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A Swedish perspective on adaptation to Climate Change

A Swedish perspective on adaptation to Climate Change. Jörgen Nilsson Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norköping. Nordic hydropower in % of total electricity production. Norway 100% 123 TWh Sweden 45% 66 TWh Finland 12% 8 TWh (approximate figures).

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A Swedish perspective on adaptation to Climate Change

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  1. A Swedish perspective on adaptation to Climate Change Jörgen Nilsson Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norköping

  2. Nordic hydropower in % of total electricity production • Norway 100% 123 TWh • Sweden 45% 66 TWh • Finland 12% 8 TWh • (approximate figures)

  3. Inflow to the Swedish hydropower reservoirs in relation to the average for the period 1950-2006 (TWh/year) Source: Svensk Energi

  4. We need regional information 300x300km 50x50km Source: Monitor No. 18, 2003

  5. Emission scenario A2 Emission scenario B2 Precipitation change downscaled by the regional RCO: ECHAM4/OPYC3 HadAM3H

  6. Annual runoff change (mm) Hadley/A2 Annual runoff change (mm) Hadley/B2 Annual runoff change (mm) Echam/A2 Annual runoff change (mm) Echam/B2

  7. National hydrograph for Sweden 1961-1990 vs 2071-2100

  8. Future production potential in Swedish rivers 1961-1990 vs 2071-2100

  9. Implications: Less demand for heating … but more for cooling 1961-1990 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 CDD HDD Heating degree days per year, T<17oC Cooling degree days per year, T>20oC A2

  10. Swedish guidelines on hydrological design of dams

  11. Upgrading of dam safety, new spillway for the Håckren dam

  12. Impacts on designfloods in Sweden % change in design flood peak, 1961-1990 vs 2071-2100

  13. Changes in 100-years floods according to E/A2 and E/B2scenarios

  14. Changes in 100-years floods according to H/A2 and H/B2scenarios

  15. The Nordic energy sector is very sensitive to global warming: • It effects production (inflow to hydropower, wind, biomass) • It effects consumption (heating) • It effects safety (storms, dam safety) • It effects distribution (storms)

  16. The most evident impact is that on hydropower, impacts on wind power are more inconclusive • Hydropower production is expected to increase • The annual rythm in river flow will be more favorable • Impact on dam safety is not self-evident and has to be analysed carefully, case by case • The development of the future European energy market will have strong impact on the Nordic hydropower industry

  17. The Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability • Addresses impacts, vulnerability, responsibilities and costs due to climate change • Sub-report on flooding, November 2006 • Final report, October 2007

  18. Mälaren Stockholm Karlstad Örebro Hjälmaren Vänern Vättern Göta älv Gothenburg Future flood risks around the big Swedish lakes

  19. Stockholm 1924

  20. Stockholm in April 2003 Foto: Sten Bergström, SMHI

  21. Lake Mälaren and Stockholm, summary of the problems • Decree for regulation in 1943 • Pressure on exploitation, shore lines are not secure under today’s climate. Important downtown infrastructure is at risk, including the subway • Important shipping • But… • No river downstream hinders discharge • Sea level rise is compensated by uplift of land • Climate change does not seem to increase the problems

  22. Uplift of land in Sweden (mm per year)

  23. Large land slides in the Göta älv valley 1: Jordfallsskredet 1150, 65 har 3: Intagan 1648-07-10, 27har 6: Ballabo mars 1733, 3 har 9: Utby 1806-12-21, 4,5 har 10: Västerlanda ca 1830, >5 har 12: Surte 1950-09-29, 24 har 14: Göta 1957-06-07, 32 har 15: Agnesberg 1993-04-14, 0,25har 16: Ballabo 1996-04-16, 0,7 har Source: Statens Geotekniska Institut

  24. Inundated areas at peak level if Climate Changeis considered will be about 50 cm higher than today

  25. Changes in the 100-years levels and return periods for Lake Vänern according to climate scenarios

  26. Tunnel?

  27. Attractive near-shore developments in the city of Karlstad Foto: Sten Bergström, SMHI

  28. Vänern- Göta älv, summary of the problems • Decree for regulation in 1937 • Pressure on exploitation, shore lines are not secure under today’s climate • Hydropower in the river • Important shipping • Unstable geology limits discharge in the river. Land slides may risk water supply for 700 000 citizens • Sea levels hinder discharge • Climate change increases the problems

  29. Conclusions • Big lakes mean big problems in metropolitan areas • Today’s flooding problems will be aggravated by climate change in western Sweden • Stockholm can be secured by a doubling of the discharge capacity of Lake Mälaren • There is no simple solution for Lake Vänern and River Göta älv. A combination of measures will be needed. • Cautious physical planning is necessary to avoid future problems everywhere

  30. How to handle all that unavoidable uncertainty? • Use ensembles of climate models and scenarios • Develop flexible adaptation strategies • Add safety margins wherever reasonably possible • Communicate!

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