Industrial Energy Efficiency and Technology Trends and Scenarios

1. Industrial Energy Efficiency and Technology Trends and Scenarios Dr Peter Taylor Head, Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency International Workshop on Industrial Energy Efficiency 27 January 2010, New Delhi, India

2. Overview of Presentation • IEA work to track industrial energy efficiency • Future scenarios and technology options • Next steps

3. Energy use in Industry (2007) Source: IEA Statistics

4. IEA Approach to Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency • Current efficiencies & past trends on a country or regional level, by sector • Focus on energy and CO2 emissions per unit of physical product (tonnes) • Proposes multiple indicators: there exists no “true” country ranking • Assess realistic technical long term improvement potentials (based on indicators)

5. Types of Indicators • Energy Use Indicators • Energy use per tonne of clinker • Energy use per tonne of crude steel • CO2 Indicators • CO2 emissions per tonne of steel • CO2 emissions per tonne of cement • Explanatory Indicators • Clinker to cement ratio • Alternative fuel use in clinker production • Ratio of BOF/EAF for steel making

6. Cement Indicator – Thermal energy use per tonne clinker Includes alternative fuels use

7. Iron and Steel Indicator -Blast Furnace Reductant Use 2007

8. Efficiency of Coal-fired Power Generation

9. Cement Sector - BAT energy savings potential 2006

10. Iron and Steel Sector - BAT Energy savings potential 2007

11. Technical Fuel and CO2 Savings in Power Generation

12. Towards Better Indicator Data • IEA analysis focuses on trends and improvement potentials (technology analysis) • Requires better information to improve value for policy-making • Continued effort to refine indicators and improve the dataset, based on national energy data submissions, supplemented by industry data • Welcome the chance to work with BEE and other Indian stakeholders

13. Global Cement – Key Findings • Emissions in 2050 can be reduced by 18% compared to today with options <$200/tCO2 • Efficiency essential to 2030 • Alternative fuels and switching important • Limited improvements from clinker substitutes • CCS is key to long term, large reductions – demos needed by 2015 with deployment from 2020 • 50% of all kilns would need to be equipped with CCS by 2050 BLUE low scenario BLUE high scenario

14. India: Industrial CO2 Abatement Options Direct energy and process emissions only

15. Observations for India • India will see high rates of industrial production growth • Both very efficient and less efficient plants • Significant small scale heavy industry • Needs special attention • Average energy intensity 5 – 50% higher than best country • Part of this is structural (scrap availability, coal use etc.) • Need to resolve outstanding data issues

16. Proposed Next Steps in India Analysis • Look further into data issues • Further refine appropriate indicators for industry • Assess capital stock age and size distribution • Improve future scenarios, incl. improvement potentials (new technology, technology transfer) • Better assess costs of energy efficiency improvements (retrofit and new plants) • Enhance co-operation with a range of stakeholders

17. Thank You peter.taylor@iea.org cecilia.tam@iea.org