li-ion leaps Computation Manufacturing Finite element Multi-physics Surrogate-based analysis Reduced experimentation High throughput Low cost

  50. Seeo 50

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