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Merging space, time, chemistry and environmental media: Monitoring challenges

Merging space, time, chemistry and environmental media: Monitoring challenges. WRAP Monitoring Workshop Chandler, Arizona May 15, 2008. Rich Scheffe, EPA-OAR. Acknowledgments. Everyone WRAP-RPO’s National Level Impact on Environmental Assessments

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Merging space, time, chemistry and environmental media: Monitoring challenges

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  1. Merging space, time, chemistry and environmental media: Monitoring challenges WRAP Monitoring Workshop Chandler, Arizona May 15, 2008 Rich Scheffe, EPA-OAR

  2. Acknowledgments • Everyone • WRAP-RPO’s National Level Impact on Environmental Assessments • Gap filling IMPROVE samplers in center of CONUS • VIEWS and related TSS • NH3 emissions modeling • Accelerating SOA treatment in CMAQ

  3. simply, Arithmetic injustice • Greater than 95% of air pollutant mass is located above 100m, yet we (air program community) focus 95 % of our characterization on the bottom 10 meters {compromises both predictive and current characterization phenomena}

  4. Topics • Integration drivers • Themes from 2004 NAS study • Multiple-pollutant, - media; accountability • Trend of lowed high volume air quality standards (O3, PM) • Relative economic growth distribution globally • Convergence of non-cancer causing health effect mechanisms across pollutants • Increasing technology • Decreasing (relative) measurement resources • Climate-AQ interactions • Information technology and data integration systems • Monitoring thoughts

  5. Obstacles to improved observation operations and design • Decaying(?) infrastructure • Reliance on compliance type measurements and related FRM/FEMs • Lack of market incentives • Inadequate technology transfer from research to operations

  6. Emerging Challenges for Air Policy • Developing Multiple pollutant integrated management strategies • Assessing and Protecting Ecosystem Health • Multiple spatial scales of interest • Intercontinental and Cross-Border Transport • Maintaining AQM System Efficiency in the face of Changing Climate • Ongoing Assessments and feedbacks of program progress (accountability)

  7. Air Toxics • History of emissions standards setting processes • General characterization of risk

  8. Nexus of ozone, PM2.5 (2003-5) and air toxics (NATA 1999) High Risk Counties often Coincide with Locations where Criteria Pollutant Issues are Significant - . Draft

  9. Multimedia Assessments • Start with NAPAP (Acid rain, Title 4) • Interest waning as ozone, then PM2.5 emerged as dominant air quality interests starting in the late 1980’s • 2004 NAS AQ Report driving EPA, AQ community • Reorganization • Resource allocations • New NARSTO MP-MM-ACC assessment • NASA participation requested

  10. Primary Sources HAP metals VOC (HAPs) CO NO SVOC SO2 Hg O3 O3 OH OH, O3 RO2 HO2 hν OH hν NO2 OH Hgo,Hg2 OH NH3 HNO3 H2SO4 gases particles Organic PM Nitrate PM Sulfate PM Chemical Deposition Integration across pollutants and media: tradeoffs and optimum strategies?

  11. ACCOUNTABILITY

  12. Accountability and Indicators Pipeline Source emissions Direct NO, SO2, VOC, CO, metals, Increasing influence in confounding factors and perceived value to public policy Ambient precursors and intermediates NO, NOy, CO, VOC, SO2, metals, radicals, peroxides Ambient target species O3, PM, HAPs Secondary and deposition loads Visibility, acidification, eutrophication, metals Exposures Inhalation, digestion Increasing confidence In characterization Ecosystem + effects Defoliation, Visibility ↓ biodiversity, Metals concentration Health effects Asthma, cardio-pulmonary ↓, Cancer, death Perceived (measured?) Life quality Feedback/correction

  13. Tons Reduction -33,000 - 0 0 - 27,000 28,000 - 73,000 74,000 - 110,000 120,000 Largest decline in ozone occurs in and downwind of EGU NOx emissions reductions (2002-2004) (analysis constrained by absence ambient NOx data) Decline in “Seasonal Average” 8-Hour Daily Maximum Ozone EGU NOx Tons Reduced Met. Adj. • The major EGU NOx emissions reductions occurs after 2002 (mostly NOx SIP Call) • Average rate of decline in ozone between 1997 and 2002 is 1.1%/year. • Average rate of decline in ozone between 2002 and 2004 is 3.1%/year.

  14. GOME Satellite NO2 Trends (1995-2002) Richter et al., 2005

  15. Courtesy NOAA, Kim et al.

  16. Satellites provide best source of ambient NO2: Accountability and Trends Figure 20. Left - superimposed Eastern U.S. emission and combined GOME and SCIAMACHY NO2 1997-2002 trends (Kim et al., 2006); right - GOME NO2 trends from 1995 – 2002 (after Richter, 2005). Clear evidence of reductions in midwest U.S. and European NOx emissions, and increased NOx generated in Eastern Asia. Figure 21. 2004 OMI NO2 column images aggregated for all Fridays (left) and Sundays (right) indicating weekend/weekday patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions (source, Husar).

