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Preliminary approach

Preliminary approach. Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy to the World Energy Supply. H.Nifenecker 1 , D.Heuer 1 , S.David 2 , J.M.Loiseaux 1 , J.M.Martin 3 , O.Meplan 1 ,A.Nuttin 1 1 Institut des Sciences Nucléaires (IN2P3-CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier)

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Preliminary approach

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  1. Preliminary approach

  2. Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy to the World Energy Supply H.Nifenecker1, D.Heuer1, S.David2, J.M.Loiseaux1, J.M.Martin3, O.Meplan1 ,A.Nuttin1 1Institut des Sciences Nucléaires (IN2P3-CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) 53 ave. Des Martyrs F38026 Grenoble France 2Institut de Physique Nucléaire d’Orsay, (IN2P3-CNRS, Université Paris XI) BP 1, F-91406 Orsay Cedex, France 3Institut d’Economie et de Politique de l’Energie (CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) BP47, F38040 Grenoble Cedex 09 France

  3. Global Heating Challenge

  4. Models for emission (a) and concentrations of CO2 (b) (a) (b)

  5. Global Warming • Present Emissions : 6GtC • World population: 6 Billions • Emission/capita: 1 Ton C Max. emission for temperature stabilization: 3GtC • Objective for 2050 • World Population(minimum) : 9 Billions • Emission/capita: 0.33 Ton

  6. Present emissions • World average: 1 ton C/capita • USA: 6 tons C/capita • Germany : 3.5 tons C/capita • France: 1.9 tons C/capita • China: 0.7 tons C/capita

  7. IIASA-WEC Scenarios • A: strong growth • A1: Oil • A2: Coal • A3:Gaz • B: Middle of the road • C: Low energy intensity. High electricity • C1: Ren.+Gaz • C2: Ren.+Nuclear

  8. Exhaustion of fossile reserves (Gtoe)

  9. Nuclear Intensive Scenarios

  10. 2030 • Minimize use of fossiles forElectricity • « Reasonable » implementation of Nuclear Power • OECD: 85% • Transition:50% • China, India, Latin Am.:30% 3000 GWe Nuclear Power

  11. 2050 Manage 235U Reserves 1stScenario • No more use of fossiles for electricity 4500 GWe Nuclear Power 2ndScenario • Generalized use of Electrolytic Hydrogen • Increased share of Electricity: • OECD: 90% • Transition: 85% • S.E.Asia: 80% • Rest of the World: 70% 9000 GWe Nuclear Power

  12. Scenario no coal no gas in 2050

  13. Gestion of Natural Uranium Reserves

  14. Breeding Cycles

  15. U-Pu versus Th-U cycles • U-Pu • Fast Spectra • Pu fuel • 1.2 GWe reactors • Solid fuels • 1 year cooling • 25 years doubling time • Th-U • Thermal Spectra • Pu, then 233U fuel • 1 GWe reactors • Molten Salts fuel • 10 days fuel cycling • 25 years doubling time

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