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California Industrial Energy Efficiency Potential

California Industrial Energy Efficiency Potential. CPUC Prehearing Conference & Working Group Sessions Energy Efficiency Strategic Planning, 2009-2020 San Francisco, CA November 5, 2007 Fred Coito fred.coito@kema.com. Types of DSM Potential. Technical. Economic. Achievable Program.

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California Industrial Energy Efficiency Potential

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  1. California Industrial Energy Efficiency Potential CPUC Prehearing Conference & Working Group Sessions Energy Efficiency Strategic Planning, 2009-2020 San Francisco, CA November 5, 2007 Fred Coito fred.coito@kema.com

  2. Types of DSM Potential Technical Economic Achievable Program Naturally Occurring Technical – complete penetration of measures analyzed in applications where deemed technically feasible from an engineering perspective. Economic – technical potential of measures that are cost-effective when compared to supply-side alternatives Achievable Program – subset of economic potential captured with specific program funding and measure incentive levels (Incorporates real-world customer behavior) Naturally Occurring – the amount of reduction estimated to occur as a result of normal market forces, that is, in the absence of any utility programs

  3. Baseline Energy Consumption

  4. Baseline Energy Consumption

  5. Electric Savings Potential Summary (2016)

  6. Natural Gas Savings Potential Summary (2016)

  7. Technical and Economic Potential (2016)

  8. Program Funding Scenarios Average Expenditures Over the 2005-2016 Analysis Period in Millions of $ per Year *Incentives are not paid on equipment maintenance measures.

  9. Potential Achievable Savings by End Use Cumulative net savings: 2005-2016

  10. Potential Achievable Savings by Industry Group Cumulative net savings: 2005-2016

  11. Achievable Electricity Potential

  12. Achievable Natural Gas Potential

  13. Key Measures

  14. Key Barriers to Achieving All Economic Potential • Long equipment turnover cycles; long project planning cycles • Limited capital • Production concerns • Limited staff time • Information • Reliability concerns • Hassle factor • Facility uncertainty • Cost effectiveness

  15. Summary and Conclusions • Over the 2005-2016 period: • Achievable electric potential: 5% - 8% of base usage • Achievable gas potential: 1% - 5% of base usage • Maximum achievable savings are 60% higher than base achievable savings for electricity and 300% higher than base savings for natural gas • Considerable uncertainty in Maximum achievable estimates, especially for natural gas savings • Improved process controls, system optimization, and operation and maintenance measures are key components of potential savings. • These measures are more difficult to implement than typical efficiency measures and customer adoption questions contribute to forecast uncertainty.

  16. Report • The full report is available at the CALMAC website (www.calmac.org) • Main Report: http://www.calmac.org/publications/Industrial_Potential_Vol_1_Main_Report_KEMA.pdf • Appendices http://www.calmac.org/publications/Industrial_Potential_Vol_2_Appendixes_KEMA.pdf

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