  17. MANAGING MULTIPLE SPATIAL SCALES

  18. 8-hr ozone PM2.5 (annual driver) Regional Rules New PM Standards Daily/annual drivers Biogenics Regional science Initial CAA 1970 2000 2010 1990 Local/urban Regional Hemispheric Evolutional change in National Air Pollution Management Climate-AQ Hemispherical Transport 2050

  19. Hemispheric > 1000 km Regional > 200km Urban 15–50 km Local< 5 km methane PAN CO2 CHC metals O3 Primary PM2.5 POPs Hg CO UFs,Source Specific PM, gases HNO3 Secondary PM2.5 Primary OC (fires) Secondary PM2.5 Hg O3 Hg VOCs PAN HAPs VOC PM2.5 dust NOx

  20. April 2001 Dust Transport Event Observed from TOMS April 11/10 April 10/9 April 9/8 April 14/13 April 13/12 April 12/11 International transport/climate interactionsScale: global/regional

  21. 2006 Dust Transport Event Observed from CALIPSO Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 25 Aug 22 5 km Aug 28 3 km Aug 23 David Winker

  22. New findings on roadway pollution Relative Particle Number, Mass, Black Carbon, CO Concentration near a major LA freeway High exposure to ultrafine particles, CO, other pollution near roadway Increased risk near and on roadways

  23. Example: New Haven, CT 70% of block group centroids are within 500m from a major road >10,000 ADT

  24. Factors affecting a health outcome Physical State Mental State outcome Pollution dose Genetic Disposition Diet

  25. Moving toward

  26. Multi-Pollutant Analytical FrameworkFuture = National Air Pollutant Assessment Legend Modeling Platform In Place Emissions Inventory NEI Control Strategies Ambient Data Requires development Co$T Air Quality Modeling CMAQ/AERMOD Regional Local e.g., PHASE Spatial Surfaces Criteria Pollutants Air Toxics Exposure/Risk Analysis Ecosystems Exposure/Risk Analysis HEM/HAPEM Exposure/Risk Analysis BenMap Benefits Assessment Benefits Assessment Benefits Assessment BenMap

  27. Total column depth (through Satellites) AQ model results Vertical Profiles Land AQ Monitors Integrated Observation- Modeling Maximizing space/time/composition through systems integration • Integration of systems to improve • air quality models for forecast • Current and • Retrospective assessments • Global-Regional Air Quality Connections • Climate-AQ connections Optimized air chemistry Characterizations ecosystems accountability Air management Exposure/Health

  28. Simple integration of of Model outputs and observations; Eastern U.S.fused PM2.5 surface

  29. Parallel Information Technology solutions to enable integrated assessments

  30. Mercury Deposition From All Sources: 2001 Mercury – a multiple scale, multiple media Assessment challenge Mercury Deposition from US Power Plants: 2001 Mercury Deposition from US Power Plants: 2020 with CAIR & CAMR

  31. Questions • How can efficiencies across observation networks be enabled? • What are reasonable roles of space-based and ground based agencies? • How can GEOSS and related organizing structures help? • How do we commit to the pain of integration?.... harmonization …beyond QA/QC..(across and within systems and time trends) • What drives observation design? And other top-down, bottom-up conundrums…

  32. Fine Particle Reductions Work Steubenville Kingston St. Louis Watertown Topeka Portage PM pollution (including sulfates) declines accompanied by reduced mortality risk Layden et al (2006). Effect of Reduction in Fine Particulate Air Pollution and on Mortality: A extended follow-up in of the Harvard Six Cities Adult Cohort

  33. relatively straightforward emissions strategy SO2 NOx Projected, w/ CAIR Source: EPA

  34. Health Effects:Symmetries in atmospheric and cellular level chemistries Source, Harrison, 2006 Atmospheric Pathways Source, Harrison, 2006 Reactive Oxidant Cell Chemistry Processes Hypothesized effect

  35. Consequences of new standards

  36. New PM NAAQS 2006 • Annual NAAQS 15 ug/m3 • 24 hour 98th percentile NAAQS 35 µg/m3 • From 65 µ g/m3 • Implications ….new definition for anomalous events • Increased relevance of remote sensing information • PM10 remains • Requirements for PM10-2.5 monitoring • focus on urban coarse PM resuspended by heavy traffic, industrial sources, and construction • excludes rural dust uncontaminated by urban, industrial sources (excludes agriculture, mining, wind blown dust

  37. Major Ozone Standard changes • 1 hour to 8 hour standard (late 1990’s) • Transition from urban to regional assessments • Recent 8 hour 80 (84) ppb to 75ppb • Raises importance of background ozone, transport and climate-AQ interactions

  38. Ozone revitalization after the PM onslaught • Research $ exploded for PM in the late 90’s -2000’s • What happened to fundamental oxidant research?

  39. .OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : One-Atmosphere PM2.5 SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3] VOC + OH ---> Orgainic PM One Atmosphere Ozone Visibility One Atmosphere Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM) .OH NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3 Acid Rain Water Quality SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4 NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification, Eutrophication) NO2 + OH ---> HNO3 OH <---> Air Toxics (POPs, Hg, etc.) Air Toxics We need to re-respect the Center of the Environmental Assessment Universe… C. Jang

  40. Monitoring

  41. There is a wealth of measurements, but is it aligned for current drivers?

  42. Depositionand surface water chemistry Networks

  43. Scarcity of routine soil and surface water/chemistry

  44. Consider importance of meteorological systems e.g., Solar radiation networks UV networks Aeronet sun photometers

  45. Air quality focused radar profilers

  46. Comments on how satellite data really support air program management – ordered attempt • Direct incorporation into emissions inventory process • 2002 NEI and 2005 fire components utilize satellite data • Inverse modeling, top-down construction of emissions • Generally for hemispheric scale applications • Accountability – (e.g., NOx EGU reductions) • Constraining air quality model evaluation (and EIs) by providing consistent vertical column information • Direct Boundary condition Observations and conceptual modeling of transport events • Spatial gap filling • Most attractive marketing item

  47. Recommendations(integration) • In addition to speciated dry Hg

  48. Sequencing Model Evaluation Steps

  49. Recommendation 1: Support required deployment of 75 surface stations designed to constrain regional model evaluation, link to satellites, service accountability and epidemiological studies (not compliance sites) NCore network: 75 Level 2 sites of collocated trace gases and aerosol components in “representative” mix of urban and regional areas – included in 12/06 PM NAAQS revision

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